This Week in MLB Baseball Betting By the Numbers
by Aaron Smith - 4/29/2013
How quickly things can change in Major League Baseball. The Atlanta Braves were swept right out of Detroit by the Tigers this past weekend. The Braves no longer have the best record in baseball. That honor now belongs to the Boston Red Sox, who are 18-7 so far this year.
Boston is currently on a five-game winning streak. It certainly doesn’t hurt that Boston just had a four-game series with the hapless Houston Astros. The Astros are going to make a lot of teams look like World Series contenders this year. The schedule gets a lot tougher for Boston this week as they travel to Toronto and then Texas.
Baseball is a numbers driven game, and keeping track of the data can put you one step ahead of most bettors. Here is a look at some important numbers to keep an eye on when betting on baseball in the week ahead.
0- In their last seven games against the Atlanta Braves, the Washington Nationals have a grand total of zero wins. Washington is clearly one of the best teams in the National League, but lately the Braves have had their number. The Nationals have Strasburg, Gonzalez, and Zimmerman slated to pitch in this three-game series, so I like their chances of ending that slump.
5- Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has hit five home runs in 14 career at bats against Tim Lincecum. Overall, Goldschmidt has eight hits and 10 RBI in those 14 at bats. Lincecum will be on the mound for the Giants against the Diamondbacks on Thursday. One can only guess that Goldschmidt is really looking forward to Thursday’s game!
6- The “over” is 6-0 in Angel Hernandez’s six games behind home plate so far this year. The six games he has been behind the dish for have averaged 10.67 runs per game. In each of the last two years, Hernandez has called more games that went “under” than over though, so be careful putting too much stock into a short-term trend. It’s just something to keep an eye on.
7- The Pittsburgh Pirates have just seven wins in their last 51 games at Milwaukee. To say that the Brewers have dominated this series is about like saying the Harlem Globetrotters dominated the Washington Generals. Well, maybe not that bad, but you get the idea! Pittsburgh is 15-10 and at the top of the NL Central coming into this series. However, can they figure out how to win at Miller Park?
9- The Colorado Rockies have lost nine straight contests in which Jorge De La Rosa starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers. De La Rosa has a spectacular 2.86 ERA for the Rockies this year, but he’ll have to face the Dodgers on Tuesday night. Unless he can find a way to get Matt Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez out (both have an on-base-percentage of .440 against him), his 2013 ERA is likely to jump.
13- The Texas Rangers are 13-4 in Yu Darvish’s last 17 home starts. Darvish got his feet wet in the majors last year, but he looks primed to have a massive breakout season in 2013. Darvish is 4-1 with a 1.65 ERA so far this year. Anyone who has seen the pitch that Darvish froze Mike Trout with in his start on April 24 in Los Angeles knows just how nasty his breaking ball can be. Don’t be surprised if Darvish is battling for the American League Cy Young Award this year.
16- The under is 16-5 in the last 21 games between the Chicago White Sox and the Texas Rangers. Those two teams meet for a three-game series this week. Gone are the days where the Texas Rangers just try to outscore the opposition. Texas is first in the majors in team ERA at just 3.02. That number will likely go up in the hot summer days in Arlington, but this pitching staff is definitely one of the best in baseball.
21- The over is 21-5 in the Oakland Athletics 26 games this year. Oakland is first in the majors in runs scored per game at 5.31 per contest. I find it hard to believe that this offense can keep up this amazing offensive production. Remember, this is an offense that was dead last in team batting average for the majority of 2012. Regression to a more normal level is bound to come before long.
22- The Baltimore Orioles are 22-4 in their last 26 games following a loss. The Orioles have turned into a really confident bunch, which speaks volumes to the leadership of manager Buck Showalter. Next time you see the Orioles off a tough loss, don’t hesitate to look for some value on this club.
565- Bettors who have wagered $100 on the Arizona Diamondbacks in each of Patrick Corbin’s starts this year are now up by $565 already this season. That is the highest amount earned by any starting pitcher so far this year. Corbin is one of the best young pitchers in the game, and bettors would be wise to look for value on the Diamondbacks when he is on the mound.
Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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