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Changing of the Guard: Betting Angles for College Football QBs Making Their First Career Start

by Joey House - 8/26/2025

Betting angles for college QBs making their first career start Joey Aguilar Tennessee Volunteers

In the high-stakes world of college football, few positions carry as much weight as quarterback. The signal-caller is often the face of the program, dictating offensive rhythm, morale, and ultimately, wins. Each offseason, the quarterback carousel spins wildly due to NFL drafts, transfers, and graduations, leaving teams to break in new starters. For the 2025 season, this turnover is particularly pronounced in powerhouse conferences, with the AP preseason No. 1 Texas and No. 3 Ohio State both turning to first-year starters under center.

This annual upheaval, which is becoming increasingly common, doesn't just test coaching staffs. It scrambles betting models and opens windows for sharp wagering. Oddsmakers must price games with incomplete intel, while their adversaries hunt for inefficiencies in early-season lines. Who's ready to lead and who's overhyped? In this piece, we'll dissect the quarterback transitions shaping the season, explore how sportsbooks adjust to uncertainty, and identify where the true value lies before the market catches up.

To isolate these volatile betting scenarios, this piece focuses strictly on quarterbacks entering Week 1 with no career starts. Game-time experience in relief doesn't disqualify them—what matters is that they've never opened a game as QB1. That distinction is critical. In the Texas–Ohio State opener, Arch Manning may be a new starter, but he saw live action last season and returns with system familiarity. Julian Sayin, on the other hand, fits the model exactly: no prior starts, limited game tape, and a debut on the road against the top-ranked team in the country. These are the quarterbacks who distort betting lines, scramble projections, and offer the clearest angles for early-season value.

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Causes and Past Results of Increased QB Turnover in College Football

First-time starting quarterbacks are increasing in college football primarily because of heightened roster turnover fueled by the transfer portal, which enables players to pursue better Name, Image, and Likeness deals or opportunities at higher-profile programs, often leaving Group of 5 teams as talent feeders to Power Four schools and creating numerous vacancies that must be filled by less experienced signal-callers, including freshmen. This dynamic results in teams essentially rebuilding their depth charts annually, with 14 Power Four programs projected to start untested quarterbacks who have fewer than 100 FBS snaps since 2022, opening doors for first-time contributors to step up quickly. Compounding this trend is the surge in early enrollees, as more high school prospects join college teams in January to gain a head start through spring practices, offseason workouts, and academic acclimation, making them more competitive for starting positions as true freshmen. Additionally, top recruits are arriving better prepared physically and skillfully, often filling key roles due to depth chart gaps from NFL departures or injuries, with examples like highly ranked freshmen such as Dylan Raiola at Nebraska last year and Bryce Underwood at Michigan expected to make immediate impacts this year.

In 2023, there were 13 programs that kicked off their season with a QB starting his first game. They compiled a respectable record 9-4 straight-up, but cost their backers money going just 5-8 against the spread. Kyle McCord of Ohio State and Brendan Sorsby of Indiana squared off, with the Buckeyes getting a non-covering 23-3 win. Michigan State's Noah Kim triumphed 31-7 as two-touchdown favorites over Central Michigan and Bert Emanuel. This performance highlighted the unpredictability of betting on inexperienced QBs, as even in wins, covering the spread proved challenging for bettors due to inflated lines based on team reputation rather than the rookies' unproven capabilities.

2024 saw the number of season-opening QBs making their first start explode with 21 instances. They had a 15-6 SU but only 11-10 ATS mark. Notable examples include Dylan Raiola at Nebraska, who led his team to a convincing 40-7 victory over UTEP as 27.5-point favorites, comfortably covering the spread. However, Michigan barely held off Fresno State 30-10 but failed to cover as 21.5-point favorites, showcasing the potential for underwhelming performances. Similarly, South Carolina edged Old Dominion 23-19 without covering the 20.5-point line, and Michigan State squeaked by Florida Atlantic 16-10, falling short as 13-point favorites. These results underscore the growing volatility at the position, offering bettors both opportunities and pitfalls as teams adjust to new starters amid high expectations.

Games Featuring First-Time Starting Quarterbacks and Betting Angles

As the 2025 college football season kicks off, several intriguing matchups spotlight first-time starting quarterbacks, often leading to unpredictable outcomes that bettors should approach with caution. Historical trends from 2023 (5-8 ATS) and 2024 (11-10 ATS) show these teams typically secure straight-up wins but struggle to cover spreads, particularly when favored heavily, due to adjustment periods, conservative play-calling, and inflated lines based on team reputation rather than the inexperience at the position. This volatility creates opportunities to fade big favorites against the spread or bet underdogs in closer contests, while also considering unders if defenses dominate early.

One key game is Michigan hosting New Mexico on August 30, where true freshman Bryce Underwood steps in as the Wolverines' first-time starter amid high expectations following his standout fall camp performance. Michigan is favored by 34.5 points, and while the Wolverines should dominate straight-up against an overmatched opponent, covering such a large spread is risky given past trends of new QBs underperforming against inflated lines; consider New Mexico +34.5 or the under on the 49.5 total if Michigan plays conservatively to build Underwood's confidence.

Another marquee clash pits Ohio State against Texas on August 30 in Columbus, with Julian Sayin making his first start for the Buckeyes as a second-year player, while Texas counters with Arch Manning in his debut as the full-time starter. Ohio State is a slim 2.5-point favorite in this top-5 showdown, and the inexperience on both sides could lead to a low-scoring affair, making the under on the 48.5 total appealing, or bet Texas +2.5 as the underdog with potential to exploit early jitters from Sayin.

Notre Dame travels to Miami on August 31, where redshirt freshman CJ Carr takes over as the Irish's first-time starter, facing off against Miami's transfer quarterback Carson Beck in his debut for the Hurricanes. With Notre Dame favored by 2.5 points, Carr's readiness has been questioned in camp reports, adding uncertainty in a road opener; fade Notre Dame against the spread given new QB trends, betting Miami +2.5 for value in what could be a defensive battle, pushing the under on the 49.5 total.

Alabama hosts Florida State on August 30, with Ty Simpson stepping up as the Crimson Tide's first-time starter against a rebuilding Seminoles squad. Alabama is laying 13 points, and while Simpson's unknown factor suggests a win but possibly not a blowout, aligning with historical ATS struggles for inexperienced QBs as double-digit favorites, take Florida State +13 or the under on the 50.5 total, expecting early-season rust.

Syracuse faces Tennessee on August 30 in a neutral-site game, featuring Steve Angeli as Syracuse's transfer first-time starter against Joey Aguilar, who is debuting for the Volunteers after transferring from UCLA. Tennessee is favored by 13.5 points, and Angeli's debut in a spotlight could keep things competitive initially; trends favor fading large favorites with new QBs, so bet Syracuse +13.5 for a potential cover in a game where the under on the 55.5 total might hit if defenses dictate the pace.

UCF hosts Jacksonville State on August 28, with Cam Fancher taking the reins as UCF's first-time transfer starter. UCF is an 18.5-point favorite, and Fancher's prior experience should help secure an outright win, but covering a big spread is challenging per past data; angle toward Jacksonville State +18.5 or the under on the 52.5 total if the Knights ease into the season without forcing plays.

Finally, California visits Oregon State on August 30, where true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele makes his first start for the Golden Bears. Oregon State is favored by 3 points, and Sagapolutele's raw talent faces a tough road test; with new QB volatility, bet California +3 as the underdog to cover or push the under on the 50.5 total in a grind-it-out opener.

These angles leverage the pattern of strong straight-up performances but ATS shortcomings for teams breaking in new quarterbacks, offering bettors edges in spreads and totals amid the excitement of Week 1.

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