2015 Kentucky Derby Handicapping: Champion Pedigrees

by Trevor Whenham - 4/28/2015

One of my favorite things to do during the lead up to the Kentucky Derby is to study the pedigrees of the runners. For one thing, the quality of horses that are good enough to race at this level is usually very impressive. Each year there are different trends and tendencies that emerge that will be good subplots for the race. More significantly for bettors, though, studying the pedigrees can give us a sense of which horses are going to be capable of handling the grueling Derby distance and which ones are likely to struggle. Sometimes the breeding of a horse makes it more suited for the Derby than they might seem, and that can lead to some value. As we get ready for this year's Kentucky Derby, here are four pedigree storylines that are interesting - and potentially profitable.

Sons of Triple Crown race winners

The easiest way to know that a horse has a decent chance of handling the Derby distance of a mile and a quarter is if he is the son of a horse that won a Triple Crown race himself. Most years there aren't many that fit into that simple category. That's certainly not the case this year - six of the 20 likely entrants are descended directly from Triple Crown royalty.

International Star: The Louisiana Derby winner is the son of Fusaichi Pegasus, the ridiculously-talented winner of the Derby in 2000. Fusaichi Pegasus has not been a great sire - at least not compared to the massive expectations he faced - but he is the grandsire of 2011 Belmont winner Ruler on Ice.

Dortmund: Dortmund's father is responsible for the single most depressing day as a horse racing fan. Big Brown was undefeated and had won the first two legs of the Triple Crown pretty easily in 2008. He seemed all but sure to be a Triple Crown winner. I was all in - at the betting window and emotionally. He didn't even show up for the Belmont. Ugly.

Materiality: Afleet Alex is another horse that should have been a Triple Crown winner. He got his lousy day out of the way early, though. He was a disappointing third in the 2005 Derby, and jockey Jeremy Rose was as much to blame as anything. He then won the Preakness and Belmont with ease.

Itsaknockout: Lemon Drop Kid crushed a lot of souls in 1999. The unlikely frontrunner Charismatic had won the first two legs of the Triple Crown and had daylight between him and the field entering the stretch at the Belmont. It seemed like it was a day for destiny. But then Lemon Drop Kid chased him down in the stretch.

Ocho Ocho Ocho: After being named two-year-old champion in 2006, Street Sense became the first Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion to win the Kentucky Derby. He couldn't repeat the effort in the Preakness, though, being beaten by a nose.

Keen Ice: When Street Sense lost the 2007 Preakness, it was because he couldn't get past Curlin. This all-time legend then went on to be named Horse of the Year two years in a row. In his young stud career Curlin has already sired 2013 Belmont winner Palace Malice.

Other stars

Beyond the Triple Crown race winners, there are some good storylines among the sires represented here:

Carpe Diem: His sire, Giant's Causeway, was named European Horse of the Year in 2000. The last race of his career was his first on dirt. He finished second by a neck to Tiznow in the 2000 Breeders' Cup Classic, beating two other sires represented in this race this year - Lemon Drop Kid and Fusaichi Pegasus.

American Pharoah: His sire, Pioneerof the Nile, was second to Mine That Bird in the crazy 2009 Kentucky Derby. He just narrowly missed carrying on the family legacy - sire Empire Maker won the Belmont in 2003 and is the son of 1990 Derby winner Unbridled.

Keen Ice: We've already talked about his sire, Curlin, who won the Breeders' Cup Classic in 2007. His damsire, Awesome Again, also won the richest race in North America, taking the Classic in 1998. In that race he beat champions Silver Charm and Skip Away in a ridiculously strong field. Two Classic winners in the first two lines of your pedigree - not too bad.

Malibu Moon

Malibu Moon had his racing career ended soon after it started due to injury. He was a son of the great A.P. Indy, though, so breeding expectations were high. He hasn't disappointed. In 2013 his son Orb was the winner of the Kentucky Derby. This year he has produced Derby runners in bulk - Danzig Moon, Stanford and Mr. Z are all his sons. They are all long shots, but he still has three times the chances of any other horse in the field.

What stands out with all three of those horses is the quality of their damsires. Danzig Moon is out of a Danzig mare. Danzig is a son of Northern Dancer, a legendary sire in his own right. Mr. Z is out of a Storm Cat mare. Storm Cat is a Northern Dancer grandson and one of the great sires of all time. Stanford is out of a Distorted Humor mare. That horse sired 2003 Derby and Preakness winner Funny Cide and 2010 Belmont winner Drosselmeyer and is the grandsire of 2012 Derby and Preakness winner I'll Have Another. Those three damsires are a sign of the tremendous quality of horses that Malibu Moon is being bred to these days. These three horses will not be his last offspring in this race.

Northern Afleet

We should mention Northern Afleet, who, despite his name, is not a close descendant of Northern Dancer. He is represented in two generations in this race. He is the sire of War Story. He is also the grandsire of Materiality, who is a son of Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex, by far the most successful offspring Northern Afleet has had.

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