This Week in MLB Betting By the Numbers
by Aaron Smith - 7/29/2013
The race for the American League East still looks like it will be the best in all of baseball. Will it be the red-hot Tampa Bay Rays? Can Boston hang on? Will Baltimore or New York be able to get back in the picture? The Yankees got some Sunday heroics from Derek Jeter in his first game back from the disabled list, but they are 7.5 games back and in desperate need of a great month of August.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 61-42 through their first 103 games, which gives them the second best record in the National League. There are now two big questions about the Pirates as we head into the stretch run of the season. First, can the Pirates hold on and at least finish with a winning record? Let’s be honest, they would really have to fall apart to not finish with a winning record! You can’t blame people for talking about it, though. After all, the Pirates have had a record-setting 20 consecutive losing seasons. More importantly for Pirates fans, can the Pirates stay in position to make the postseason this year?
Baseball is a numbers-driven game, and keeping track of the data can put you one step ahead of most bettors. Here is a look at some important numbers to keep an eye on when betting on baseball in the week ahead.
0- The Seattle Mariners are 8-0 in their last eight games during Game 1 of a series. Seattle has been on a really nice run of late. The Mariners are actually ahead of the Angels in the American League West standings. Seattle will test this eight-game unbeaten streak to start a series on Tuesday at Fenway Park against the Red Sox. Boston is 26-10 in their last 36 home games against Seattle.
7- The Cleveland Indians are 7-0 in their last seven home games. Cleveland continues to put pressure on the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central. The Indians host the White Sox this week, and Cleveland has won four straight against them.
8- The Phillies have lost eight straight games. Jonathan Papelbon was very outspoken in his frustration about the current course of the team. Philadelphia flirted with contention in the NL East a couple weeks ago, but there is now no doubt that this team will be a major seller at the trade deadline.
11- The “under” is 11-1 in the Miami Marlins last 12 games. That shouldn’t be terribly surprising since the Marlins went 37 straight innings without score at one point during this run. At the same time, wise moneyline bettors have done well backing the Marlins as big underdogs a lot during the month of July. Miami has a winning record in July, and this young pitching staff has really been giving Marlins fans a reason to get excited about the future.
14- Totals bettors might want to look at the “over” in the Angels vs. Rangers series this week in Arlington. The over is 14-3 in the last 17 games between these two played in Arlington. There will be some good pitching matchups in this series, but that will also mean some lower posted totals.
15- The Oakland Athletics are 15-3 in A.J. Griffin’s last 18 home starts. He’ll start at home for the Athletics on Monday night against the disappointing Toronto Blue Jays.
21- Tampa Bay has won 21 of their last 26 games overall. The Diamondbacks will be in Tampa Bay this week. The Rays have fared very well in Interleague games of late. Tampa Bay is 11-1 in their last 12 interleague games. They are also 6-0 in their last six interleague home games.
70- David Price has the chance to become the first pitcher to beat the Boston Red Sox twice at Fenway Park in the span of five days or less in 70 years. He’ll be on the mound for the Rays in a key makeup game Monday night. There’s a lot on the line in this game.
99- Miguel Cabrera leads baseball with 99 runs batted in so far in 2013. Despite missing four games recently due to an injury, Cabrera is on pace to finish with more impressive numbers than he did in last year’s Triple Crown season. His recent accomplishments are nothing short of amazing!
800- The Atlanta Braves are listed at -800 to win the NL East, according to current odds from Bovada. Washington’s woes have made things much easier on the Braves. Atlanta’s offense has been very inconsistent, but it likely isn’t going to hurt them during the regular season. Still, you have to wonder if that inconsistency will catch up to them in the postseason.
Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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