MLB Betting Advice: Hot and Cold Teams for Runline Wagering
by Ricky Dimon - 8/5/2014
The Red Sox still stink. The Mets continue to put money into the pockets of their backers. Some things did not change after the trade deadline, despite a
flurry of activity (plenty of it involving the Red Sox, in fact). Meanwhile, Baltimore is hot on New York's trail for the best runline record in baseball
and - more importantly for the team - the O's have a four-game lead in the AL East.
All odds provided by Sportsbook.
Baltimore Orioles - At 64-47 against the runline, Baltimore has the second best such record in all of baseball behind the Mets. Buck Showalter's club has paid off especially well of late, with an 11-3 runline mark in its last 14 games (10-4 overall). Wei-Yin Chen has allowed only one run in his last two starts, spanning 15.1 innings. Chris Tillman has made nine quality starts in his last 11 outings and he has lowered his ERA from 5.20 as recently as June 10 to a current mark of 3.78. The Orioles are -200 favorites to win the AL East and +600 to win the AL Pennant.
Houston Astros - The Astros have not been terrible this season, which is a compliment by their standards. In fact, they were actually quite good last week. Houston dropped five in a row (0-5 runline) from July 23 through 27, but it has covered the spread in its last five games and it is 6-1 against the runline in its last seven (5-2 overall). Brett Oberholtzer has turned in quality starts in each of his last four outings and in seven of his last eight. The Astros are 7-1 against the runline the last eight times Oberholtzer has taken the mound.
Detroit Tigers - Detroit landed David Price at the trade deadline, so its rotation now reads something along the lines of ace, ace, ace, ace, Justin Verlander, ace, ace, ace, ace, etc. The Tigers are also first in Major League Baseball in batting average and second in slugging percentage. They are struggling to pull away from Kansas City of all teams in the AL Central, but the Tigers are 8-4 in their last 12 against the runline (6-6 overall). Detroit (Price) is a -140 road favorite at the Yankees (Kuroda) on Tuesday.
Philadelphia Phillies - Neither the Braves nor the Nationals have done much to separate themselves from the rest of the NL East, but the other three teams-especially the Phillies-are cooperating. Since July 12, Philadelphia is a dreadful 5-14 against the runline (7-12 overall). It took the first two games of a four-game series at Washington last week only to lose 11-0 on Saturday and 4-0 on Sunday. The Phillies are a solid 32-25 against the runline on the road, but their runline mark as hosts stands at 19-36. That does bode well for the near future, as Ryne Sandberg's squad plays its next seven contests at home starting on Tuesday.
Los Angeles Angels - The Angels dominated a showdown between L.A. rivals 5-0 on Monday night, but they are still just 5-10 in their last 15 against the runline. Since July 18, the Angels have won five games by one run while failing to cover the spread. L.A. has crossed the plate 12 times in its last two outings, which really is not anything new for a team that is second in the majors in runs scored and third in batting average. However, in 10 of 17 games since the all-star break, the Angels have scored no more than three runs. They are +900 to win the World Series.
Colorado Rockies - Colorado is in the middle of the pack with a 56-55 runline record. It used to be so much better, however, for Walt Weiss' ballclub. The Rockies are 0-4 in their last four against the runline (0-4 overall) and 6-12 in their last 18 against the runline (4-14 overall) dating back to July 12. Troy Tulowitzki is hitting .340 for the year, but he batted just .250 in July and has not played since July 19 because of a left hip flexor strain. Colorado is +50000 to win the NL West; the Dodgers are -500 favorites.
New York Mets - The Mets were the most lucrative team in the baseball betting world at the all-star break and they still hold that distinction almost a week into August. They are 66-46 against the runline, two wins clear of Baltimore. New York has not been particularly hot of late, but it has at least been decent with an 8-5 runline mark in its last 13 outings. The team covered the spread in a 4-3 loss to San Francisco on Monday, leaving it a respectable 29-26 against the runline at home this season. New York's runline record is 37-20 on the road, which is where its next seven games will take place.
Boston Red Sox - It's not often that the defending World Series champion is a seller at the following season's trade deadline, but that was exactly the case this time around. Boston, the third worst team in the American League at 49-62, shipped starter Jon Lester to MLB-leading Oakland (67-43) in exchange for Yoenis Cespedes last Thursday. The Red Sox lost eight of nine games prior to the trade deadline and they dropped two of three at home to the Yankees immediately thereafter. Against the runline, Boston is 0-6 in its last six, 1-11 in its last 12, and 6-23 in its last 29. The team, which at least has a decent runline record of 25-28 away from home, is embarking on an eight-game road trip beginning Tuesday.
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