NCAA Football Predictions: Week 6 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 9/29/2025

College football Week 6 opening line report Wayne Knight James Madison

Thirty FBS teams entered Week 5 with perfect records. The chaos began Friday night, when No. 24 TCU and No. 8 Florida State both fell on the road. Saturday added eight more to the loss column. Six ranked teams suffered their first defeat, though only TCU and Florida State lost to unranked opponents.

In previous years, a single loss could derail national title hopes. But with the 12-team playoff format introduced last season, these setbacks are no longer fatal. Still, for coaches like Penn State's James Franklin and LSU's Brian Kelly, the narrative of coming up short in marquee matchups persists.

The OLR's Week 5 picks fared better, finishing 3-3. We nailed the Duke-Syracuse game, hitting both the side and the total. Indiana led by a touchdown with three seconds left and possession at midfield. On fourth-and-19, quarterback Fernando Mendoza took the snap and sprinted 49 yards for a deliberate safety, leaving fans stunned.

Oregon and Penn State combined for just 13 points through three quarters, then exploded for 21 in the fourth. The game went to overtime, where Oregon prevailed as a 3.5-point underdog and pushed the total over.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Coaching Obituaries

Just one day after last week's OLR was released, Oklahoma State made headlines by cutting ties with longtime head coach Mike Gundy. Back in 1987, he quarterbacked what many still consider the greatest backfield in college football history, lining up alongside Thurman Thomas and Barry Sanders. After spending ten seasons as an assistant, Gundy took over in 2005 when Les Miles departed for LSU. Over the next 21 years, he compiled a 170-90 record, went 12-6 in bowl games, and delivered one unforgettable rant that still circulates today. With Gundy out, offensive coordinator Doug Meacham steps in as interim head coach while the Cowboys begin their search for a splashy replacement.

Arkansas became the fourth Power 4 program to change coaches, firing Sam Pittman after Saturday's 56-13 blowout loss at home to No. 22 Notre Dame. The Razorbacks opened the 2025 season with two wins against inferior opponents, but have now dropped three straight, each more lopsided than the last. Pittman leaves Fayetteville with a 32-34 overall record, although he was undefeated in bowl games, with a 3-0 record. His replacement is a familiar figure to Razorback fans. Bobby Petrino, who coached Arkansas from 2008 to 2011, returns as offensive coordinator. During his first stint, he posted a 34-17 record, went 2-1 in bowl games, and finished fifth in the 2011 polls before being fired for cause following a scandal involving a staff member. With Petrino back in the fold and the program in flux, Arkansas promises to be one of the most unpredictable and entertaining teams to watch for the remainder of the season.

Week 6

Western Kentucky vs. Delaware (-2.5/61.5) Friday, Oct. 3rd, 7:00 p.m.

Western Kentucky enters this Friday's matchup against Delaware as a +2.5 underdog, with the Hilltoppers boasting a strong 4-1 record both SU/ATS this season. Their offense, led by quarterback Maverick McIvor's 1,474 passing yards and 11 touchdowns against 2 interceptions, has demonstrated efficiency, particularly in recent wins, such as a 27-22 victory over Missouri State, where they accumulated over 400 total yards. Delaware, at 3-1, relies on a balanced attack, led by running back Jo'Nathan Silver's 326 rushing yards, but their defense has allowed an average of 26.3 points per game. The Blue Hens have been impressive in their first season at the FBS level, jumping out to a 3-1 SU/ 2-1 ATS record. However, the Hilltoppers, who have ruled CUSA with a 15-2 SU record in conference play, are a significant upgrade in quality of opponent. They have also been road warriors, going 7-3 SU/ATS in their last 10 games as road dogs of a field goal or less.

PICK: Western Kentucky +2.5

Navy vs. Air Force (+11/49) Saturday, Oct. 4th, Noon

The opening salvo of the 2025 Commanders' Cup series pits Navy against Air Force, with the Midshipmen entering as 11-point favorites behind a 4–0 start and an offense averaging 38.3 points per game. The attack is led by dual-threat quarterback Blake Horvath, who recently rushed for 110 yards and two touchdowns while throwing for 172. Navy's ground game has overwhelmed opponents, including a 21–13 win over Rice, where they dominated the rushing margin. Air Force, meanwhile, sits at 1–3 but ranks among the nation's top 10 in rushing, averaging 267.3 yards per contest. Defensive struggles have plagued the Falcons, most notably in a 44-point collapse against Hawaii. Air Force had controlled the rivalry, winning four straight from 2020 to 2023, but Navy flipped the script last season with a decisive 34–7 victory. Expect the Midshipmen to deliver a similar result this time around.

PICK: Navy -11 and OVER 49

James Madison vs. Georgia State (-18.5/54) Saturday, Oct. 4th, 3:30 p.m.

When Curt Cignetti left James Madison to become Indiana's head coach, many thought the Dukes' newfound success would evaporate. However, Bob Chesney has immediately made himself right at home in Harrisonburg, Virginia, going 9-4 last season and leading JMU to its first-ever bowl appearance. This year, the Dukes have a 3-1 record and are averaging 32.8 points per game offensively. Led by quarterback Alonza Barnett III, who threw for 593 passing yards and 4 touchdowns, JMU's balanced attack features strong rushing from Wayne Knight, who gained 341 yards and scored 3 times. Georgia State, at 1-3, relies on quarterback Cameran Brown's 376 passing yards and 5 touchdowns, but struggles with defensive lapses, allowing an FBS-worst 48 points per game. The Dukes are 4-1 SU in their last five games, but have covered the spread in all of them.

PICK: James Madison -18.5 and UNDER 54

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Start:	September 29, 2025 @ 8:10 PM
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NCAA Football Predictions: Week 6 Opening Line Report and Picks

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