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2026 Texas Tech Red Raiders Football Predictions with Betting Odds and Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 7/31/2026

Texas Tech Red Raiders football predictions Will Hammond

It has been a whirlwind of a time for Texas Tech since last year’s early playoff exit. After winning the conference championship, Texas Tech looked like they could be primed for a run, but Oregon quieted them with a resounding 23-0 win. The Red Raiders got right back to work by bringing in a strong transfer class that was headlined by Brendan Sorsby. We all know the Sorsby saga that unfolded this offseason, and that has left the Red Raiders vulnerable at the quarterback position as they now have to rely on Will Hammond to lead them back to the playoffs. They play in a rather weak conference, and they will be in the playoff picture, but the question remains whether they can move from playoff caliber to championship caliber. Joey McGuire and his staff have shaped another strong roster, but there is now a huge question at quarterback, and their defense lost a lot.

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Texas Tech Red Raiders Summary of Last Season

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have taken advantage of NIL and have risen to one of the top tiers in college football. Last season, they got off to one of the hottest starts in college football history. They won their first six games, including a ranked win on the road against Utah, while never scoring less than 34 points and never allowing more than 17 points. Unfortunately, their season hit a bump in the road as they lost to Arizona State, 26-22. However, that loss was merely temporary and they went on to win their next six games, picking up two wins over ranked BYU, and winning the Big 12 championship. Unfortunately for the Red Raiders, their fire fizzled in the playoffs as Oregon eliminated them in the first round beating Texas Tech 23-0.

Texas Tech was one of the most complete teams in college football last season. They finished 10th in the country with 461.4 YPG, and they averaged just under 40 PPG (39.4). Behren Morton threw for 2,780 yards and he managed a 66% CMP%. He finished the season with 22 touchdowns and six interceptions. Cameron Dickey led the ground game for the Red Raiders as he finished the season with 1,124 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. J’Koby Williams was a dynamic backup as he finished with 868 rushing yards, and he tallied six rushing touchdowns. Caleb Douglas was Morton’s favorite target as he reeled in 846 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Reggie Virgil recorded 705 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns, while Coy Eakin finished behind him with 637 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Terrance Carter Jr. also recorded more than 600 receiving yards, and he hauled in five receiving touchdowns.

The defense was even better than the offense. The Red Raiders ranked third in the country in YPG allowed (258.3) and third in PPG allowed (11.8). Jacob Rodriguez put up a legitimate Heisman-caliber season by recording 128 tackles, six pass deflections, four interceptions, and seven forced fumbles. Ben Roberts added another 90 tackles from the linebacker spot, as well as five pass deflections, four interceptions, and two forced fumbles. Brice Pollock led the team with seven pass deflections, and five interceptions and David Bailey led the team with 14.5 sacks. Romello Height also added another 10 sacks.

Texas Tech Red Raiders Key Additions/Losses

Texas Tech ranks 12th in the country in overall returning production. They saw nine players get drafted in the NFL Draft. Bailey was first amongst them as he was drafted second overall by the New York Jets. He was followed by Rodriguez and Lee Hunter in the second round. Height and Douglas were drafted in the third round. Virgill (fifth round), defensive lineman Skylar Gill-Howard (sixth round), Morton (seventh round), and safety Cole Wisniewski (seventh round) rounded out the draft class.

Texas Tech refueled by putting together the sixth best transfer portal class of the offseason. They added wide receiver Malcolm Summons (Auburn), offensive lineman Jordan Church (Louisville), wide receiver and Donte Lee Jr. (Liberty) to the offense. The Red Raiders filled their defensive holes by adding defensive lineman Mateen Ibirogba (Wake Forest), linebacker Austin Romaine (Kansas State), edge rusher Adam Trick (Miami Ohio), cornerback Davin Martin (UTSA), edge rusher Trey White (San Diego State), and linebacker Corey Platt Jr. (Houston).

2026 Texas Tech Red Raiders Schedule Breakdown

The Red Raiders have an easy schedule. Playing in the Big 12 will be a huge benefit for them, and could give Hammond enough cushion to settle in. They have one of the easiest nonconference schedules out there as they play Abilene Christian, Oregon State, and Sam Houston State. Houston at home in Week Three could be a game to watch as that is early and Hammond may have some things to fix or the defense may be exposed in the first two weeks, and Houston is not a team to sleep on this year. In October they take a road trip to Colorado, host Arizona State, travel to Cincinnati, and then host Arizona. Their November schedule includes home games against West Virginia and TCU and two road trips against Oklahoma State and Baylor.

2026 Texas Tech Red Raiders X-Factors/Big Questions

Will Hammond

Hammond is coming off an ACL tear that happened late last season. He has also been tossed in the starting position after one of the most dramatic happenings in college football with the Sorsby saga. Now, he not only has the pressure of stepping in for Sorsby, but he has to do it fresh off a major knee injury. He is the biggest X-Factor for this Texas Tech team heading into the season. 

Can the defense shut down the Big 12?

This is another huge question. Texas Tech lost a lot of talent via the draft from their elite defense last season. While they did go out and add some high-level transfers, they are still not last year’s team. With the questions and limitations surrounding Hammond, Texas Tech may not be built for shootouts which could result in some resume destroying losses. They avoid BYU and Utah in the regular season, but they still have to earn a spot in the conference championship game and one of the biggest factors in that is whether or not the defense can get the opposition’s offense off the field.

2026 Texas Tech Red Raiders Notable Odds:

National Championship: +2000

Big 12 Champion: +105

Heisman Winner- Will Hammond: +5500

Predicted Win Total: 10.5 Games

2026 Texas Tech Red Raiders Predictions:

I think there is absolutely a trip up game for Texas Tech this season, and my pick would be that Week Three game against Houston. However, even with one loss, Texas Tech can still hit the over on the win total. Take the over as Texas Tech greatly benefits from an easy schedule. With one loss, they should return to the Big 12 Championship game, but do not expect this team to win that game or make a deep playoff run if they make it. Texas Tech will be a really good regular season team and if they get back into the playoffs, they will get run out really quickly like last season.

Prediction: Over 10.5 Wins, -220

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