This Week in MLB Betting By the Numbers
by Aaron Smith - 7/22/2013
It was a nice little respite while it lasted, but after the all-star break it is full throttle all the way to October for Major League Baseball bettors. I hope everyone got rested up and is ready for the grind that is ahead.
Betting on baseball is totally different than betting on any other sport, and it requires a ton of preparation as well as self-constraint. You can’t make your baseball betting season awesome in the course of a month, but you can ruin a season in the course of a month if you get too aggressive with your selections. Stay on course through the ups and downs of the long season.
Baseball is a numbers-driven game, and keeping track of the data can put you one step ahead of most bettors. Here is a look at some important numbers to keep an eye on when betting on baseball in the week ahead.
0- The Oakland Athletics are 11-0 in their last 11 meetings with the Houston Astros. Oakland will be in Houston this week for a three-game series with the Astros. The Athletics are 8-0 in their last eight games at Houston. Sure, the Astros are a terrible team, but beating any team 11 straight times is an impressive feat!
0- The “under” is 7-0 in the Milwaukee Brewers last seven home games. Milwaukee came into the season looking like a team with a dangerous lineup, but injuries have really hurt this team’s offensive production. Aramis Ramirez is one of their best run producers, but he is currently on the disabled list. Corey Hart has missed all season. Ryan Braun hasn’t been completely healthy of late. A bad offense combined with a better-than-expected bullpen has helped Milwaukee games stay low scoring.
1- The San Francisco Giants have won only one of Tim Lincecum’s last seven starts. That one win came in his last outing which also happened to be a no-hitter. Lincecum threw 148 pitches in that game, so it will be interesting to see how he fares Monday night against the Cincinnati Reds. History tells us that pitchers generally struggle in their first game after a no-hitter, but the oddsmakers account for this when setting the line.
5- The Los Angeles Dodgers have won five straight contests as an underdog. While the Dodgers got off to a slow start, they are playing with fire right now. Yasiel Puig definitely deserves a lot of credit, but don’t overlook the hitting of Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez is batting .393 with a .445 on-base-percentage. Remember, Ramirez was seen as one of baseball’s top players a couple years ago. He is starting to look like that guy once again.
10- The Washington Nationals have lost 10 of Dan Haren’s last 11 starts. Haren was one of baseball’s best pitchers a few short years ago, but he hasn’t been the same pitcher the last couple seasons. He has struggled through injuries this year, and he hasn’t been able to find his form. Haren is 4-10 with a 5.61 ERA so far in 2013.
20- The Tampa Bay Rays are 20-4 in their last 24 games overall. Joe Maddon’s team went into the break on fire, and they didn’t let the break halt their momentum at all. Tampa Bay started the second half with a three-game sweep of the Blue Jays in Toronto. Tampa Bay’s task gets even tougher this week as they visit Fenway to take on the Red Sox. Tampa Bay is only a game and a half behind the Red Sox in the highly competitive AL East.
31- The Miami Marlins just played a three-game series in Milwaukee and failed to score a run. To make matters even worse, Sunday’s game went into extra innings. Miami has played 31 straight innings without scoring a run! We all knew the Marlins offense was really bad, but not scoring a run in 31 innings is just downright awful.
375- The Los Angeles Dodgers are now listed at +375 to win the National League Pennant, according to odds from BetOnline. This just goes to show you how quickly things can change, even in a league that plays 162 games in a season. It wasn’t all that long ago that Don Mattingly was squarely on the hot seat, and now the Dodgers are listed as oddsmakers second favorites to win the National League.
Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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