Free MLB Picks Wednesday 9/9/2020 and Opening Line Report
It truly feels like rivalry week. But then again, every week feels like rivalry week because teams are playing the same teams consistently. That will change after three weeks. Things will be very different in October when playoff time comes around. For now, we’ll worry about Sept. 9 and the card. Let’s enjoy these big division games! Here are the leans for Wednesday’s slate in the MLB.
Marlins vs Braves 9/9/20 (-145, 9.5)
The Marlins continue to hang around in the NL East. If they want a chance at the title, they’ll need to take down the Braves. Miami will pitch Pablo Lopez who is 3-3 in seven starts with a 3.05 ERA and a 2.55 FIP. Lopez has been terrific. He’s getting nearly 60 percent of ground balls and is limiting walks and home runs while his strikeout rate is above average.
Meanwhile, the Braves will pitch Tommy Milone, who they acquired earlier in the season. Milone has had a rocky season with a 5.30 ERA and a 4.19 FIP on the season. Milone’s last start featured a bit of luck and the start before that was a brutal one against the Phillies.
The Braves are the better team but the Marlins have the better pitcher. I’d trust Lopez way more than Milone right now.
Key trends: Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Early Lean: Marlins, Over
Angels vs Rangers 9/9/20 (-110, 9.5)
The Angels and Rangers will send out two pitchers that have the potential to get shelled. The only problem is that the Rangers offense doesn’t have enough bats in their lineup to do much damage.
Things could be different as the Angels are going to pitch Julio Teheran in this one. Teheran has a 7.94 EERA and a 7.47 FIP on the season. He’s getting minimal ground balls and really lacks strikeouts this season.
Kyle Cody will get the call for the Rangers. He’s got a high strikeout rate but a very high walk rate as well ini four games and 7.1 innings pitched. Cody hasn’t allowed an earned run but metrics say he should’ve allowed a couple, especially with those high walks.
There should be fireworks in this one early and often.
Key trends: Angels are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Texas.
Early lean: Rangers, Over
Rockies vs Padres 9/9/20 (-200, 8.5)
Here’s a match-up between two surprise pitchers this season. Antonio Senzatela will take the mound for the Rockies with a 3.33 ERA and a 3-1 record on the season. He’s not racking up strikeouts but he’s minimized the walks very well and has been able to pitch around pressure situations. He’s keeping runners on base and getting 50 percent of ground balls, which has proven effective.
For the Padres, they’ll pitch Zach Davies who has really turned it up a notch this season with a 6-2 record and a 2.23 ERA along with a 3.29 FIP. Davies has a BABIP of .220 and is limiting home runs to .74 per nine innings this season. That will make the pitching coach happy.
Senzatela has had success this season, especially on the road but going up against the Padres offense that has added new pieces, I’d find it hard to believe that he exits the game without allowing anything. I wouldn’t find it hard to believe if Davies did.
Key trends: Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Early lean: Padres, Under
Astros vs Athletics 9/9/20 (-161, 9)
The Athletics will rely on young pitching stud Jesus Luzardo to go up against Luis Garcia of the Astros. Don’t be fooled by Garcia’s ERA of 2.08. He has an FIP of 7.30 and an exit velocity of 93.4 miles per hour on hits of his pitches. He’s also walking more batters than striking out on the season and has allowed 2.08 home runs per nine innings.
Luzardo hasn’t been perfect but he’s been good enough and has much better stats than Garcia. Luzardo will get high strikeout numbers and limit the long ball and has an ERA of 4.23 but an FIP of 3.70. The FIP number shows just how unlucky Luzardo has been and how lucky Garcia was in his first game of the season earlier.
Key trends: Athletics are 4-0 in their last 4 Wednesday games.
Early lean: Athletics, Over
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks 9/9/20 (+230, 8.5)
Clayton Kershaw returned from an injury and now has gone 5-1 in six starts. He has an ERA of 1.50 and an FIP of 3.26 and will get the call on the road against the Diamondbacks.
Kershaw has high strikeout numbers and low walk numbers. His BABIP is .185 and he’s getting over 60 percent of ground balls on the season.
Meanwhile, his opponent, Taylor Clarke, has all been special for the Diamondbacks. Clarke has an ERA of 2.,96 and an FIP of 4.72. He’s not allowing many hits and is keeping the ball in the yard for the most part. However, he’s walking 4.94 batters per nine innings. If Clarke can minimize walks, he would literally have ace stuff.
Clarke might match Kershaw early but he’ll end up breaking later in the game.
Key trends: Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Early lean: Dodgers -1.5, Under
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