This Week in MLB Baseball Betting By the Numbers
by Aaron Smith - 6/3/2013
It was an exciting week of interleague action last week, but for most teams it is back to facing familiar foes this week. The Mets four-game sweep of the Yankees really caught everyone off guard during Interleague action. That sweep as well as their series win in the Bronx put the Boston Red Sox back ahead in the American League East.
The National League East was expected to be one of the most competitive in baseball as well, but only the Atlanta Braves are above .500 going into today’s action. Washington has been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball, and the Phillies continue to prove that they are on a downward slide.
Baseball is a numbers-driven game, and keeping track of the data can put you one step ahead of most bettors. Here is a look at some important numbers to keep an eye on when betting on baseball in the week ahead.
0- On Tuesday night, the Kansas City Royals will host the Minnesota Twins. Kansas City is 0-6 in their last six home games against a right-handed pitcher. Minnesota is 0-5 in Samuel Deduno’s last five road starts. Somebody has to win. Who can break their winless streak?
2- There are two pitchers whose team hasn’t lost a game that they have started so far this year. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 11-0 in Patrick Corbin’s 11 starts this year. The Pittsburgh Pirates are 7-0 in Jeanmar Gomez’s seven starts so far this season. It’s pretty amazing that there are two guys still unbeaten two months into the year, and it’s even more improbable that it is two guys who very few people knew about before 2013.
5- The Houston Astros have won five straight games all as +200 or larger underdogs. I have trashed this team from the beginning of the season, but they definitely deserve some major credit for their recent play. Though they don’t have much talent on their roster, this clearly isn’t a team that has quit. Still, be careful expecting too much out of this squad the rest of the year!
7- The Tampa Bay Rays are 7-0 in Matt Moore’s last seven road starts. Moore will start Tuesday night in Detroit against the Tigers. Detroit is 54-22 in their last 76 home games, and Anibal Sanchez will be on the mound for the Tigers. Tampa Bay is just 3-12 in their last 15 meetings with the Tigers. This will be a tough test for Moore’s unbeaten streak on the road!
8- The number eight is important for a couple reasons in Tuesday night’s matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners. Chicago is 8-0 in their last eight games in Seattle. Seattle is 0-8 in their last eight Tuesday games. What is it about Tuesdays, anyways? Interestingly, Felix Hernandez will take the mound for the Mariners on Tuesday night against the White Sox. This is as good of a chance as they will ever get to break up both of those streaks.
20- Chris Davis leads the majors with 20 home runs already this year. Davis hit a career-high 33 homers in 2012 for the Orioles, but he only batted .270. This year Davis is hitting .357, and he has a stellar .440 on-base-percentage. Miguel Cabrera might have some MVP competition after all!
22- The Los Angeles Angels are 22-5 in Jered Weaver’s last 27 home starts against a team with a losing record. He’ll start at home against the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday night. Every time you think the Angels are going to make a run, they just turn around and lose a bunch of games to teams that they have no business losing to. When will the vicious cycle end?
350- Will Miguel Cabrera win the American League Triple Crown for a second straight year? BetOnline has “Yes” listed at +350. Obviously, it’s really hard to repeat the type of season he had last year, but he is off to another scorching-hot start.
1628- Moneyline bettors who have backed the Pittsburgh Pirates with a $100 wager on each of their games so far this year are now up $1,628 on the year. Pittsburgh continues to defy the odds and win despite the lack of big names in their lineup. It certainly doesn’t hurt that the Pirates have the second-best team ERA in all of baseball.
1700- After starting the season as a betting favorite to win the World Series, the Los Angeles Angels are now listed at +1,700 to win the World Series, according to odds from WagerWeb. It might seem tempting to grab the Angels at this kind of price, but bettors should resist the urge. The Angels have some long-term problems that aren’t going to be fixed overnight.
Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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