MLB Betting Advice: Hot and Cold Teams for Runline Wagering
by Ricky Dimon - 6/13/2014
Raise your hand if you had the Tampa Bay Rays as the worst team in Major League Baseball more than two months into the season…. Nobody? Well, they are-with
a few games to spare in the standings and a whole lot of room between them and the club with the second worst runline record, San Diego. At the other end
of the spectrum, Seattle and the New York Mets are scorching hot.
All odds provided by Sportsbook .ag
Seattle Mariners - Seattle straight up paid Robinson Cano in the offseason to bring in another star alongside Felix Hernandez. The team's two biggest names have paced it to a respectable 34-31 overall record and an outstanding 39-26 mark against the runline (the latter ties the best such mark in baseball). Cano and company are 8-3 in their last 11 overall and 8-3 in their last 11 against the runline. Since May 12, a one-month span, the Mariners are 19-9 against the runline and have covered the spread in four one-run losses.
Washington Nationals - No race is tighter than the National League East between the top two teams and certainly the top three teams. Of the three, Washington is playing by far the best baseball-good enough to have caught and passed Atlanta and Miami in the standings. The Nationals are 8-1 in their last nine overall and 9-0 during the current stretch against the runline. They have three shutouts in their last nine and have surrendered just five runs in their last four. Washington is +450 to win the NL Pennant.
Los Angeles Angels - Through 65 games last year, the Angels were 27-38. It took them 79 games to get their 36th win. This time around, they are a solid 36-29 after 65 contests. L.A. has currently won six of eight overall (6-2 against the runline) and had won five in a row (5-0 runline) before losing to the A's 7-1 on Wednesday night. It is a +300 second choice to win the AL West.
San Diego Padres - The Padres have won two of their last nine games; they have not won any of those against the runline. After all, when you are dead last in Major League Baseball in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and runs scored, you struggle to win games and definitely struggle to win games by more than one tally. San Diego has crossed the plate a grand total of two times in its last three outings. It has been shut out three times in its last five and has scored no more than one run in five of its last nine.
Detroit Tigers - It's a good thing Detroit plays its ball in the American League Central, where no other team is better than mediocre. Of course, the Tigers are hardly better than that description. They are five games over .500 overall and seven games under .500 against the runline. The crew being run by first-year manger Brad Ausmus has dropped three in a row (0-3 runline) and eight of its last 10 (2-8 runline). Detroit has allowed at least five runs in four straight games and Justin Verlander has one quality start in his last six takings of the mound. The Tigers are +700 to win the World Series.
Colorado Rockies - What's cooler than being cool? ICE COLD! Well, that and the Rockies. They are 2-11 in their last 13 games and 3-10 against the runline. Hey, at least they covered in one of the losses! As usual, Colorado owns the worst ERA in the league. That can be chalked up to altitude, but the staff has been dreadful of late even away from home. The current stretch began with 24 runs allowed in four road losses (one at Philadelphia, three at Cleveland). It later featured 35 runs given up in a three-game span at home (one against the Dodgers, two against the Diamondbacks). The Rockies (Chacin) are +105 home underdogs against the Braves (Santana) on Thursday.
New York Mets - The Mets are the masters of the one-run loss, which explains why they can be so poor overall (relatively speaking, of course, as they are really not that bad by their recent standards) but so good when it comes to the runline (39-26, best in the majors). New York is 8-17 in one-run games. No other team in the bigs has more than 14 such setbacks, and that team (Cincinnati) at least has 11 one-run wins as accompaniments. The team went on a streak of nine straight victories against the runline (6-3 overall) from May 27 to June 4. The runline has the Mets (Niese) at +1.5 against visiting Milwaukee (Lohse) on Thursday.
Tampa Bay Rays - We gave the Rays a break in the last installment of this piece and discussed Texas here, but there is no denying that they have been the worst team in the runline business from just about start to finish this season. Tampa Bay is also the worst team in the business, period, thanks to a shocking current stretch in which it is 2-14 in its last 16 contests (3-13 against the runline). Joe Maddon's club ended a 31-inning scoreless streak by notching four runs in the fourth inning on Wednesday against St. Louis. Lo and behold, the Rays actually won the game. Tampa is +3500 to win the AL East; the Blue Jays are -160 favorites.
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