NCAA Football Betting: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks
by Aaron Smith - 9/16/2014
It's already Week 4 of the college football season. The Fading the Top 25 picks were profitable last week. Boston College +17.5 turned out to be a great pick as the Eagles upset the USC Trojans outright in a stunner. Southern Miss catching 48 points was also a winner. The Buffalo Bulls were unable to stop the Baylor Bears offense all night, and the Bulls was the lone loser from last week's selections.
Last week's college football schedule was the worst of the year from a fan standpoint. This week's isn't terrific, but there are certainly some better matchups than there were last weekend. Clemson heads to Florida State in a rematch of the Seminoles massive win on the road last year. Florida and Alabama should be a nice barometer game for both teams. Auburn and Oklahoma both face tough road tests this week as well.
Doc's Sports always wants to look for ways to help bettors make money. This year I'm going to be tracking against the spread records of the Associated Press Top 25. How do Top 25 teams do ATS? Are there chances to go against Top 25 teams that are overrated? In this weekly article, I'll make a few picks each week where I fade a team in the Top 25, and I'll keep track of my results so readers can follow along. This is an experiment we will be testing out in 2014, and all plays will be flat bets to win $100 on each game. I may sometimes back teams that are in the Top 25 if they are against another ranked team that I want to fade. At the end of each article, I'll make note of how the Top 25 overall did against the number, and that is a cumulative number.
Play No. 1- West Virginia +7.5 (#390) vs. Oklahoma : Oklahoma has looked great this year, but I can't help but remember the fact that the Sooners seem to have a couple of poor showings every year. They generally come on the road, and West Virginia is an extremely difficult place to play. This is a night game, and you better believe the crowd will be rocking. Dana Holgorsen's Mountaineers offense has been much better than anyone expected this year. Clint Trickett has over 1,200 passing yards in just three games. It appears that Trickett is completely healthy this year, and that has made him a totally different player. Rushel Shell is an ultra-talented running back who fits well in the system, too. This is a very dangerous game for Oklahoma. The Sooners might win, but I expect it to be close. By the way, if you live anywhere near Morgantown, make sure you protect your personal goods Saturday night or they might end up on fire.
Play No. 2- Troy +40 (#323) vs. Georgia: This is definitely a "hold your nose" type of play. Troy isn't any good at all, and I have little doubt that Georgia could beat them by more than 40 points if they stay motivated all game long. I expect Georgia to win this game big, but 40 points is a huge number. It's very likely that we see Georgia rest starters early in this game since they have quite a few players dinged up. The Bulldogs get right back into SEC play next weekend against Tennessee, and I think they know they won't prove any point by blowing the doors off the lowly Troy Trojans. This is purely a play on the number of points we can catch here. I'll take the underdog.
Play No. 3- Florida State -20 (#366) vs. Clemson: Florida State went to Clemson and won 51-14 last year. Some believe Clemson has the edge here because of the motivational factors involved in the game, but I don't see it that way. Florida State was fortunate to escape with a 37-31 win over Oklahoma State in Week 1. The Seminoles played The Citadel after that, but they haven't faced another true test. For several weeks now, Florida State has heard people questioning them. I expect that to fuel their fire. While Clemson will want to exact revenge from last season, the Tigers are several notches worse as a team compared to last year. Florida State is essentially the same team they were a year ago. The oddsmakers have set this number a little bit shorter than it should be because of the revenge angle. Look for Florida State to roll for a second straight season.
Fade the Top 25 Selections Year to Date: 3 Wins 7 Losses (-$470)
Overall Top 25 ATS Record Last Week- 8 Wins 11 Losses
Overall Top 25 ATS Record This Season - 33 Wins (49.3%) 34 Losses (50.7%)
Doc's Sports is offering a great deal for new clients - you can get $60 worth of free college football picks with no obligation. No credit card is needed, and you will never have to deal with a salesman. See what all the hype is about with $60 worth of free college football picks by clicking here . Also, get three handicappers for the price of one when you sign up for a full-season football package! Click Here for details.
Read more articles by Aaron Smith
Most Recent College Football Handicapping
- College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Sept. 12-13
- 49th-Year Anniversary - Football Picks Special
- Potential College Football Start Options During Covid-19 Pandemic
- 2020 Heisman Trophy Predictions
- National Championship Game Picks for Clemson vs. LSU
- Strong Underdogs for Bowl Game Betting: Possible Moneyline Paydays
- Expert College Bowl Game Handicapping: Coaching Uncertainty
- NCAA Bowl Game Wagering: Toughest Games to Handicap
- College Bowl Game Betting Advice: Biggest Mismatches
- NCAA Football Betting Odds: Championship Week Line Movements & Last-Minute News