Here's the thing - sometimes college football teams that are terrible at covering spreads are more attractive than teams that are pretty good at covering them. A bad team is more likely to be consistently bad, and bettors can take advantage just by consistently betting against them. It takes a long time for a bad team to quit being bad, too, so it only makes sense that we should look at the college football teams that were the worst at covering spreads last year, because there is a good chance that several of them will struggle to cover spreads this year, too.
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Here's a look at the nine worst teams against the spread last year (Top 5 plus ties) to see what we might expect this year:
Central Florida (2-10 ATS): It will take time for this team to truly return back to the heights they were once at, but they should be much better this year than they were last. George O'Leary was just a disaster, and he really made a mess of last season by resigning after eight losses. Scott Frost was a great hire, and he will completely overhaul the attitude. He has some decent pieces to work with as well. This team will not be on this list next year.
Hawaii (3-10 ATS): They play in Australia to open the season, and then they play at Michigan. It's going to be a very rough start to the season. They will have a new starting QB, and they have a general shortage of talent. Coach Nick Rolovich is making his head coaching debut. This team is not going to be good and is all but a lock to be back on this list again next year.
Kansas (3-9 ATS): David Beaty has an unblemished record as head coach - he has managed to lose every single game he has coached at Kansas. Entering his second year, the team is going to be lousy again - just not quite as lousy. They could really do something crazy like win two games. It's tough to lose 10 games and cover a lot of spreads. It's going to be yet another long football season in Lawrence.
Oregon State (3-9 ATS): There are as many as eight or nine teams that you could make a case for as Pac-12 Champions. It's a very wide-open conference. Oregon State is absolutely not one of those teams, though. In fact, it would be a big shock if they weren't the worst team in the conference - convincingly. Gary Andersen should be able to get things on track here at some point, but right now this is just a bad, untalented team.
Georgia Tech (3-9 ATS): What a fall from grace. In 2014 the Yellow Jackets played in the Orange Bowl. Last year they won three games. The offensive line was a mess last year, and that's a big problem for a triple-option team. It's no guarantee that it will be perfect this year, but it should be better than it was. I wouldn't buy Orange Bowl tickets just yet if I was a fan of the team, but they should be improved.
Missouri (3-9 ATS): The Tigers had been punching over their weight the last couple of years, but the wheels fell off last year. They were a very young team, and they struggled to 5-7. Now they have a new head coach after 15 years, and he is a very uninspiring one at that. They struggled at QB and offensively, and it's hard to know if another year of experience will turn the corner. I am certainly not optimistic about this team, though the defense should be good enough to make them better than this against the spread this year.
Kentucky (3-9 ATS): For the third time in three years there has been a change in offensive coordinator. For better or for worse, the new coaches will have a very experienced offense to work with - every offensive player who registered a stat aside from the backup QB last year, and four of five linemen, are back again. The defense isn't nearly as experienced, but it should be okay. This team has a chance - especially with a relatively manageable schedule for the SEC - to make a bowl game. That would likely make them at least a little better ATS,
Texas State (3-9 ATS): Dennis Franchione coached this team for the last five years, and he did a pretty lousy job overall. He certainly didn't build any momentum or make any obvious progress. Of course, when has Franchione really done any better? I don't love the hire of Everett Withers, but change was certainly needed. Still, it's tough to get excited in the short term about the Bobcats.
Kent State (3-9 ATS): Paul Haynes, a former DB for the team, is a lousy 9-26 in his first three years with the Golden Flashes. He was brought back for a fourth year. That tells you about all you need to know about this program and where they are at. They return a lot of starters. However, unlike a lot of teams, that isn't much of a good thing here. They are really not good, and could easily wind up here again this year.
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