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2026 Missouri Tigers Football Predictions with Betting Odds and Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 8/23/2026

Missouri Tigers football predictions Ahmad Hardy

The Missouri Tigers football team had a fall back to earth season a year ago as they posted just eight wins, finishing the season with a disappointing loss in their bowl game. Now, the roster looks completely different as we look ahead to this season. Eli Drinkwitz has brought in big time transfers at key positions as he looks to keep his Tigers amongst the best teams in the SEC. They return one of the nation’s best running backs, but they have a ridiculously tough schedule and a lot of question marks surrounding the program as they near opening kickoff.

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Missouri Tigers Football Summary of Last Season

Last season, the Tigers got off to an incredibly hot start. They began the season 5-0, picking up big wins against the likes of Kansas and South Carolina. Unfortunately, their undefeated season did not survive after their sixth game as Alabama survived a strong upset bid by the Tigers. That started a poor seven game stretch in which Missouri went just 3-4, picking up losses to Alabama, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma. They finished the season with an 8-4 record which was good enough to land them in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl against Virginia. Unfortunately, they fell short in that game, losing 13-7.

Missouri had a strong offense that ranked sixth in the SEC in YPG (416.3), and they averaged just over 30 PPG. Beau Pribula led the way for the Tigers offense, completing 67.4% of his passes for 1,941 yards and 11 touchdowns. He did throw nine interceptions, but he countered this with six rushing touchdowns and 297 rushing yards. Ahmad Hardy led the ground game with 1,649 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns. Jamal Roberts added another 753 rushing yards, as Hardy’s backup, and he finished with six rushing touchdowns. Kevin Coleman Jr. led the Tigers offense with 732 receiving yards on 66 receptions. Donovan Olugbode finished second on the team with 401 receiving yards and Marquis Johnson was right behind him with 340 yards. Brett Norflett led the team in receiving touchdowns with five despite only having 31 receptions on the season.

As for the Tigers’ defense, they were the strength of this team. They ranked eighth in the country in YPG allowed (277.3), and Missouri held opponents to just 18.9 PPG. Josiah Trotter led the team with 84 tackles, and he also added two sacks and a pass deflection. Nicholas Rodriguez added 61 tackles, and he led the team with seven pass deflections. Toriano Pride Jr. led the team with two interceptions, while Damon Wilson II led the team with nine sacks. Zion Young added another 6.5 sacks while Chris McClellan added six more for the Tigers defense. 

2026 Missouri Tigers Football Key Additions/Losses

Missouri ranks 76th in returning production this season with a 49% mark. Their big weak spot is that defense, as it ranks just 107th in returning production (40%). Missouri did have six players drafted in the NFL Draft. Young was the first Missouri player to hear his name called as he was selected in the second round. Trotter was then taken with the very next pick. The two Missouri second round draftees were followed by McClellan (third round), offensive tackle Keagen Trost (third round), Coleman Jr (fifth round), and Pride Jr. (seventh round). They also lost Wilson II (Miami), Johnson (Mississippi State), Pribula (Virginia), safety Marvin Burks Jr. (Wisconsin), and edge rusher Nate Johnson (Auburn).

While the defense lost its top three sack leaders, among many other key pieces, the Tigers coaching staff did bring in some big names in the transfer portal. They added linebacker Robert Woodyard Jr. (Auburn), edge rusher Kamauryn Morgan (Baylor), cornerback Elijah Dotson (Michigan), cornerback Kensley Louidor-Faustin (Auburn), and defensive lineman Donta Simpson Jr. (Miami). On offense, they added quarterback Austin Simmons (Ole Miss), wide receiver Cayden Lee (Ole Miss), offensive tackle Luke Work (Mississippi State), wide receiver Caleb Goodie (Cincinnati), and offensive tackle Josh Atkins (Arizona State).

2026 Missouri Tigers Football Schedule Breakdown

Their first five games are not so bad, but they will need a clean sweep to open the season if they wish to be a relevant threat in the conference. They open the season with Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Troy at home with a road game to Kansas sandwiched between. After that, they have a road trip to Mississippi State and a home game against Florida to open up conference play. Then it gets tough. The Tigers end October with a home game against Texas A&M and then two road games against Ole Miss and Arkansas. They play at home three times in November, but this portion of their schedule is anything but easy. They begin November with a home game against Texas. Then Missouri travels to Athens to take on Georgia, and then they end the season with back-to-back home games against Kentucky and Oklahoma.

2026 Missouri Tigers Football X-Factors/Big Questions

Can Ahmad Hardy Return to Elite Production?

This is an X-Factor that would define the season for Missouri. Hardy was shot in the leg during the offseason, and while he has made significant improvements with his rehab, he is officially going to miss the season opener for the Tigers. He does not have a specific timeline for his return, and it seems to be handled as a week-to-week status for Hardy. Missouri will need him to be ready to go in the back half of their schedule or they may be in for a long fall.

Is Missouri a Dark Horse in the SEC?

No. There is too much uncertainty about Hardy’s health and how the offense will function under Simmons. There is a lot of talent at the skill position areas, but it remains to be seen how the offense can compete with the big boy defenses of the SEC. Their schedule is also a huge obstacle as they will begin the season with five ranked teams on their schedule. Missouri will be fighting for a .500 record.

2026 Missouri Tigers Football Notable Odds:

National Championship: +8000

SEC Champion: +3500

Heisman Winner- Austin Simmons: +10000

Predicted Win Total: 6.5 Games

2026 Missouri Tigers Football Predictions:

I am staying away from Missouri this season. They are good enough to get upsets in their matchups against ranked opponents, but it is also easy to see them fall in some games early in the season, particularly on the road against Kansas and Mississippi State. I am going to take the under on the win total and stay away from any futures regarding this program.

Prediction: Under 6.5 Wins, -110

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