MLB Betting Advice: Hot and Cold Teams for Runline Wagering
by Ricky Dimon - 4/17/2014
Two weeks into the Major League Baseball season, it's time to take a look at the most profitable teams up to this point-and also the most costly. We will
provide this report every two weeks of the MLB regular season in order to help bettors identify the best and worst teams on the runline. Click here for more info on runline betting.
All odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
New York Mets - The Mets are just 8-7 overall (actually a better-than-mediocre record by their standards), but they are 11-4 in the runline department. This is despite getting swept in their season-opening series against the Nationals, covering the runline in none of those contests. New York is 11-1 in its last 12 against the runline. Interestingly, their only blemish in this stretch was an absolute blowout; C.J. Wilson and the Angels crushed Bartolo Colon and the Mets 14-2 last Sunday. Other than that, New York has not lost a game by more than one run since April 3.
Atlanta Braves - Atlanta has been one of the best runline teams in the business despite going 0-3 in that department against the Mets last week. Versus everyone else, the Braves are 10-2 against the runline. They have won five in a row overall and are 4-0 RL in their last four. Atlanta has given up the fewest runs in the bigs (39) and has the second-best team ERA (2.52) behind Milwaukee. Fredi Gonzalez's staff features two pitchers who have made at least two starts and have ERAs below 1.00 and two other pitchers who have made at least three starts and have ERAs under 2.00. The Braves are +120 to win the NL East.
Milwaukee Brewers - Yes, right now you can find the best value in the National League and the National League alone. The Mets, Braves, Brewers, and also the Los Angeles Dodgers are getting the job done against the runline better than anyone else. Milwaukee (11-4 overall, 10-5 RL) has won 10 of its last 12 games since dropping two of three in their opening series at home vs. Atlanta, and they are 9-3 against the runline in those 12 games. The Brew Crew's league-best ERA can be attributed in part to Yovani Gallardo, who is 2-0 in three starts with a 0.96 mark. Milwaukee also boasts the majors' best run differential (+23).
Tampa Bay Rays
- The 7-8 Rays are currently in the middle of the pack in an American League riddled with parity (no team is better than 10-5 and none is worse than 5-10.
In the AL East, 9-6 is the best record and 6-9 is the worst). Against the runline, however, they are a dismal 3-12. Tampa Bay has lost three in a row
overall, and it owns a shocking 0-10 runline record in its last 10. Each of Tampa's four most recent victories have come by a single run. The Rays have not
won by more than that margin since an 8-1 home rout of Texas on April 4. Tampa Bay (Price) is a -172 home favorite over the Yankees (Sabathia) on Thursday.
Arizona Diamondbacks - At this rate, Arizona is not going to have any further interest in starting its seasons in Australia. The Diamondbacks lost two in a row to L.A. as they kicked off their 2014 campaign Down Under, and they have never recovered. They started 1-8 and have currently lost six in a row overall to fall to a majors-worst 4-14 record. The D-Backs are also 4-14 against the runline. Interestingly, Arizona has played just three one-run games this season--in part because it is rarely competitive. The team has seen just one contest decided by a single run since April 1.
Texas Rangers - Texas is a decent 8-7 overall, but it is just 4-11 against the runline. The Rangers have a dismal 1-6 runline record in their last seven games despite winning four of them. Three of those four victories have come by one run, giving Ron Washington's club five one-run triumphs already in 2014. Texas is the only MLB team with a winning record that has a negative run differential (-9).
Los Angeles Dodgers - Since we're at the beginning of the season, the hottest teams are also the best overall at this point, but we'll save the Dodgers for this exclusive category as opposed to the "hot" column simply because they've lost two in a row. Of course, they still covered the runline in each of those two setbacks--one-run decisions on Tuesday and Wednesday at NL West rival San Francisco. L.A. is 9-6 overall while boasting an 11-4 runline record. The Dodgers are +500 favorites to win the World Series.
Detroit Tigers - In terms of percentages, American League favorite (+250) Detroit is currently the worst runline team in all of Major League Baseball at 2-9. However, the sample size is so small (the Tigers have played only 11 games, while Arizona--for comparison's sake--has played 18 games) that we'll leave Brad Ausmas' squad out of the "cold" column. The Tigers are a decent 6-5 and actually lead the AL Central by percentage points, but four of their victories have come by just a single run-including two in extra innings.
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