This Week in MLB Betting By the Numbers
by Aaron Smith - 8/26/2013
One month remains in the MLB regular season. The divisional races are really heating up. The National League Central and the American League East look like they’ll be the most entertaining. Baseball implementing a second wild card in each league has definitely made the playoff chase shape up a little bit differently. There are a lot more teams in the running than there were in past years. In the end, more competition is always a good thing for baseball.
Doesn’t this happen every year? The Detroit Tigers seem to “toy” with the American League Central early in the year only to get red hot as the season came to a close. They are doing it again in 2013! Detroit is 25-9 in their last 34 games overall. No wonder most oddsmakers have the Tigers listed as the World Series favorite.
Baseball is a numbers-driven game, and keeping track of the data can put you one step ahead of most bettors. Here is a look at some important numbers to keep an eye on when betting on baseball in the week ahead.
0- The Chicago Cubs are 0-7 in their last seven meetings with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Chicago comes into this series playing some bad baseball. Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, and Ricky Nolasco will start for the Dodgers in this three-game series. You have to like the Dodgers chances of running this streak to 10 straight games!
0- The Kansas City Royals are 0-6 in their last six games against a team with a losing record. It’s ironic that the Royals inability to beat teams like the Chicago White Sox was really the reason they were knocked out of playoff contention. This is still a young team, and over time they should get better at taking care of business against weaker teams.
1- The Philadelphia Phillies are a miserable 1-10 in their last 11 games against NL East foes. They will be in New York for three games against the Mets this week. The Mets have lost four straight going into this series as well. Both teams are looking bad, but someone has to win!
4- The Angels have won four straight games on the road after taking the final game in New York on Aug. 15 and then sweeping the Seattle Mariners this past weekend. Still, the number four isn’t always a good sign for the Angels. The Angels are 4-17 in their last 21 games against a team with a winning record. They’ll be in Tampa Bay this week to face a Rays team that is extremely tough to beat at home.
12- The Cleveland Indians are 12-3 in their last 15 games against a left-handed starting pitcher. The good news for them is they will face two left-handed starters in Alex Wood and Paul Maholm in Atlanta this week. The bad news is they have to find a way to beat the Braves in Atlanta, which is no easy task. Atlanta is 54-20 in their last 74 home games.
19- The “under” is 19-3 in John Lackey’s 22 starts in 2013. Lackey’s turnaround is nothing short of spectacular. This is a guy that Boston fans wanted nothing to do with a couple years ago, but he has come back stronger than ever after his most recent injury. Lackey has been the team’s most consistent pitcher this season.
23- The Baltimore Orioles are 23-10 in their last 33 games against the Boston Red Sox. They’ll be at Fenway Park for a three-game series this week. You better believe the Red Sox are looking to exercise some of those demons from when the Orioles cost them a playoff berth a couple years ago.
35- The St. Louis Cardinals are 35-16 in their last 51 home games against the Cincinnati Reds. The three-game series between these two this week is a huge series for both teams. The Reds are 2.5 games back while the Cardinals and Pirates are tied atop the NL Central.
128- Miguel Cabrera enters Monday night’s game with 128 RBI already this season. This is Cabrera’s 10th consecutive season with more than 100 RBI, and he is only 30 years old. Cabrera is somehow topping his amazing numbers from a Triple Crown season last year. You probably don’t need me to tell you this, but hitters like Miguel Cabrera don’t come around very often!
600- BetOnline now has possible 2013 World Series matchups odds listed, and it should come as no surprise that the favorite is the Detroit Tigers vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers at +600. Detroit vs. Atlanta is listed at +900. The Tampa Bay Rays vs. the Dodgers is listed at +1,000. The Red Sox vs. the Dodgers is listed at +1,100.
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