I feel as if I belong in the American League East right now. I am sitting at 6-6 on my prop selections this season and am feeling a bit down about my mediocre .500 mark. Despite all that, I would consider myself an optimist. Heading into the weekend with a 2-1 finish and making a little bit of money could be the start of an epic run. At least, that's what I hope is in the forecast.
Don't get me wrong, I love absolutely every play I decide to share with guys, but the truth is they call it gambling for a reason. There always seems to be one or two fluke or boneheaded plays that can take my selection from a sure-fire winner to a loser in a matter of seconds.
For example, the Reds-Cubs game on Thursday saw me on "Over" 3 Hits/Runs/Errors in the first inning. After the quickest guy in the league (Billy Hamilton) draws a walk, he then proceeds to get picked off by the pitcher. Joey Votto singled immediately after on a hit where Hamilton could have easily gone first-to-third. The Reds should have had runners on first and third with one out -- instead it was a runner on first with two outs. We will never know what the outcome would have been, but as I said, one stupid play altered everything.
Tuesday's MLB slate features some pretty good matchups, including NL Central rivals Chicago taking on St. Louis and my beloved Blue Jays heading back to the city where they claimed their first AL East title in 23 years.
For those just tuning in, I have two key first inning props I focus on. The first one is "Will there be a run scored in the first inning?" The second is
"Over" 3 Hits/Runs/Errors. I feel as this is the best way to avoid any bullpen nonsense (see Boston/Toronto yesterday) and make a quick buck after watching
six outs, not three hours of baseball. My final prop selection is a team-total, which can be profitable by riding the hot-hitting teams or those who
couldn't hit the back side of a barn.
Let's take a look at three of my favorite prop options that are on the board tonight. As always, odds and lines are courtesy of bovada.lv
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
Total Hits/Runs/Errors in First Inning
"Over" 3 +135, "Under" 3 -165
The first thing you must understand is that this prop takes into account both the top and bottom of the first innings. Three is a winner, not a push.
I've seen these two pitchers pitch, and I believe we could be in for some fireworks at Turner Field.
University of Georgia alumni Alex Wood is facing his former team for the first time. And while some may think he will put on a show in front of friends and family, I believe his former teammates will rattle him early thanks in large part to familiarity. He is only in the rotation due to injuries by Hyun-Jun Ryu and Brett Anderson. While his record indicates he is 1-1 on the season, he sports a 4.50 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP, with only six punch-outs and five walks. Not exactly a solid 12 innings pitched.
On the other hand, Julio Teheran was once thought of as a potential ace of the staff. Unfortunately for the righty, he has had his struggles dating back to last season. Over his last two starts this season, he's allowed 11 runs and 12 hits over 11 innings. Not exactly something that will strike fear into the free-swinging Dodgers. If track record is anything to go off of, Teheran could find himself hitting the showers early as he is 0-4 with a 6.08 ERA in four career starts against LA.
Take the over in this one folks.
Pick: "Over" 3 +135
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
Team Total: Los Angeles
"Over" 4 -120, "Under" 4 -110
Lets piggy-back a bit off of my first prop selection. We know Julio Teheran has very poor numbers against the Dodgers in his career, not to mention overall this season.
I've noticed that the Dodgers have scored two or fewer runs only twice in 13 games. They've scored exactly three runs in five games, which leaves us with six games scoring four or more runs. The offense seems to be doing their part by coming up with clutch hits and driving in the required runs to help out the starting pitching.
The Dodgers are 4-1 in their past five games and had an off day yesterday to travel and get their body clocks adjusted to Eastern time. These games, against bottom-feeder teams, are the games the Dodgers must win in order to be taken seriously and contend come September/October.
Several Dodgers have good numbers against Teheran, with Yasel Puig going 4-for-6 with a homer, Yasmani Grandal 3-for-7 with two doubles and Adrian Gonzalez is 4-for-12 with a dinger.
Pick: Team Total "Over" 4 -120
Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Indians
Will There Be A Run Scored In The First Inning
"Yes" +120 "No" -150
The Cleveland Indians have already faced six south paw pitchers in their first 10 games. Wade Miley will be the seventh.
The Indians are hoping they never have to see a leftie again considering they are 2-4 in those games and are hitting a putrid .200. That number would be even worse if not for an outburst against John Danks, who the Indians pounded for seven runs in five innings on April 8.
The trend right now for Cleveland is on the downward slope as they ended their series against the Mets by striking out 15 times, with only two hits. If Wade Miley can get through his half of the inning, this is a sure-fire winner.
I believe in Carolos Carrasco and what he's been doing for the last couple of seasons on the bump. His last outing saw him limit Tampa Bay to only one run and four hits in eight solid innings of work.
My opinion on Seattle is that they are not as good as everyone expects them to be. I can't see them coming into Cleveland and jumping on the ace of the staff.
Pick: "No" -150
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