MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
The MLB All Star Game is this coming Tuesday. It's the one break during the long grind of the baseball season. The players will certainly enjoy their break, and bettors should enjoy a little break from the action on the diamond as well. I think it's important to note that the time right before and right after the break is a very tricky one to handicap, so be careful with your plays in the coming days. It might be a good time to be more selective.
What does the totals picture look like as a whole so far this year? The under is 699-636 (52.36 percent unders) overall. Extra inning games are 67-54 to the under, which makes very little sense. Ironically, the 52.36 percent unders is exactly the same rate the under was hitting at when we checked it two weeks ago, so there has been stability there.
The numbers below are for games played from June 28 through July 12.
Top Five 'Over' Teams (Over Listed First)
1. Cincinnati Reds (10-2-1) I said earlier this season when the Reds offense got healthy, they would be a very solid lineup. That has proven to be true. In the last month, the Reds rank first in the majors in on-base percentage. Cincinnati has gotten got production from Eugenio Suarez and Scooter Gennett so far this year. Joey Votto is having a bit of a down season by his recent standards, but he's still a tremendous centerpiece on offense. The Reds can't keep up their current pace on offense, but they'll still be good.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (10-4-1) Milwaukee's bullpen was lights out for the first few months of the season. They have struggled quite a bit in the past month. Milwaukee's bullpen ranks tenth worst in overall ERA since June 15. The Brewers are still the top team in the National League Central, but their lead is down to one game over the Cubs. It will be interesting to see if they can hold on in the second half. Milwaukee has a very difficult schedule coming out of the break, so it will be a big test.
3. Kansas City Royals (8-4) It's hard to believe this team won the World Series so recently, because they are awful. Kansas City's offense is still one of the worst in baseball. What's been causing their overs? The other team racking up all kinds of runs. In five of their last nine games, they have allowed at least seven runs. Betting totals on this team is very difficult because their offense is so bad, but their pitching is terrible too. I'd be careful playing too many totals involving the Royals.
4. Cleveland Indians (8-4-1) I feel like the Indians are coasting through this season. They know no one in the American League Central is going to pass them in the standings. The Indians are a better team than they have shown this year, and they would definitely be a tricky out in the playoffs. The bullpen continues to be a problem. Look to find some overs with value when the Indians are at home. Progressive Field is an underrated hitters park in the middle of the summer.
5. Chicago White Sox (8-5) Here's a team with some major issues in the bullpen. The White Sox bullpen has an ERA of 6.51 in the last month. The starters not getting deep into games hasn't helped a bit. The White Sox are another really bad team, and you have to wonder what their motivation level will be in the second half of the season. They will likely bring up a bunch of young guys to test them out in the majors.
Top Five 'Under' Teams (Under Listed First)
1. Detroit Tigers (10-3-1) Detroit's offense is very good against left-handed pitching, but the right-handers give them fits. Detroit ranks 24th in the majors in batting average against right-handed pitching. The Tigers are third in the majors in batting average against left-handed pitching. Detroit's starting pitching has been better than expected this year. Jordan Zimmermann is having a nice bounce back season.
2. Tampa Bay Rays (10-3-1) Tampa Bay starting their bullpen pitchers as "openers" has been very successful thus far. I was really curious to see how it paid off, and it seems the Rays have been able to do it because of the depth of their bullpen. This team still has a subpar offense, and I would continue to look for spots to play the under with the Rays.
3. Philadelphia Phillies (10-3-1) Who would have thought the Phillies would be in first place in the National League East in the month of July? Even crazier is the fact that it is Atlanta only half a game back instead of the Washington Nationals. Philadelphia finishes the first half with the Marlins on the road, and they start the second half by hosting the Padres. These are games that the Phillies need to win and pad their lead.
4. Los Angeles Angels (9-3) Mike Trout has been amazing, but most of the guys around him have been disappointing this year. The Angels have so many injuries to starting pitchers. I would have to think this rotation gets stretched thin and they struggle in the second half. I will be looking for opportunities to take some overs with the Angels, especially when some of their youngsters who could be wearing down are on the mound later in the season.
5. Colorado Rockies (8-4-1) The Rockies have been back and forth on this report so far this season. Colorado is back above .500, and they are right in the mix in the wide open National League West. Colorado has actually been better on the road than at home so far this year. The Rockies start the second half in Arizona against the Diamondbacks, and that's a very important series for both teams.
Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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