The BCS is a murky swamp right now filled with would-be contenders, championship hopefuls and a few pretenders. Questions abound as the Oregon Ducks continue to plummet in the rankings, while Clemson and South Carolina attempt to continue their late-season pushes towards the top of the BCS. However, nothing is bigger than the Iron Bowl game this weekend, which features two Top-5 teams. Let’s get to the line movement this week in college football betting.

Oregon State Beavers at No. 13 Oregon Ducks -22 (Friday)

The linemakers have been waiting for the injury report on quarterback Marcus Mariota to come out, but the quarterback himself has stated his intentions to play. Even still, there is reason to believe that the Ducks are in serious trouble here. Mariota has been battling concussion and knee problems over recent weeks, and a glaring 16-42 loss against Arizona absolutely buried their chances of appearing in a top-level bowl game. At just 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games, the betting community is slowly but surely turning their backs on the Ducks.

That being said, it’s not like Oregon State poses a tremendous amount of value. They’re stuck in a 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS run over the past month of college football betting and have been in an absolute rut offensively. The offense that is led by Sean Mannion, who still leads all quarterbacks in terms of passing yards, has suddenly become turnover prone. They have averaged a pitiful 17.5 points per game during their four-game losing skid.

The intriguing element in this game comes with both Oregon State’s road record and Oregon’s strong performances at home. The Beavers are 4-1 ATS when travelling this season, and they have managed to cover as road dogs twice as well. Even with Mannion’s struggles, there will be a small faction of bettors that believe he is still capable of challenging a troubling Oregon defense that has allowed an average of 28.2 points against in their past five games.

Oregon is usually an automatic bet at home, but their 1-2 ATS record when serving as hosts, as well as the worrisome injuries to Mariota, leave a sliver of hope open for the road dogs.

Michael Stewart CarbonSports Lines Manager:

“We opened Oregon -21.5, and with nearly 75% of the early money on the favorite we went to 22 early yesterday morning.  The Ducks have attracted overwhelming action this year from our bettors, and while they were cashing early in the season, that’s simply not the case anymore.  They’re 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, losing 2 of them outright.  No question this team has lost its appeal from our bettors.”

No. 6 Clemson Tigers at No. 10 South Carolina Gamecocks -4

Very quietly, the Clemson Tigers have roared back in the BCS standings since their blowout loss against Florida State. The Tigers are now 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS since that defeat and are sneaking up the charts while rebuilding a following by covering the line in the last three weeks. The betting public seems to prefer them slightly this weekend against South Carolina despite the circumstances of the game.

South Carolina is still a great home bet on the moneyline, and they are 5-0 SU in their last five games at Williams-Brice Stadium. However, they’re also just 2-3 ATS in those games. Their defense has been outstanding during that stretch, allowing just 17.4 points against in their last five games overall and are coming off a huge 70-10 victory at home against a -34.5 handicap. This defense will need to be at their best against a talent like Tajh Boyd.

Former Heisman hopefuls Jadeveon Clowney and Boyd will be the focal point of this game, but the latter has simply been more effective in impacting games overall. This line has the potential to continue sliding down from where it opened at -5.0 as the weekend inches closer.

Michael Stewart CarbonSports Lines Manager:

“We opened South Carolina -5.5 in their game vs Clemson, and to our surprise all the early money came pouring in on the dog.  We immediately went to South Carolina -5, but we weren’t there long, and we settled on -4.5, all this happening from Sunday’s opener to Monday morning.  With more money coming in on the dog, we went to South Carolina -4 late yesterday, and since going to that number, we’re starting to see money show on the favorite.  I could see us going back to 4.5, and at this point I think we’ve seen as low as we’re going to go on this game.”

 No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide -11 at No. 4 Auburn Tigers

This line hasn’t moved at all, but since it’s easily the best and most important matchup of the week, I couldn’t help but include it here. The Iron Bowl promises to be an absolute thrill ride, and the betting public is decisively split on this line. And they should be. Alabama has been a freight train this season at 11-0 SU and 6-4-1 ATS, but no team has built a more incredible bandwagon than the Auburn Tigers.

The last time Auburn beat Alabama at the Iron Bowl, a force of nature named Cam Newton was involved. Current quarterback Nick Marshall isn’t anywhere close to the phenom that Newton was at the college level, but he’s the type of shifty playmaker that Alabama has struggled with. Marshall has thrown just 1,530 yards and nine touchdowns but has also rushed for 823 yards and another nine scores on the ground. Again, he’s no Manziel and he’s no Newton, but he is a massive potential headache for even this Alabama defense.

The other reason that people are rushing towards Auburn’s side of the Iron Bowl line is because of some historical betting trends. Nick Saban is 0-5 SU when playing an Auburn team that has at least nine wins. On top of that, it’s impossible to ignore how incredible the Tigers have been as a betting powerhouse in the sportsbook.

Most of the experts and sharps are leaning towards Alabama because they’re the best team in the country by a country mile, but Auburn possesses tons of fun upset potential. This line won’t budge from where it is at, and where you end up laying your money depends on two things: do you believe in the reigning champions or are you willing to ride with one of the hottest teams in the country? It’s a jagged pill either way for the college football betting universe.

Michael Stewart CarbonSports Lines Manager:

“We opened Alabama -11, and we haven’t had to move off our opening number.  So far we’ve seen great, two-way action on this game.  It’s a situation where both these teams have seen plenty of betting support this year from our bettors, and our bettors have been rewarded with lots of winning tickets from that support.  So we essentially have two very public teams, so they’re each going to see plenty of money this week.  We might not even have to move this line, and at this point, we haven’t.”

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