MLB Betting Help: Hot and Cold Moneyline, Runline and Totals May 6, 2022
At almost the 30-game marker in the Major League Baseball season, teams are starting to form an identity. There are two powerhouses in New York this year, the NL West continues to be the toughest division in baseball, and C.J. Cron is leading the MLB in home runs. With a league that is more active than any other in professional sports, meaning they play almost every night of the summer, hot streaks and cold streaks from teams happen very frequently. Let’s look at what teams are making you money and losing you money so far this season.
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Hot Moneyline Teams
New York Yankees 18-6
Win % .750
Total Money $478
You either love or hate to hear that the New York Yankees are the hottest team in baseball. The stats do not lie; the Yankees have been winning by committee -- they rank 2nd in fielding percentage, 1st in Home Runs, 4th in batting average and 2nd in team ERA. What is more impressive is the Yankees play in one of the hardest divisions in baseball. Anthony Rizzo and Aaron Judge are on pace for career years as well. Ride the Yankees while they are hot. The Toronto Blue Jays just snapped their 11-game win streak, but any team that can put together 11 wins a row in the MLB is a team to safely bet the moneyline on.
Arizona Diamondbacks 13-13
Win % .500
Total Money $654
Arizona is a team that prior to opening day was predicted to win only 65 games. Playing at a .500 pace has made the Diamondbacks the most profitable moneyline team in baseball up to this point. Over the last 10 games, Arizona has not been named the moneyline favorite by oddsmakers despite winning 7 of their last 10. Coming of their first sweep of the year vs the Marlins, the Diamondbacks continued to be undervalued and have shown promise to be profitable moving forward.
Cold Moneyline Teams
Cincinnati Reds 3-22
Win % .120
Total Money -$1741
The Cincinnati Reds are the worst team in baseball, and it is not even close, as the next closest team for total money lost is the Philadelphia Phillies at -$690. As of Thursday, the Reds had 15 players on the injured list, including ace right-hander Luis Castillo, reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, former MVP Joey Votto, and three other members of the Opening Day lineup…..Tyler Naquin, Nick Senzel and Jake Fraley. Combine all that with a difficult early schedule -- 11 of the Reds’ first 13 games were on the road -- and the fact that four of their first eight series were against teams that made the NL playoffs last season, and 3-22 is not so difficult to imagine. Until some of their starters come back, the Reds lack depth, so continue betting against them.
Philadelphia Phillies 11-15
Win % .423
Total Money -$690
A team that was victim to back-to-back no-hitters is not a good sign for a team with a much-bolstered offense on paper from last season. With a combined no-hitter, the story shifts to a team that simply couldn’t get a hit, regardless of the look that’s thrown at them. Zack Wheeler, starting pitcher for the Phillies, needs to rediscover his superiority, and the Phillies bats need to start working. As of right now they are the 2nd coldest money line team in baseball.
Hot Runline Teams
Los Angeles Dodgers
Runline Record 16-7-0 (69.6%)
Total Money $916
The Scary thing about the Los Angeles Dodgers is they could be better. Relying on outstanding pitching and phenomenal defense, history’s ‘Greatest Lineup’ is off to a comparatively slow start, with a bunch of OPS in the low .700s for some of their best hitters (Trea Turner, Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger) and some inexplicably abysmal numbers for others (Max Muncy, Justin Turner). The Dodgers have a lethal combination of offense and defense, which is perfect in runline situations, and they have the fewest runs allowed by over 13 this early in the season.
New York Mets
Runline Record 17-11-0 (60.7%)
Total Money $954
The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers are in a league of their own when it comes to the Runline this season. What do both have in common? Two of the highest payrolls in baseball, three starting pitchers that could be an ace on most other teams, and a batting order that looks like your fantasy team. All this success without superstar Jacob deGrom. The Mets lead the league in OBS and second in the league in batting average as well.
Cold Runline Teams
Runline Record 10-17
Total Money -$843
After losing eight straight games, the Nationals took a series against the Giants in San Francisco, the first time a team has done that since last August. The fact is that the Nationals are still a team with the ability to lose eight in a row. The only bright spot is that they perform much better on the road for the Runline at 6-6. Patrick Corbin has also been the least profitable pitcher according to the Runline this season at -$600.
Hot Over Teams
The Cincinnati Reds are going over in most games, and not for the right reason. There are only four teams in MLB history to have worse starts then the Reds of 2022, and the Reds must be in full rebuild mode, which would be hard to see as a Reds fan as they clawed themselves out of the mud to become relevant again, and they were contending as recently as last season. They were 72-63 and in postseason position on Sept. 1, 2021.
The Guardians have had extremely hot bats to start the season; they rank top five in all hitting categories this season, led by Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan, the Guardians have been a confident Over bet so far this season. Aaron Civale has also been 3-0 when he is pitching for the Guardians, and you choose the Over.
Hot Under Teams
Baltimore, although last in their division, has looked more competitive this year and has been a part of low scoring competitive ball games so far this season. Ranking 27th in the league in hitting and middle of the pack in runs allowed this year is a recipe for producing a lot of unders.
Sixth in runs against and 22nd in runs batted in this season is why most contests for the Astros have cashed under tickets. No Carlos Correa, no George Springer and no Jose Altuve might have something to do with the lackluster offense so far, so keep a keen eye out for their returns.
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