Futures Betting Toss Up: Comparing NFL and NCAA Football Wagers
by George Monroy - 8/20/2014
The NFL and college football seasons start within a week of each other, and after a slow summer for betting the sports action is about to pick up. On top of the weekly in-game spreads, there is plethora of futures bets to take advantage of in both sports. The question is, however, which lines are the best ones to wager on, since most bettors cannot keep the majority of their bankroll tied up in futures bets spread across two sports.
If you had to choose between wagering on the favorite to win the Super Bowl or the favorite to win the national title, which would you pick? Let's take a closer look at a few NFL versus college football futures and decide on which are the best line to bet on. All odds come from BetOnline.
Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl at +600 versus Florida State to win the National title at +400
The question presented here is fairly simple-what is easier to do, repeat as champions in the NFL or in college football? At first glance it might seem that repeating in college football is easier, but over the last 10 years only Alabama and the New England Patriots have repeated as champions in their respective sports. And now that college football will be adopting a four-team playoff system, things will be even harder.
Both teams are the best in their sport, but all Florida State has to do is win its conference with one loss or better to be a shoe-in for the four-team playoff. Seattle, on the other hand, plays in the toughest division in the NFC and could lose two or three games and get stuck in a wild card spot.
The Pick : Neither is a bad bet, but Florida State has an easier road to the championship than Seattle.
Peyton Manning to win the MVP at +350 versus Jameis Winston to win the Heisman at +500
Winning a Heisman Trophy is difficult, as evidenced by the fact that there has not been a back-to-back winner in nearly 30 years. Winning an NFL MVP award is second nature for Peyton Manning. The Broncos' quarterback has won consecutive MVP awards twice since 2003. NFL media members love voting for Manning. However, to be quite honest, he earns those awards every single year. The quarterback has a multitude of story lines that will drive his MVP candidacy yet again this season-his quest for another Super Bowl win, a drive for revenge, and overcoming the still-lingering neck issues from a few season ago.
The Pick : The NFL MVP award is Manning's until someone takes it away.
"Over" 9.5 wins for Indianapolis at even money versus over nine wins for LSU at -110
Indianapolis has produced consecutive 11-5 seasons under Andrew Luck but continues to be an underrated and underestimated team. Luck can be a polarizing quarterback with extreme highs and lows, yet he still managed to lead a Colts teams to 22 wins over his first two years. Many of his contemporaries, Robert Griffin and Cam Newton in particular, struggled during that same span. Luck seems to be one of those quarterbacks that can get 10 wins out of any football roster.
LSU has 12 games on its schedule and a possible 13th if it were to make the SEC title game. The squad has a few tough matchups against Auburn, Alabama, Florida and Texas A&M, and 10 wins feels like a stretch for this year's team. LSU will most likely be facing losses against Auburn and Alabama and would need to go undefeated in its other 10 games to go over on this wager. Expect a 9-3 season and a push on this bet.
The Pick : Luck and the Indianapolis Colts will be a contender this season, and another 11-5 season is within reach.
Washington Redskins to make the playoffs at +260 versus Oregon to make the four-team playoff at +125
Washington and Griffin will have a world of pressure sitting on their shoulders entering the 2014 season. RGIII has gone from NFL poster boy to "product of a system" over the course of one year and will be looking to prove experts wrong. Washington's trouble, however, will be its brutal road schedule. The team could easily go 6-2 at home but may be looking at only three wins on the road. The good news for the team is that a 9-7 record could be enough to squeak into the playoffs in the always-underachieving NFC East.
Oregon has a relatively straightforward road to the college football four-team playoff. The team needs to win the Pac-12 with only a loss, maybe two, and it should be a shoe-in for the playoff. The Ducks are a high-profile school coming from a high-profile conference with a schedule difficult enough to make them a legitimate title contender. Oregon's biggest issue will be getting past UCLA in a potential Pac-12 title game.
The Pick : The NFC East has been a mess of a division for the last decade, and it would not be shocking to see an 8-8 record make the playoffs. Washington probably has the easier road to the postseason and is the better pick, especially with a +260 payout.
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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