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2026 Texas Longhorns Football Predictions with Betting Odds and Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 7/23/2026

Texas Longhorns football predictions Arch Manning

With yet another disappointing season in the past for Texas, now is the time for Steve Sarkisian and the folks in Austin to bring home a national championship. Texas struggled on the road a year ago, and that will be something to pay attention to this year as they have many important road games on the schedule. They have invested a lot of money in this year’s team, and Sarkisian has been ambitious and bold publicly this year getting his fans hyped for the ensuing campaign. However, it would not be a shock if this was his last year in Austin as it could all crash and burn if they fail to bring home a trophy.

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Summary of Last Season

The Texas Longhorns finished last season with a 10-3 record, finishing 13th in the AP Top 25. They opened the season with a road loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes (14-7) but then dominated the cupcake portion of their schedule. In three consecutive weeks, they took down San Jose State, UTEP, and Sam Houston State by a combined score of 120-17. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, October was not an easy month. They were upset on the road against Florida, losing 29-21. They also needed overtime to take down Kentucky and Mississippi State in back-to-back road games, both of which finished with a losing record. They were all but eliminated from the playoffs when they lost their second conference game, and their third game of the season, when Georgia dominated the Longhorns in Athens. Texas wound up in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl where they took down the Michigan Wolverines 41-27.

The Longhorns offense ranked in the middle of the SEC. They finished ninth in the conference with an average of 388.5 YPG, while averaging 30.5 PPG. Arch Manning led the way for the offense as he totaled 3,163 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, while also finishing with a 61.4 CMP%. He added another 399 yards on the ground with 10 more rushing touchdowns. Quintrevion Wisner led the rushing attack with 597 yards, averaging 4.6 YPC, and he finished with three rushing touchdowns and added another receiving touchdown. Ryan Wingo was Manning’s favorite target, bringing in 54 receptions, 834 yards, and seven touchdowns. DeAndre Moore Jr. followed with 532 receiving yards and four touchdowns, with Parker Livingstone right on his heels with 516 receiving yards and six touchdowns.

Their defense was also ranked in the middle of the conference, ranking eighth in yards allowed (338.8 YPG). They also held opponents to 20.7 PPG, in large part thanks to their play against the run. Defensive Back Jelani McDonald led the team with 80 tackles and three interceptions. Safety Michael Taaffe was always around the ball, tallying 70 tackles, a sack, and two interceptions. Linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. was tied with Taaffe in tackles (70), and he finished third on the team with four sacks, was tied for first with three forced fumbles, and he also recorded two interceptions. Edge rusher Colin Simmons led the team and finished fifth in the nation in sacks with 12. Simmons also forced three fumbles and has two pass deflections.

Texas Longhorns Key Additions/Losses

Texas ranks sixth in returning production in the country, bringing back 73% of their offensive production and over 60% on defense. They had six players drafted in the NFL Draft. Hill Jr. was the first Longhorns player selected with the 60th pick, and he was followed by corner back Malik Muhammed (4th round), linebacker/edge Trey Moore (4th round), Taaffe (5th round), offensive lineman DJ Campbell (6th round), and tight end Jack Emdries (7th round). The Longhorns lost Moore Jr. to Colorado as well as fellow receiver Livingstone to Oklahoma in the transfer portal. The transfer portal also took away Wisner as he headed to Florida State, interior offensive lineman Nick Brooks headed to Alabama, linebacker Elijah Barnes headed to Kentucky, and offensive tackle Liona Lefau transferred to Colorado.

The additions do outweigh the losses. The Longhorns brought in arguably one of the biggest portal additions when they signed wide receiver Cam Coleman who is coming over from Auburn. They also signed running backs Hollywood Smothers from North Carolina State and Raleek Brown from Arizona State. Defensive lineman Ian Geffard is transferring in from Arkansas, offensive tackle Melvin Siani is coming over from Wake Forest, linebacker Raheem Biles from Pittsburgh, cornerback Bo Mascoe from Rutgers, tight end Michael Masunas from Michigan State, wide receiver Sterling Berkhalter from Wake Forest, and linebacker Justin Cryer from Florida State. This portal class ranks third behind fellow SEC rivals in LSU and Ole Miss.

2026 Texas Longhorns Schedule Breakdown

Texas has one of the toughest schedules in the country, and they will need to survive their conference schedule if they wish to break back into the playoff picture. They open the season with three straight home games, Texas State in Week One, Ohio State in Week Two, and UTSA in Week Three. While Ohio State is considered the best team in the country heading into the 2026 season, this early season showdown will be really telling for both teams. Texas will then open conference play with a road trip to Knoxville to take on Tennessee before meeting Oklahoma on October 10th. After their rivalry game against the Sooners, the Longhorns will finish October with three straight home games against Florida, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State. November isn’t going to be any kinder to them as they finish the season with road trips to Missouri, LSU, and Texas A&M, with one home game against Arkansas sandwiched between LSU and Texas A&M.

2026 Texas Longhorns X-Factors/Big Questions

Does Arch Manning have what it takes to win the Heisman?

There is no excuse for Manning heading into the season. Sarkisian and the staff brought in Coleman to run with Wingo. They also brought in two elite tier running backs to balance the offense and boosted the offensive line with some incoming transfers. While Manning does play in the SEC and has a schedule with little breaks, he will need to improve on his production from a season ago. At +800, Manning has the second-best odds behind fellow quarterback CJ Carr. For Texas, a Heisman season from Manning will correlate with just how far this team can go in the playoffs.

Can Texas win on the road this season?

Last season, all three losses came on the road, and they needed overtime to beat two teams with a losing record on the road. This year, they only have four true road games, at Tennessee, at Missouri, at LSU, and at Texas A&M. Their home schedule isn’t easy either with teams like Ohio State and Ole Miss coming to town, and they have to take care of business against Oklahoma. There is little room for errors for Texas on the road this season. They will need some big wins if they hope to crack the playoff bracket this season.

2026 Texas Longhorns Notable Odds:

National Champion: +800

SEC Champion: +330

Heisman Winner- Arch Manning: +800

Heisman Winner- Cam Coleman: +10000

2026 Texas Longhorns Season Predictions:

The schedule features five games that could be considered toss-ups, Ohio State, at Tennessee, Ole Miss, at LSU, and at Texas A&M. The road game against Tennessee will be a composure test for the Longhorns as they will head into Neyland Stadium as a clear better team. The other four toss-ups are against teams who all have playoff aspirations and a lot to prove. These games are all spaced out for the Longhorns, which helps as long as they avoid the trap game. This Texas team is too talented to fail, and if they do Sarkisian will be shown the door. Expect Texas to bully their way through this schedule and escape with a couple of road wins down the stretch, playing spoiler to teams like LSU or Texas A&M. Take the over on the win total and expect a big year in Austin.

Prediction: Over 9.5 Wins, +118

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