2026 Houston Astros Predictions with Odds to Win World Series and Futures Picks
The Houston Astros will enter the 2026 season with one thing on their mind, returning to the playoffs. They missed out entirely last season, thanks to the emergence of the Seattle Mariners, and have not won a playoff game since 2023. Another big reason for missing out was the health of their star bat, Yordan Alvarez, who played in just 48 games. The pitching staff has completely redone heading into the new season, and the Astros are ready for a full year with their old friend Carlos Correa. However, catching uncertainty and bullpen health and depth will be key factors in making or breaking the Houston campaign.
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Summary of Last Season
Last season, the Astros missed out on playoff action after going 87-75. While they did manage to finish 12 games over .500, they posted a lowly +21-run differential. They struggled to gain any momentum on the road, going just 41-40 last season.
The lineup was below league average last season. They ranked just 21st in runs scored, 16th in homeruns, and 15th in OPS. They also struggled with plate discipline last season, managing just 471 walks which ranked 26th in the MLB. Jeremy Pena led the team with 5.6 WAR, posting 17 homeruns, a team best 20 stolen bases, and 62 RBIs. Christian Walker led the team with 27 homeruns, 88 RBIs, but he hit just .238 at the plate and managed a 0.2 WAR. Yainer Diaz finished second on the Astros with a 2.7 WAR after hitting 20 homeruns, posting 70 RBIs, and 25 doubles. Jose Altuve made the most of his move to the outfield, hitting 26 homeruns and tallying 77 RBIs, proving that his bat was worthy of a lineup spot.
The pitching staff was better than their lineup but was nowhere near the dominance we have seen in recent years. They finished 11th in the league with a 3.86 ERA, 8th in the league with a 1.22 WHIP, and 15th in walks. It is worth noting that they finished second in the league in strikeouts, and their 70 quality starts ranked third in the MLB. Hunter Brown emerged as the true ace of this staff after posting a 6.1 WAR last season. He finished with a 12-9 record with 21 quality starts, a 2.43 ERA, a 10.0 K/9 ratio, and a strong 1.03 WHIP. Framber Valdez led the team with 192 innings pitched, and he was right on the heels of Brown with 20 quality starts. Valdez finished the season with a 3.8 WAR, and a 3.66 ERA. Out of the bullpen, Josh Hader led the team with 28 saves, though injuries limited his impact last season. Bryan Abreu posted a 2.28 ERA in a setup role last season, while finishing with 25 holds.
Key Additions/Losses
The most notable subtraction from last year’s squad is Valdez whose departure leaves a huge hole in the pitching rotation. The Astros also saw infielder Brendan Rodgers, outfield Chas McCormick, catcher Victor Caratini, pitcher Luis Garcia, and reliever Craig Kimbrel hit the free agent market. Houston traded shortstop Mauricio Dubon to the Braves, and they traded outfielder Jesus Sanchez to the Blue Jays.
The Astros did not waste any time revamping their pitching staff. They signed wild card target Nate Pearson, then followed that up by signing one of the biggest international talents available this offseason in Tatsuya Imai. In the trade with the Braves, they received infielder Nick Allen who will add some depth, while also signing pitcher Peter Lambert, and adding utility man Cavan Biggio.
Prospect Outlook
One area the Astros are lacking is prospects. While the franchise did obtain their ultimate goal of a ring, their winning core has aged, with some departing, and they don’t have the prospect pool to retool their roster. Their farm system ranks 29th in the MLB, ahead of just the San Diego Padres, and they do not have a prospect ranked inside the MLB’s Top 100 Prospects rankings. The roster is aged, and the team does not have as much fire power.
X-Factors
The Pitching Staff- Yes, the whole staff. While replacing Valdez is no easy task, it is made easier with healthy arms across the board. If Lance McCullers Jr. can stay healthy and return to his prior form, if Hader can stay healthy for most of the season, as well as arms like Ronel Blanco, and Christian Javier then the rotation has the potential to be one of the best in the MLB, and it would be anchored by one of the games most dominant closers. Another swinging factor for this pitching staff is the success of Imai coming over here from Japan. He posted a 1.92 last season, while striking out 178 batters in 163.2 innings. If he can reliably eat innings and be half as dominant, the Astros pitching staff will lead this team back to the playoffs.
Yordan Alvarez- As stated, he managed to appear in just 48 games. In those games, he hit just six homeruns. If he can return to his elite self, the Astros lineup will get a much-needed boost. His presence will add protection for Walker and Correa, furthering their chances of success. His health has gotten the better of him throughout his career. Despite his heavy DH presence, he has yet to appear in all games of the season and he has played in just 63.5% of the Astros games over the last three seasons. He needs to stay healthy and in the lineup.
2026 Houston Astros Notable Odds:
Win Total: 85.5
World Series Champions- +2200
Pennant Winners- +1000
Division Winners- +240
AL MVP- Yordan Alvarez +3500
AL MVP- Jeremy Pena +8000
AL MVP- Jose Altuve +10000
AL Cy Young- Hunter Brown +1200
AL Rookie of the Year- Brice Matthews +5000
2026 Houston Astros Predictions:
While the ceiling of the Astros rotation is higher than most will realize, they have not been able to stay healthy, and it is hard to bet on injury prone arms. Seattle will be right back atop the division and Texas has improved its roster in order to be more of a threat in the division. They won’t win the division, but if the rotation can be healthy in the playoffs, they could be a dangerous threat to win the AL. Brown at +1200 to win the Cy Young brings nice value after his year last season, but the Astros do not have another legit candidate for any other futures award this season. Take the flier on Brown to win the Cy Young and stay away from this win total. Houston will live and die by pitching injuries this season, too risky.
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