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March Madness Seed Statistics and Probabilities

by Spencer Toth - 3/17/2026

March Madness seed statistics Maliq Brown Duke Blue Devils

March Madness is days away from tipping off, and the allure of the perfect bracket draws in casual fans and experienced professionals alike. While securing the perfect bracket is unlikely, using seeding statistics can go a long way in helping you stay ahead of the chasing pack. There will be upsets along the way -- you can count on it -- but some seeds have done much better in the past than others. By examining seeding trends from the last 40 years, we can maximize our odds of coming out on top, or at the very least, avoiding embarrassment with a last-place finish. 

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Opening Round:
#1 vs #16 Seed: 158-2 (98.8%)

#2 vs #15 Seed: 149-11 (93.1%)

#3 vs #14 Seed: 137-23 (85.6%)

#4 vs #13 Seed: 127-33 (79.4%)

#5 vs #12 Seed: 103-57 (64.4%)

#6 vs #11 Seed: 98-62 (61.3%)

#7 vs #10 Seed: 98-62 (61.3%)

#8 vs #9 Seed: 77-83 (48.1%)

Everyone loves a good upset in March Madness, but not all seeds are built equal. The top two seeds rarely lose, and they should be sent straight into the second round on almost all your bracket entries. Looking at the third and fourth seeds, the math says seven of the eight favorites will advance, with potentially one big upset in the first round. While picking which team gets knocked off comes with a huge reward and extra variance, turning down a seed with a ~80% win rate is not a wise move. The bottom half of the list is where the upsets will come. Seeds 5 through 8 are far from safe, as more than 1/3 of the lower-seeded teams have advanced. Unless you are a college basketball sharp, historical trends suggest that your guess is as good as mine. More than 70% of the first-round upsets come from these four seeds, with the No. 9 seed outperforming the No. 8 seed by a handful of victories. 

Odds to Reach Sweet Sixteen:

#1 Seed: 85.0%

#2 Seed: 64.4%

#3 Seed: 52.5%

#4 Seed: 48.1%

#5 Seed: 34.4%

#6 Seed: 29.4%

#7 Seed: 18.1%

#8 Seed: 10.0%

#9 Seed: 5.0%

#10 Seed: 15.0%

#11 Seed: 16.9%

#12 Seed: 13.8%

#13 Seed: 3.8%

#14 Seed: 1.3%

#15 Seed: 2.5%

#16 Seed: 0%

It takes two victories to reach the Sweet Sixteen of March Madness, and there is still plenty of variance at this stage of the tournament. The top seed still stands above the rest, but a spot in the Sweet Sixteen is far from guaranteed for seeds 2 through 4, despite more than 85% of them escaping the first round. A double-digit seed has reached the Sweet Sixteen in 38 of the 40 NCAA tournaments, including at least one in each of the last 17 years. There is a dip in the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds at this stage of the tournament, as they are almost always matched up against a No. 1 seed after the first round. Seeds 10 through 12 appear to be the sweet spot, as they are a toss-up in the first round, then have to upset a non- No. 1 seed in the second round. If the No. 12 seed can upset No. 5 in the first round, they have roughly a 40% chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen after a matchup against either No. 4 or No. 13. If you have selected a few of the double digit seeds to reach the second round, don’t hesitate to pull the trigger again with another relatively easy matchup. 

Odds to Reach the Elite Eight

#1 Seed: 66.9%

#2 Seed: 45.0%

#3 Seed: 25.6%

#4 Seed: 15.6%

#5 Seed: 7.5%

#6 Seed: 10.6%

#7 Seed: 6.3%

#8 Seed: 5.6%

#9 Seed: 3.1%

#10 Seed: 5.6%

#11 Seed: 6.3%

#12 Seed: 1.3%

#13 Seed: 0%

#14 Seed: 0%

#15 Seed: 0.6%

#16 Seed: 0%

This is where Cinderella stories come to an end. While stringing together a pair of upsets is plausible for lower-seeded teams, a third straight win is often too much to ask. Only one No. 15 seed has ever reached the Elite Eight, which happened in 2022, while the next lowest seed is up at No. 12. Even then, only a handful of non-top-4 seeds reach this stage of the competition, as it often requires knocking out at least two higher-ranked seeds along the way. The top seed reaches the Elite Eight more than 2/3 of the time, while they are often joined with another seed in a podium position. 

Odds to Reach the Final Four:

#1 Seed: 41.3%

#2 Seed: 20.0%

#3 Seed: 10.6%

#4 Seed: 9.4%

#5 Seed: 5.6%

#6 Seed: 1.9%

#7 Seed: 1.9%

#8 Seed: 3.8%

#9 Seed: 1.3%

#10 Seed: 0.6%

#11 Seed: 3.8%

#12 Seed: 0%

#13 Seed: 0%

#14 Seed: 0%

#15 Seed: 0%

#16 Seed: 0%

Reaching the Final Four is no easy task. The top seed does it more than 40% of the time, while a top-four seed is responsible for 81.3% of the Final Four berths. When crafting your bracket, any of the top four seeds have a plausible chance of winning the conference, but taking at least one No. 1 seed is all but mandatory if you are looking for a clean sweep in the Final Four. Last year, all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four for the second time in tournament history, with an average of 1.65 No. 1 seeds remaining at this stage of the tournament. 

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