College Football Playoff Odds and Predictions: Pros and Cons
With the College Football Playoff set to begin on Friday night, now is the time to get in on the betting action that surrounds the 12-team tournament. After last year’s results, it is a bit interesting to see that the Top Four teams have the best odds of the field. Nonetheless, it is one less win that those teams need in order to hoist the trophy at the end of this thing. No matter what the seed, there are 12 teams that are in it to win it and believe they have what it takes to be crowned this year’s king of college football. Let’s dive into what the odds makers think and why they will or won’t win this season’s National Championship.
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No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes +195
Why they will: They are the most complete team in the country.
It is no surprise to see Ohio State atop this list even after losing to Indiana in the Big 10 Championship game. This is a team that has only played two one possession games this season. They have a balanced offensive attack that averaged 35 PPG and well over 400 YPG. Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate combined for nearly 2,000 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns. Not only that, but they had a 1,000-yard rusher in Bo Jackson. Not only is the offense littered with NFL talent, but the defense allowed just 8.2 PPG this season. They are the only team in the nation to allow less than 10 PPG. Good luck moving the ball against this defense, the Heisman Trophy winner barely did.
No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers +310
Why they will: Defense and The Heisman.
Speaking of good defenses, Indiana could have a claim in having the best defense in the country. They allowed just 10.8 PPG against a slightly tougher schedule than the Buckeyes. D’Angelo Ponds might be the best lockdown cornerback in the country and Rolijah Hardy and Isaiah Jones are do it all linebackers for the defense. They too have an elite wide receiver duo in Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt who combined for 24 touchdowns this season. Their offense ranked fifth in the country in scoring while their defense ranked second. This is a tough team, and their coach wins. Google him.
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs +600
Why they won’t: The Path.
It is hard to argue that the Bulldogs have the toughest path to the National Championship this season. Though they have a Bye in the first round, their second-round matchup will likely be against Ole Miss. This is a Rebels team that had the lead in Athens for about 80% of the game, before Georgia’s fourth quarter comeback. If Georgia is able to sneak past the Rebels again, then they have a likely matchup with Ohio State. Georgia is elite, but this isn’t the same elite Georgia team we have seen in recent years. Expect them to be a likely upset candidate in the second round, and a victim of the dreaded ‘First Round Bye.’
No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders +850
Why they will: They aren’t taken seriously.
You know by now that the Red Raiders were legit enough to win the Big 12. They dominated BYU twice this season and added enough to the resume to secure a Bye. You have heard of the mustache linebacker crew, led by Jacob Rodriguez, and the play making Behren Morton. However, you should know that this team also ranks inside the Top Five in both scoring offense and defense, joining only Indiana in that accomplishment. You can write off the Big 12 as a weaker conference, because it no doubt is, but Texas Tech dominated and they are going to show up on the national stage.
No. 5 Oregon Ducks +850
Why they won’t: They just aren’t elite.
Yes, the top three seeds in this year’s tournament played close, one possession, games over the course of the regular season. However, this is an Oregon team that needed two overtimes to beat a struggling Penn State, needed a last second drive to knock off Iowa, and was dominated by Indiana. Oregon’s most impressive win is against an USC team with no defense. The defense is solid, and they have the easiest matchup in the playoffs to start with, but there is no way they will be able to move the ball against Texas Tech’s defense.
No. 6 Texas A&M Aggies +1900
Why they won’t: They are overrated.
Yes, they are. Much of the nation is in agreement with this statement after their loss to Texas to end the regular season. However, for those of you who need more convincing, read no further. On paper, this is a team who won 11 straight, including seven in the SEC. When you dig a little deeper you find that they beat Auburn by six points at home, only beat Arkansas by three and allowed 42 points in that game, and needed a miraculous comeback against South Carolina at home to win 31-30. The Aggies avoided all the tougher SEC opponents and they will be exposed during the playoffs.
No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide +2200
Why they won’t: Injuries
While Alabama did beat Georgia, in Athens, earlier this season, they could not replicate that in the SEC championship game. They were hurt. Heading into their Friday night matchup with the Sooners, they are still hurt. Jam Miller is back which could alleviate some of the pressure off of Ty Simpson, but LT Overton is still out, Josh Cuevas is questionable and there has no doubt been something going on with Ryan Williams. The Crimson Tide are motivated to avenge their regular season loss against the Sooners, but will they be healthy enough as they progress their way through the playoffs? That answer is an emphatic no.
No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels +2200
Why they will: Vengeance.
Ole Miss is one fourth quarter comeback away from being in the SEC Championship game and potentially a top seed in the tournament. They picked up big wins against Tulane, Oklahoma, and LSU this season and have the weapons needed to make a run. Yes, the Lane Kiffin saga has left the Rebels in a different spot, but perhaps they are more motivated to take home the National Championship now that their leader has jumped ship.
No. 9 Miami (FL) Hurricanes +2500
Why they will: Explosive Capabilities
Love him or hate him, Carson Beck is an experienced college quarterback that knows how to win. He also has some incredibly talented weapons around him. He led an offense that averaged over 34 PPG while maintaining a 74.7 CMP% throughout the course of the season. Freshman Malachi Toney brought in 970 yards and seven touchdowns while seniors Keelan Marion and CJ Daniels joined Toney in forming perhaps the best wide receiver trio in the nation. This team is full of big play potential and ready for the homerun ball at any time. If an explosive offense isn’t convincing enough, the Hurricanes defense ranked sixth in the nation in scoring. This is the best value pick in the playoff field.
No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners +4500
Why they won’t: No Offense
The Sooners are set for a first round upset. Yes, they did beat Alabama a few weeks ago. However, the Crimson Tide significantly outgained the Sooners on offense and if it wasn’t for a Pick Six, Alabama would have won. Their defense is legit, but the offense is just not there. John Mateer has become a little turnover happy as he has been exposed to better defenses and the offense has averaged less than 20 PPG over their last three games. It will be an ugly matchup, but Alabama will win this one. If the Sooners find a way to win, Indiana will make them look silly.
No. 11 Tulane Green Wave +75000
Why they won’t: We live in the real world.
Unfortunately for Tulane, there is just no chance they can find four wins in this tournament. They already lost to Ole Miss 45-10 earlier in the season, but even if they are able to pull off a first round upset, they have Georgia waiting for them. It’s nice to think about, but the Green Wave don’t have a chance.
No. 12 James Madison Dukes +75000
Why they won’t: We live in the real world.
This continues on here for the Dukes. While it is an incredible feat, the Dukes just don’t have the potential to win four straight games in this playoff. If they beat Oregon, they have Texas Tech to deal with. Unfortunately for both Tulane and James Madison, they are likely the duo that ends the Group of Five bid.
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