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2026 Alabama Crimson Tide Football Predictions with Betting Odds and Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 7/29/2026

Alabama Crimson Tide football predictions Keelon Russell

Kalen DeBoer had incredibly big shoes to fill when he entered Tuscaloosa, perhaps the biggest ever. While he hasn’t brought a national championship to Alabama, he did put together a 10-win season and put Alabama back in the playoffs. While they were able to avenge their regular season loss to Oklahoma by eliminating them in the first round of the playoffs, they were completely embarrassed by Indiana in the next round. As DeBoer’s tenure continues to increase, the expectations are increasing as well. While NIL has put Alabama a step or two behind other programs, this program is still rooted in a strong tradition that the coaching staff needs to capitalize on. The biggest storyline around this football team is how well their quarterback play will be, and if there is enough there to keep them in the playoffs this season.

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Alabama Crimson Tide Summary of Last Season

The Alabama Crimson Tide finished with an 11-4 record on the season last year. They stumbled out of the gates, suffering a humiliating loss to Florida State (31-17). However, they rebounded nicely by destroying UL Monroe and Wisconsin in back-to-back weeks and then proceeded to win four straight games against ranked opponents. They took down Georgia on the road, Vanderbilt, Missouri on the road, and Tennessee in four consecutive games. They would later go on to lose their first game to a ranked opponent when Oklahoma beat them 23-21. Unfortunately, their 10-2 regular season was clouded by losing two of their final three games as they lost the rematch to Georgia and then got absolutely dominated by Indiana.

The Crimson Tide were not dominant on offense. They ranked in the lower half of the conference with 367.7 YPG, while averaging less than 30 PPG. Ty Simpson led the offense as he completed 3,567 passing yards and he completed 64.5% of his passes. He passed for 28 touchdowns, rushed for another two, and limited his interceptions to just five. The run game was atrocious for the Crimson Tide. Jam Miller led the team with just 504 rushing yards, and he recorded three rushing touchdowns. Daniel Hill led Alabama with six rushing touchdowns, while recording 284 yards on 75 carries. Germie Bernard was Simpson’s top target as the receiver brought in 64 receptions and tallied 862 yards and seven touchdowns. He was second in touchdowns to Isaiah Horton who tallied eight receiving touchdowns, while also recording 511 receiving yards. Ryan Coleman-Williams recorded 689 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns last season.

As for the defense, the Crimson Tide ranked third in the conference. They allowed just 296.8 yards per game, led by an elite secondary that held opposing quarterbacks to just an average of 169.9 passing yards per game. They also held opponents to just 19.2 PPG which ranked 20th in the country. Deontae Lawson led the team with 80 tackles, and he also added 1.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, and four pass deflections. Justin Jefferson was right on his tail with 79 tackles, and he recorded three sacks, five pass deflections, one interception, and one forced fumble. Yhonzae Pierre led the team with eight sacks, and Bray Hubbard led the team with eight pass deflections and four interceptions.

Alabama Crimson Tide Key Additions/Losses

Alabama ranks 90th in the country in returning production. They rank 119th in offensive returning production with a mere 35% mark. The Crimson Tide saw Simpson and Kadyn Proctor get drafted in the first round. Bernard followed in the second round. They also saw LT Overton (fourth round), offensive lineman Parker Brailsford (fifth round), Jefferson (fifth round), tight end Josh Cuevas (fifth round), cornerback Domani Jackson (sixth round), defensive lineman Tim Keenan III (seventh round), and Miller (seventh round) get drafted in last year’s draft. Alabama also saw significant talent leave via the transfer portal. Their departures were headlined by defensive lineman James Smith (Ohio State), Horton (Texas A&M), edge rusher Qua Russaw (Ohio State), offensive tackle Wilkin Formby (Texas A&M), defensive lineman Keon Keeley (Notre Dame), and edge rushers Jordan Renaud (Ole Miss) and Noah Carter (Georgia Tech).

As for the key additions, Alabama added defensive lineman Devan Thompkins (USC), wide receiver Noah Rogers (North Carolina State), defensive lineman Terrance Green (Oregon), offensive lineman Nick Brooks (Texas), as well as offensive tackle Ty Haywood (Michigan).

2026 Alabama Crimson Tide Schedule Breakdown

Alabama has one of the toughest schedules in the country this season. While all SEC teams have seen an uptick in strength of schedule thanks to the ninth conference game, Alabama’s is particularly difficult. Their three nonconference games of East Carolina, Florida State, and Chattanooga should result in wins. They open SEC play in Week Two with a road game against Kentucky, and they finish September with a home game against South Carolina. The next five weeks are tough. They travel to Mississippi State, host Georgia, play at Tennessee, host Texas A&M, and then travel to LSU. This five-game stretch will make or break the Tide’s season. They finish the year with a road trip to Vanderbilt before hosting Chattanooga and Auburn.

2026 Alabama Crimson Tide X-Factors/Big Questions

Will Alabama’s quarterback play be enough to get them in the playoffs?

Neither Austin Mack nor Keelon Russell have been officially tasked with the starting quarterback job, and this position battle could last into the season. Russell is the heir apparent as he has tremendous upside, but Mack has a bit more experience. However, Russell has the kind of upside that can result in a playoff appearance. Despite the upside, Russell has a lot to prove as a younger quarterback and he may need a few weeks to mature.

Can Kalen DeBoer win a national championship?

Here is the biggest question for Alabama fans due to their lofty expectations. DeBoer is not Nick Saban. However, he is an incredible coach that has gotten to the national championship before with less resources. Alabama fans need to continue to trust the process. The program did see an uncharacteristically large and significant exodus from the program via the transfer portal which isn’t a great sign, and NIL is hampering them a bit. Regardless, this is still a top tier program with plenty of resources to put together a championship caliber roster and DeBoer is the man for the job.

2026 Alabama Crimson Tide Notable Odds:

National Championship: +2200

SEC Champion: +850

Heisman Winner- Keelon Russell: +2200

Predicted Win Total: 8.5 Games

2026 Alabama Crimson Tide Predictions:

The Alabama win total is one I am staying away from. With the question marks surrounding the quarterback position and the amount of talent that left from last season, I am not high on the Crimson Tide this season. They have a tough October, and before they even get there, they have three games that could all sneak up on them in Kentucky, Florida State, and South Carolina. LSU, Tennessee, and Mississippi State are going to be tough environments for their quarterback to play in, regardless of who it is, and that could result in some more losses. I think the floor for this team is seven wins, but there are a lot of potential slip-ups and trap games on the schedule. If you insist on playing the win total, take the under. Alabama is going to be in for a tough season unless Russell turns heads from the get-go.

Prediction: Under 8.5 Wins, -102

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