NCAA Football Odds Week 3: Taking a Look at the Biggest Favorites on the Board
by George Monroy - 9/9/2014
The college football season isn't even three weeks old yet, and already we have an interesting trend forming-large favorites are covering. NCAA football is known for its massive spreads, as evidenced by its two 50-plus-point lines during the first two weeks of action Betting on those lines can be a scary proposition for gamblers, because what incentive does a team have to win by 50 points, instead of 45, when the game goes deep into the fourth quarter?
Through the first two weeks of the season there have already been nine 30-point-or-more lines on the board, and surprisingly the favorite has produced a 6-3 ATS record over those games. Last week 30-point-or-more favorites went 3-1 ATS, with two of the teams easily covering by 20-plus points. Heading into Week 3 there are six large favorite on the board and plenty of opportunity for bettors to jump on the trend if it continues. Let's take a closer look at the biggest favorites on the board for Week 3 of college football action. All lines come from BookMaker.
Michigan -30.5 against Miami Ohio
Michigan is currently 1-1 against the spread but produced a 38-point win against a 28-point line over Appalachian State during the opening week of the season. The Wolverines were installed as 30-point-or-more favorite twice last season and managed to go 1-1 ATS in those games. The Big Ten is a packed conference, but it's still wide-open for the taking after Ohio State's upset loss last weekend. Michigan will have the incentive to cover this spread.
Ohio State -32 against Kent State
Ohio State is coming off a huge loss during Week 2, which dropped the team 14 spots in the AP rankings. The Buckeyes are 1-1 against the spread in 2014 and struggled during their only ATS win against Navy during Week 1. In 2013, a much better Ohio State team went 2-3 ATS against its 30-point-or-more lines and may struggle to produce enough offense to blow Kent State out
Oregon -43.5 against Wyoming
Oregon is a monster. Only two weeks into the season the squad looks like the best team in the nation and a shoe-in for the four-team playoff at the end of the year. The Ducks produced a 49-point win during the opening week of the season and put together a fanatic performance against No. 7 Michigan State on Saturday. The Pac-12 powerhouse jumped Alabama in the rankings and has every reason to cover a 43.5-point spread during Week 3-because they only way they are going to get to No.1 is by pilling up blowouts and huge wins.
Alabama -47.5 against Southern Miss
Alabama struggled during its opening game and could not cover a 22-point spread against West Virginia. The No. 3 team in the nation bounced back last week, however, and needed only part of the fourth quarter (the game ended early because of thunder storms) to cover its 41-point spread. Alabama's offense isn't nearly as potent as it has been in years past, but the team is still a powerhouse on defense and should be able to keep Southern Miss from scoring a single point. The question is if the Crimson Tide can even score seven touchdowns. This might be a spot to take the underdog.
LSU -31 against Louisiana-Monroe
LSU is still undefeated against the spread and managed to produce a 56-point victory against a 32-point spread last weekend. The squad isn't receiving much talk in the national title conversation and may be looking to make a statement early in the season. The Tigers are averaging 42 points and have been far more potent on offense than most people expected. LSU has been downright stingy against the pass, allowing only 109 yards in the air over its first two games. This feels like another 40-0 type of game.
Texas A&M -31 against Rice
Texas A&M changed the expectations for its 2014 season with an upset win over then-No.9 South Carolina during the opening game of the year. The Aggies are coming off a huge 70-point victory against a 46.5-point spread and may once again be an offensive powerhouse in the SEC. Texas A&M is averaging 62.5 points per game and is ranked second in the nation in passing yards per game. With the way the squad has been playing, a 31-point spread might be a low line.
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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