Your Week 11 Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks article is all set. The Top 25 overall went 12-12 against the spread last week. The top seven teams went 6-1 ATS last week. Unfortunately, I had faded two of those top seven teams in the selections from last week.
The winner from last week was a great pick on TCU +8 against Baylor. TCU ended up romping Baylor 62-22 in that one. The problem with this one was it was only a one unit play. Baylor played like a team that had nothing to play for a week after their perfect season was ruined in a loss to Texas. The two losers from last week were Syracuse and Nebraska. Both of these were blowout losses that never had a chance.
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The Syracuse play was unfortunate because their starting quarterback, Eric Dungey, went down with an injury in the first quarter. The drop off from Dungey to the backups at Syracuse is huge. After Dungey went down, the play didn't have a chance. Nebraska was blown out 62-3 by Ohio State. Where did that Ohio State performance come from? As a Buckeyes fan myself, I couldn't believe the way they played last week after lackluster efforts against Penn State and Northwestern. Nebraska was dominated in every aspect of the game.
The goal of this article is to track how teams in the weekly Top 25 do against the spread. We're here to look a little deeper than most and figure out how the top ranked teams do at the betting window. In addition, in this weekly article I'll be taking a look at which Top 25 teams I think are best to fade that particular week.
Play #1- Texas -2 (3 unit play) vs. West Virginia - The Texas Longhorns have definitely played better in recent weeks. Their win over Baylor was big for the program, and they impressed me by following that up with a 45-37 win at Texas Tech last weekend. It would have been easy for them to have a letdown after the Baylor win, but they took care of business.
West Virginia hasn't beaten many good teams this year. The Mountaineers are overrated in my opinion. I believe this sets up as a classic public vs. sharp matchup. The Mountaineers are the ranked team, and the public will love seeing them at a plus-money price.
Texas is averaging 5.08 yards per carry, and D'Onta Foreman needs to start getting some Heisman Trophy love. Foreman has rushed for at least 124 yards in all of Texas' games this year. He ran for a whopping 341 yards last weekend.
West Virginia is allowing 4.03 yards per carry on the season, and I think Texas runs the ball down their throat in this one. I see West Virginia as an overrated team and Texas as a team that is turning the corner of late. Take Texas at home and lay the very short number.
Play #2- Arkansas +7 (2 unit play) vs. LSU- The LSU Tigers are coming off a 10-0 loss to Alabama. That was one of the most physical college football games you will ever see. It's tough to get off the mat and come back ready for next week after a loss like that. The Tigers put so much into that game, and to come up empty had to hurt.
Now they must travel to Arkansas to take on a Razorbacks team that is coming off a really impressive win over Florida. The Razorbacks are still being undervalued by the betting market because of their terrible loss to Auburn a couple weeks ago. In my opinion, when a good team like Arkansas loses in that fashion, it can create value for a long period of time.
These two teams are rivals, and I think both will play hard, but I expect Arkansas to have more in the tank. Grab the points at home.
Play #3- South Carolina +11 (1 unit play) vs. Florida- The Florida Gators have 13 players on their injury report this week. Luke Del Rio is out for this game, and it is Austin Appleby who will be starting. The front seven on defense has been completely torn apart with injuries.
The posted total on this game is 37.5 points. Any time I see an underdog of 11 points with a posted total of 37.5, I have to at least take a look at the underdog. That's a bunch of points in a game that is expected to be extremely low scoring.
It's important to point out that South Carolina has definitely played better since freshman quarterback Jake Bentley took over. He has thrown six touchdowns and no interceptions. Still, Bentley has yet to face a defense even close to as good as this Florida defense (even with their injuries), so I'll limit this to a one unit play.
Last Week's Results: 1 Win (TCU +8 for 1 unit) 2 Losses (Syracuse +26 for 3 units and Nebraska +17 for 2 units)
Fade the Top 25 Selections Year to Date: 15 Wins 18 Losses (+$350)
Overall Top 25 ATS Record Last Week: 12 Wins 12 Losses
Cumulative Overall Top 25 ATS Record Year to Date: 98 Wins (45.2%) 118 Losses (54.4%) 1 Tie (0.4%)
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