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NCAA Football Predictions: Week 2 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 9/2/2025

College football Week 2 opening line report Malik Washington Maryland

Welcome to this week's College Football Opening Line Report. North Carolina's opener looked more like the Belichick-era Browns than a playoff-caliber team, setting the tone for a weekend of exposed hype and early market corrections. Week 2 lines reflect the shift, with favorites losing support, totals adjusting to tempo, and sharp movement backing teams that delivered under pressure. You can count on Doc's to be with you every step of the way to help you sort out the wheat from the chaff.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Over-reactions in the Market

If Week 1 is all about expectations, then Week 2 is all about over-reactions. The opening games set the stage with high hopes and bold predictions. Still, once the results roll in, betting markets swing wildly based on a single data point, often inflating spreads or totals without considering the bigger picture. It's crucial to look beyond the flashy individual efforts or team meltdowns that capture headlines and consider factors like opponent strength, coaching adjustments, or simple variance in early-season play. Savvy observers know this volatility creates prime betting edges, as lines chase public sentiment rather than long-term trends.

Heisman hopefuls can't win the coveted trophy in the first week, but they can certainly derail a campaign. A quarterback torching a weak defense might see his odds inflate overnight, drawing attention and early bets, but the performance rarely holds weight once real competition starts. Meanwhile, a preseason favorite who stumbles, throws picks, struggles with efficiency, or loses to an unranked team can watch his candidacy collapse under the weight of a single outing. While LSU's Jayden Daniels began his 2023 Heisman season with a 45-24 loss to Florida State, Daniels looked superb, going 21-31 for 342 yards and 4 TD passes and 1 interception. Arch Manning's performance against Ohio State was a far cry from that, going 17-30 for 170 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception.

Unfortunately, last week's OLR resembled Arch's lackluster effort, as we went 1-2 to kick off the season. Boise State started the debacle by getting upset against unranked South Florida, 34-7. Texas followed that up in their 14-7 loss to Ohio State. Luckily, Lincoln Riley wasn't very welcoming to FBS newcomer Missouri State, as his Trojans covered their 35-point spread easily in the 73-13 victory.

Northern Illinois vs. Maryland (-18.5/47.5) Sep. 4, 7:30 pm BTN

Last year, Northern Illinois shocked the world in Week 2 when they defeated No. 5 Notre Dame 16-14 in South Bend. However, that team was loaded with senior experience, and this year's edition of the Huskies returns a mere six starters. Their inexperience showed a non-inspiring 19-17 win against FCS Holy Cross. Now they travel to Maryland to take on a Terps squad that is green themselves, with just 10 starters from a 4-8 SU/ATS Maryland team. Maryland lost QB Billy Edwards to the transfer portal, but freshman Malik Washington looked good in his college debut, going 27-43 (62.8%) for 258 yards and 3 TDs without a pick. Last year's massive upset of Notre Dame was Northern Illinois's highlight in a ho-hum 8-5 campaign. We don't think they'll pull off another shocker, but 18.5 points (and probably rising) seems too much to ask of a true freshman QB.

PICK: Northern Illinois +18.5

Florida International vs. No. 2 Penn State (-41.5/54.5) Sep. 6, 12:00 pm BTN

Penn State looked solid against an overmatched Nevada side, winning 46-11. However, they failed to cover the 42.5-point spread when James Franklin opted to go for it on a 4th-and-2 at the Nevada 48-yard line. Given my advanced age and vivid memory of Joe Paterno's coaching, a punt would have been the more prudent choice, especially with the team up 43 points and 1:54 left in the game. Florida International travels to Happy Valley fresh off its 42-9 drubbing of FCS Bethune-Cookman. Oddsmakers are evidently not overly impressed with the Panthers' results, as FIU opened as a 42.5-point favorite. The public, however, seems more enamored, having garnered 73% of the wagers placed and moving the line slightly down to 41.5. Penn State feasts on inferior out-of-conference foes, as the Nittany Lions are 13-4 ATS over their last 17 games in September. They are also 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS when favored by 40+ points under Jimmy Frank, scoring an average of 61.4 points. This makes the most common bet among squares, the favorite, and the over, the sharp play this weekend.

PICK: Penn State -41.5 and OVER 54.5

Middle Tennessee State vs. Wisconsin (-28.5/45.5) Sep. 6, 4:00 pm Fox Sports 1

Middle Tennessee State is catching 28.5 points at Camp Randall against Wisconsin, where a quarterback curse seems to loom, with the Badgers' starting transfer quarterback injured for the third straight season, leaving backup Danny O'Neil to helm an offense that stalled repeatedly in a 17-0 shutout of Miami Ohio, managing just 120 passing yards with one touchdown and one interception while leaning heavily on a defense that held the RedHawks to 117 total yards. Meanwhile, MTSU suffered a 34-14 loss to FCS Austin Peay, averaging a dismal 2.9 yards per pass and allowing five sacks. However, quarterback Nicholas Vattiato still threw two touchdowns without turnovers. The Blue Raiders have covered in four of their last six against Power Five foes, often rising to the occasion in early road games. Wisconsin failed to cover as a 27-point favorite last week and has not covered in its last five games when laying 24 or more points, suggesting that MTSU's experienced quarterback and pressure-generating defense can exploit the Badgers' offensive adjustments under a new coordinator and quarterback, keeping the game within four scores.

Missouri State vs. Marshall (-10/57.5) Sep. 6, 6:00 pm ESPN+

Marshall is laying 10 points at home against Missouri State after both teams were blown out in Week 1, with the Herd falling 45-7 to Georgia and the Bears getting dismantled 73-13 by USC. Despite the lopsided scores, Marshall showed more composure and structural integrity, as Zion Turner went 6-for-7 for 100 yards and the offensive line held up better than expected against an SEC front. Missouri State, meanwhile, surrendered over 600 yards and allowed 10 plays of 20+ yards while Jacob Clark threw two interceptions and the defense failed to generate any resistance. Marshall has won five straight at home and closed last season with a 31-3 win over UL, while Missouri State is 0-1 ATS this year and has failed to cover in its last five games as a double-digit dog. Marshall covers because the Bears struggle to protect the football, fail to stop explosive plays, and cannot compete against FBS-level speed or discipline.

PICK: Marshall -10

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