How to Win Betting on Football by Expert NCAA and NFL Handicapper
by Jason Sharpe - 10/6/2016
This is my eighth season betting football professionally, and I hear the same thing every football season on how the betting public is a lot smarter than it was in the past and all the information out there nowadays means a much sharper, more accurate point spread with a lot less mistakes for the smart, sophisticated sports bettor to take advantage of.
Despite this fact I'm off to my best start ever to a football season in 2016 with a combined 37-16 record overall in college football and the NFL. The biggest reason for my excellent start this year is due to me focusing a lot more of my time and attention on the FBS teams from the three smallest conferences, the Mid-American, Sun Belt and Conference USA. I've had at least a 60 percent win rate or higher this year in EACH one of the first five weeks of the football season so far as I've made my $100 a unit followers already $5,500 in profits this season. I'm going to share with you here the biggest reason I feel I've been able to have my best season yet in CFB (27-11 record overall). Check out some of my football packages today.
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The biggest mistake that most handicappers make when it comes to handicapping CFB is saying "I don't know anything about the teams from the Mid-American Conference so because of that I'm going to focus instead on the conferences that I do know like the SEC and Big Ten......."
A large majority of CFB bettors don't have a clue about these smaller teams, either, and that includes the guy who's setting the prices on these games, the oddsmakers. Less knowledge and information of these team makes for softer betting lines, and that's where the biggest mistakes will be on the CFB betting board. Before this football season I went back and looked at my past four football seasons and noticed that I had a spectacular 73-45 in games involving teams from the three smallest conferences in CFB and I also had a winning season every year as well on these games. I decided that I would make it a point going into this year to focus on these smaller games first when I start to do my handicapping of the games each week, and it has paid off again this year as I'm 11-4 overall this season on these plays. I always make sure to have at least a few of these smaller games on my weekly football card, and going forward I will have even more than normal this week also.
Information is what wins when it comes to being a winning sports handicapper. If an Ohio State Buckeyes player gets hurt or if Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh says something noteworthy, everyone knows about this and instantly, but if something like this happens at Louisiana Tech or UTEP, the betting markets usually won't notice it or factor that into the line -- having this information ends up usually gives you an edge.
I've found some excellent winning information just by putting the time in each week and studying these teams. In the last five years I've had 16 'higher rated' 6/7/8 Unit plays in games from these three small conferences and I've went an eye popping 14-2 overall in those 16 games, with most of them being easy blowout winners. Just last weekend I had read Old Dominion head coach Bobby Wilder talking about how he felt his ODU was much improved this year, how this may be his best team yet in his eighth season at the school and how he felt they could make a lot of noise in Conference USA play. This isn't the type of stuff that you hear from a CFB head coach, especially one that hasn't been winning a lot through the years as they just don't want the added pressure UNLESS the coach really does believes it's true and feels very strongly about his team. You could really sense that Wilder was very excited and speaking truthfully about his team being greatly improved this year.
The thing that made this information so valuable was because it was hard to see these types of improvements if you were only looking at how ODU had played so far in their games this year, which is how 99 percent of handicappers looks at things. A lot of the reason for their slow start was actually due to them having played an extremely difficult early-season schedule. I also knew that on the other side of this game their opponent was Charlotte, which has been one of the worst FBS programs in the country. There has been no signs this year of them being any better than past years, either, and no talk also that they are on the upswing or progressing. The Old Dominion coach sounded confident and excited knowing that he had the much better team and he made it feel like they were on the cusp of playing a big game, which they did. Anyone can recite how well a team has played so far this year, but the real key to being a winning sports bettor is knowing how a team will play going forward and in their next game. I used all of this information and knowledge along with a few other small variables to come to the decision to release Old Dominion -8.5 over Charlotte as my October Game of the Month, and ODU cruised to a 52-17 thrashing of Charlotte as that outcomes was never in doubt as early as the second quarter.
I have another play that's just like this going this Saturday, Oct. 8, that comes out of the Sun Belt Conference. In fact I like it even more than the ODU play last week as the betting markets have again look to have priced a team completely wrong. In fact, it's so far off from what I believe what the right spread should be that I'm making it my biggest 8-Unit CFB Game of the Year!!!!! The reason the line in this game is off is because people just don't dig into these smaller teams like they do with an LSU, USC and the Ohio States of CFB. It takes time and effort to do that, but the information is out there if you put in the work. If you want to be a better CFB handicapper then these smaller types games are where you should be concentrating first as it's much easier to find winning information that will gives you an edge over the others in these games over something say out of the Pac-12 Conference.
Every sport has this type of winning information that's not factored into the point spread enough. In the NFL it's injury information that can really give you the best shot at winning and an overall edge in games. I used injury information last year to have my best season ever betting on pro football as I ended the year with an unbelievable 60 percent win rate overall for the 2015 NFL season. I'm back at it again this year as well as I'm off to a 10-5 start overall with my NFL selections this season as I'm basing a lot of my selections on not only who's hurt but who's coming back this week and who's missed what games so far and how them being out of action had an effect on a team's past results. The NFL is thought to be the toughest sport for most handicappers to beat, but I don't see it that way at all. There's usually at least 1 play a week where you can gain have a large edge in the NFL, and my 20-9 record over the past 29 weeks on my top NFL Game of the Week is proof there are plays like that out there that are very beatable.
All the doom and gloom talk by those saying sports betting has gotten tougher to win at is a bunch of garbage. In fact I feel it's completely the opposite. I think because of the Internet nowadays anyone find the information needed to be a winning sports bettor whether that means finding the information on the teams that gives them an edge, reading articles on how to become a better handicapper from the expert sports bettors or teaming up with a winning professional sports bettor like myself so you can bet the exact same plays that they are betting. In fact, I would say there's never been easier to be a winning sports bettor!!!
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