NCAA Football Predictions: Week 6 Opening Line Report and Picks
If you’re a kid or a parent with a kid, the first thing you probably think of when October rolls around is Halloween. Decorating the house, candy, trick or treating and scary movies. What a wonderful time. If you’re a ranked team when October rolls around, you are probably not thinking about Halloween, but you should be very scared of what lies ahead. Look at Week 5 as a whole. No. 3 Oregon lost, No. 8 Arkansas lost, No. 9 Notre Dame lost, No. 10 Florida lost, No. 20 UCLA lost, and No. 21 Baylor lost. It was bloody havoc this past weekend in the college football world, and I was loving it. For the first time in a very long time, two teams – Penn State and Iowa – make their debut in the Top-4 of the CFP rankings, which means we could be getting new blood competing for a National Championship come January.
As far as last week’s results go, we had a bounce-back week by hitting three of four selections. The lone loss we had was Notre Dame as an underdog vs Cincinnati as we misread that one completely. We were spot on the money with easy winners on Air Force -10.5 over New Mexico, the under 77 in Ole Miss/Alabama (63 points) and Michigan -1 over Wisconsin in a blowout. Let’s keep the winning momentum going into Week 6.
Doc’s Sports offers college football picks for every game on our college football predictions page.
Texas Christian Horned Frogs at Texas Tech Red Raiders +1.5, 62.5
This might be a classic overreaction to last week’s results, but Texas Tech looked good and once again TCU couldn’t stop anyone on defense. Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling the Red Raiders’ defense the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. However, after getting torched for 70 points vs Texas, the Red Raiders’ strapped up their boots and held a good West Virginia team to 20 points on their home soil. They emerged with a 23-20 win, and part of that is baked into this line and is why the line has dropped from TCU -3 at opening to TCU -1.5 as of writing this. As for TCU, they have now lost two games on the trot after opening the season with two wins against poor teams. TCU has given up 42 and 32 points in those two games. And with a Red Raiders’ offense that is playing well on deck, we don’t see the Horned Frogs being able to hang with the Red Raiders. This one should feature a lot of points, and we think, at home, the Red Raiders are the play at plus money on the moneyline.
Pick: Texas Tech +1.5 + Texas Tech ML.
LSU Tigers @ Kentucky Wildcats -3, 52.5
These two teams come into this game in very different fashion. LSU is coming off a home loss to No. 22 Auburn despite having a 19-10 lead heading into the fourth quarter. The Tigers’ offense simply doesn’t have the playmakers needed to both sides of the football to keep up in the SEC, and we are seeing the results with wins against really weak squads. Now, LSU has to go on the road to Lexington to face a Kentucky side that is coming off a massive win vs No. 10 Florida. That improves the Wildcats to 5-0 on the season, and they have shown time and time again that they are in fact a really good team. Could this be a major letdown spot for Kentucky? Absolutely. We’ve seen this story before, but we aren’t going to be deterred. Kentucky has a legit defense, and I don’t see them getting beat by a very suspect quarterback and a group of skill guys that don’t inspire much confidence. Give me the Wildcats at home.
Pick: Kentucky -3
Penn State Nittany Lions at Iowa Hawkeyes -2.5, 41.5
This could very well be the game of the week and the one that has the most playoff implications. Both teams come into this game with unbeaten records. The Nittany Lions are 5-0, as are the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa sits No.3 in the country, while Penn State sits at No. 4. As of right now, both are in the playoff picture. And, unfortunately, the loser of this game is likely to get the boot from the CFP discussion no matter what happens the rest of the season. Both teams have an offense that looks great at times, then underwhelms. The defenses are legit, though, which leads me to believe this could very well be an “under” type game. The early money has come in on the Hawkeyes as they opened up at -1.5 but have since been bet up to -2.5. Only because I don’t trust Penn State on the road (the win at Wisconsin isn’t as good now because the Badgers suck), I am going to take the Hawkeyes and their ferocious defense at home in front of a raucous crowd at Kinnick Stadium.
Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes -2.5
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Syracuse Orange +6.5, 56.5
It wasn’t pretty but Wake Forest escaped Louisville with a 37-43 win as Nick Sciba’s field goal was good from 29 yards as the clock hit 0:25 seconds left in the fourth quarter. Wake Forest is now 5-0 on the season and has moved up to the No. 19 spot in the nation and now heads on the road to face a Syracuse team that lost to a really poor Florida State team last week. Wake Forest is one of the better teams in the ACC, and we just don’t see Syracuse being able to stop them or keep up on offense. This line opened up as Deacons -11 but has since been bet down to -6.5. I think that’s a really good number to get the better team at, laying less than a touchdown to a team they should dominate in the trenches. Give me the DD.
Pick: Wake Forest -6.5
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