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NCAA Football Predictions: Week 10 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 10/27/2025

College football Week 9 opening line report Julian Sayin Ohio State

The final week of October delivers Halloween candy for children and rising anticipation for football fans. In just eight days, the first in-season College Football Playoff poll will be released on November 4. Calling it a departure from the preseason rankings would be a colossal understatement. While much of the season still lies ahead, the 2025–26 campaign has already carved out a strange chapter in college football's storied history. Parity has dominated the landscape, thrilling fans and frustrating handicappers. Yet amid the chaos, one bastion of strength and consistency has remained.

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Scarlet and Sure

The defending national champion, Ohio State, has delivered a dominant season amid the chaos of FBS football. They are one of six undefeated teams left in the nation and the only program with a perfect against-the-spread (ATS) record. The lone blemish is a push as a 28-point favorite against the Ohio Bobcats of the Mid-American Conference. Ohio State leads the country in scoring defense, allowing just 216.9 yards and 5.9 points per game through seven contests. At +250, they hold the lowest odds to win the national title. Right now, no team looks better.

In the immortal words of Lee Corso, "Not so fast, my friend." Ohio State's season-opening win over then-No. 1 Texas has lost some luster due to the Longhorns' offensive struggles. The most potent offense the Buckeyes have faced is 6-2 Washington, which ranks 28th nationally and averages 35.5 points per game. Ohio State held them to just six points in a 24–6 win.

Ohio State's path to an undefeated regular season looks smooth, with bitter rival Michigan as the only remaining ranked opponent. History suggests that matchups are never easy, but will it be enough to validate an unbeaten yet untested Buckeye squad in their pursuit of back-to-back national titles?

Coaching Obituaries

There was only one change this week, but it was significant. LSU fired Brian Kelly yesterday after a 49–25 home loss to Texas A&M. The Tigers opened the season ranked No. 9 and climbed to No. 3 following their win over then-No. 4 Clemson.

The slide began with a 24–19 loss to No. 13 Ole Miss in Oxford. LSU briefly steadied with a 20–10 win over South Carolina, but back-to-back defeats to Vanderbilt and Texas A&M sealed Kelly's fate.

College head coaches may need a new safety net. Massive buyouts no longer guarantee job security. Kelly became the second coach in October to be dismissed with a buyout of $50 million or more, joining Penn State's James Franklin. Ironically, Franklin has already been floated as a possible replacement.

Coaches Waiting to Walk "The Green Mile"

Sherrone Moore, Michigan: Moore is channeling his inner James Franklin, winning and losing the games he's expected to. Franklin's miracle win over Ohio State in 2016 bought him eight years of goodwill. That kind of credit isn't in store for the second-year coach in Ann Arbor.

Luke Fickell, Wisconsin: Fickell's continued presence is remarkable. The fact that his job security is still a topic of discussion might be one of the most incredible survival acts in coaching history. The real question is how long Wisconsin Athletic Director Chris McIntosh will remain in place to protect Fickell.

Hugh Freeze, Auburn: Years ago, I had a vivid dream that Morgan Freeman had passed away. It felt so real that I told my wife, who had the same dream. We were both relieved to learn it wasn't true. I'm having a similar reaction now, minus the wife and the relief.

Bill Belichick, North Carolina: Belichick's debut season in Chapel Hill has been memorable for all the wrong reasons. It took him one NFL team before he found his footing in New England, and winning the lottery with the 199th pick in his first draft didn't hurt.

We had a rough go of it last week, losing our Delaware and Missouri plays, while cashing on Washington. The Missouri play hurt more than most because the Tigers' QB, Beau Pribula, is from my hometown and was having a great season until he went down in 3rd quarter with a serious leg injury.

Florida International University Panthers vs. Missouri State Bears (-3.5/51.5) Thursday, October 29, 8:00 p.m. CBSSN

Missouri State enters at 4-3 overall and 2-1 in Conference USA, riding a two-game win streak into a favorable home matchup against FIU (3-4, 1-2). The Bears' passing attack averages 267 yards per game, exploiting FIU's porous secondary, which allows nearly 270 yards per game, while their modest rushing game keeps defenses honest. Defensively, Missouri State limits opponents to 141 rushing yards, countering FIU's ground-heavy offense and forcing a below-average passing unit into uncomfortable spots. With a spread hovering around 3.5 to 4.5, Missouri State's ability to control tempo and win third downs positions them to cover, especially given FIU's road struggles and the Bears' strong track record when favored.

PICK: Missouri State -3.5

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Houston Cougars (-14.5/49.5) Saturday, November 1st, Noon FS1

Houston enters this Big 12 clash at 7-1 overall and 4-1 in conference play, ranked 22nd nationally and fresh off a win over Arizona State, while West Virginia limps in at 2-6 and 0-5 in the Big 12. Favored by 14.5 to 15.5 points, the Cougars boast a balanced offense averaging 381 yards and 29 points per game, led by efficient quarterback Conner Weigman and a rushing attack paced by Dean Connors. Their defense allows just 331 yards and 19 points per game, countering West Virginia's run-heavy scheme and exposing a weak passing game that averages only 177 yards per game. Houston's ability to control possession, force third-down stops, and exploit defensive mismatches sets up a comfortable win at TDECU Stadium. With West Virginia struggling on the road and ranking near the bottom in third-down efficiency, we expect a relatively easy Cougar cover.

PICK: Houston -14.5

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Ohio State University (-20.5/43.5) Saturday, November 1, Noon FOX

Top-ranked Ohio State enters this Big Ten matchup at 7-0 and 4-0 in conference play, while Penn State stumbles in at 3-4 and winless in the Big Ten amid a four-game skid and coaching turmoil. Favored by about 20.5 points at home, the Buckeyes bring a balanced offense averaging 431 yards per game, led by precise sophomore quarterback Julian Sayin and elite receivers Jeremiah Smith and Brandon Inniss. Their defense, anchored by Caleb Downs and Sonny Styles, allows under 100 rushing yards and forces turnovers at a high rate, perfectly suited to disrupt Penn State's inconsistent attack behind backup QB Ethan Grunkemer and RB Kaytron Allen. With an eight-game win streak in the series and dominant home covers, Ohio State is poised to control field position, exploit mismatches, and build a decisive lead early, likely cruising to a 38-10 or 41-13 win.

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