Sports Betting Insights: Wagering on MLB Over/Under Betting Odds
by Dave Schwab - 5/21/2014
The new MLB season is already a quarter of the way through its 162-game schedule, making it a good time to take a closer look at the betting trends on the total line so far. As of this past Tuesday night's games, the slight advantage has been with the play on the "over" with the total going over the closing line in 51.7 percent of the games. This percentage jumps to 57.6 in the 38 games that have ended in extra innings.
When you break down the scoring for both the National League and the American League, you find that the average number of runs scored per game in the NL has been 4.0, and in the AL this average increases to 4.36 runs per game. For both leagues combined, the average number of total runs scored in a game would be 8.35. You can use that number as a general guide when handicapping a particular matchup in terms of a play on the total line, but it really comes down to individual team results.
If you are looking for a few teams on the high side of these averages, then focus your attention on the Colorado Rockies in the NL and the Oakland Athletics in the AL. The Rockies have already pounded out 254 total runs for an average of 5.52 runs per game. It's no wonder that 26 of their 46 games played have gone over the total, which is 56.2 percent of the time. Oakland has averaged 5.28 runs per game, and the total has gone over in 53.3 percent of its games.
The best play on the total line, in terms of games going over, have been the Chicago White Sox in the AL and the Miami Marlins in the NL. The total has gone over in 29 of the White Sox first 47 games (61.7 percent) and in 28 of the Marlins first 46 games (60.1 percent). Chicago is belting out an average of 4.96 runs per game, while Miami is ranked sixth in the majors with 4.54 runs a game. What makes the White Sox extremely attractive as a play on the over is a team ERA of 4.81 that is ranked dead last in MLB.
Turning to some of the lowest-scoring teams in the league, you have San Diego bringing up the rear in the NL with an average of 3.09 runs. The lowest-scoring team in the AL has been the Houston Astros with just 3.67 runs a game. It just so happens that the top play on the under this season has been the Padres, with 28 of their 46 games staying under the closing total line, which is 61 percent of the time. That has not been the case with Houston, with just 22 of their 46 games (47.8 percent) staying under.
The Atlanta Braves have been another solid play with 26 of their 44 games staying under, which is 59 percent of the time. They are ranked second to last in scoring with 3.39 runs per game, and they have the best team ERA in the majors at 2.76. These are the kind of winning combinations you need to look for as your main handicapping tool for successfully playing the total line.
Triple Crown Early Betting Props
The excitement of possibly crowning the first Triple Crown Champion in over 35 years in thoroughbred horse racing continues to grow with California Chrome listed as the early favorite to win next month's Belmont Stakes after successfully winning the first two jewels of the crown, the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.
Bovada's current prop bet odds
suggest that this horse could be the real deal after 12 previous horses failed to accomplish this feat since Affirmed won all three races in 1978. The
moneyline odds on "yes he will win" and "no he will not win" are both set at -120, making it really easy to wager on this amazing three-year old chestnut
colt's chances to lay claim to one of the most sought-after titles in all of sports.
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Read more articles by Dave Schwab
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