NCAA Football Predictions: Week 3 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 9/14/2026

Two weeks into the 2026 college football season, the Big Ten has more questions than answers, and the Week 3 opening board doesn't hide it. Ohio State is still a 51.5- to 52.5-point favorite over Kent State after blowing a 20-point lead at Texas. Oregon, fresh off a loss to Oklahoma State, is expected to treat Portland State like a bye. USC opens as a 24.5- to 25.5-point road favorite at 0-2 Rutgers, a number that says as much about the Scarlet Knights' start as it does about Lincoln Riley's 3-0 Trojans. Michigan State is a 29.5-point underdog at Notre Dame. Indiana is sitting near 44.5 against Western Kentucky. The lines look lopsided because most of the conference is ducking real tests this week. For now, the market is pricing mismatches, not measuring sticks.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Unlike the topsy-turvy results in the Big Ten, the OLR's Week 2 scoreboard echoed Week 1, with a 2-1 record and a gain of 3 units. Missouri provided some Friday Night magic, handling their former Big 12 conference mate, Kansas, 38-21 and easily cashing our 5.5-point spread. The second team we backed on Saturday, the Crimson Tide of Alabama (-10.5), were actually losing 17-13 at half to Kentucky before shutting out the Wildcats and rattling off 32 unanswered points, leaving Lexington as a 45-17 victor. Our one loser, Oklahoma (-5.5), followed Week 1's Ga. Tech as a favorite who lost outright. The Sooners looked anemic against Michigan, losing 17-10. Another solid week puts our total record to 4-2 and +6 units.

September 18th- Friday

No. 22 Houston vs. No. 13 Texas Tech (-8/53) 8:00 pm FOX

Friday night in Lubbock is a different animal than a Saturday afternoon road trip, and that is the first problem Houston has to solve. Tech's edge is not flash; it is staying on schedule and making the visitor earn every first down once the crowd finds its voice. Houston can score in bunches when the protection holds and the first 20 plays look clean. It has not shown it can keep that going when the Red Raiders start winning the line and the game turns into a series of third-and-7s. The Cougars have enough speed to keep this from becoming a blowout early. They do not have enough proof that they can stop Tech from leaning on the run and chewing clock after the break. Eight points is the cost of playing a ranked team at home in a conference that rarely hands out quiet nights.

PICK: Texas Tech -8 (3-units)

September 19th- Saturday

Florida State vs. No. 10 Alabama (-20.5/49.5) 3:30 pm ABC

The number looks ugly until you watch how Alabama has been closing games. The Tide have been turning second halves into possession battles, shortening the field, and making the other side one-dimensional. Florida State has the pieces to keep a scoreboard from getting embarrassing for a half. It has not shown the same ability to survive four quarters against a defense that lives in the middle of the field and punishes sloppy downs. FSU can still hit a couple of explosive plays and make Tuscaloosa restless for a stretch. That is not the same thing as matching Alabama's physical standard once the scripted series are gone and the Tide start stacking efficient possessions. Twenty and a half in Bryant-Denny is the price of playing a team that already looks more complete. The low total only tightens the vise.

PICK: Alabama -20.5 (4-units)

No. 7 LSU vs. No. 8 Ole Miss (-2.5/59) 7:30 pm ABC

This one is going to be loud, messy, and personal before the first snap even lands. Both offenses can put up points, which is why the total sits where it does. The smaller number is about who is cleaner after the scripted stuff is gone and who wins the hidden yards. Ole Miss gets the building and the narrative. LSU has looked a little more consistent finishing drives and a little less dependent on the first 15 plays going perfectly. Oxford will make this feel like a one-score game for most of the night. The visitor still looks like the side that can steal a possession or two with field position and not need every throw to be perfect. Two and a half on the road in a game that will not stay pretty is a small price for that edge.

PICK: LSU -2.5 (5-units)

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Pick:	San Jose +0.5 (-155)
Start:	September 19, 2026 @ 7:30 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Soccer Take San Jose +0.5 (-155) over LAFC (7:30 p.m. EST, Saturday September 19) San Jose hadn’t won a match since the World Cup up until recently but lo and behold they have now won two straight and look like a completely different side. They manhandled a good San Diego side on the road in a 3-2 win that was more dominant than the final score might indicate. And last week they gutted out a 1-0 win here at home vs. a Houston side that is one of the top teams in the Western Conference. We were on San Jose in that one and mentioned in our writeup that one of the main problems with the Earthquakes since the World Cup break is that they were lacking confidence and now they seem to have it back in spades and their play has been exceptionally strong. They are now unbeaten in four straight matches, and they are back in a Top 4 spot in the West with a chance to move higher with three points here. We only need a draw however, to cash this ticket, and we think they can do enough to get at least a point. LAFC is coming off a 3-1 road loss at Kansas City, one of MLS’s worst sides. LAFC are behind the Earthquakes in the standings despite all the struggles San Jose has faced since the World Cup break. They have only one win in their last eight MLS matches, and this side is just not playing championship-caliber futbol right now. San Jose always raises their level of play when LAFC comes to town and have won five of the last six meetings here. Read More Read Less

NCAA Football Predictions: Week 3 Opening Line Report and Picks

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