March Madness Upset Predictions for 2026 NCAA Tournament - First Round

by Joey House - 3/18/2026

March Madness upset predictions Trey Campbell

If you've ever filled out a bracket in March, you know the first round of the NCAA tournament is where the real madness begins. Every year, some double-digit seed comes out of nowhere, knocks off a big-time favorite, and every bracket in the country goes up in smoke. Upsets like these are what make March special. One minute you're feeling good about your picks, the next you're out of your seat because some kid nobody's heard of just caught fire. The first round is unpredictable, wild, and better than anything you could script.

This is what fans live for. Upsets are why everybody drops what they're doing and glues themselves to the TV from the first tip. There's nothing better than watching a no-name school with zero NBA prospects topple a team loaded with future pros. The place goes absolutely nuts, Twitter loses its mind, and suddenly everyone in America is pulling for the little guys.

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Creating Order From The Chaos

If you're trying to make sense of the chaos, the trick isn't to avoid it. It's to figure out where it's most likely to show up. Certain stats consistently point to the double-digit seeds that can actually pull off upsets. Once you know what to look for, the picture becomes a lot clearer.

Start with offensive rebounding. If you're an underdog, extra possessions are everything. Missed shots do not end the trip; they extend it. Teams like Cal Baptist, Kennesaw St, and Santa Clara all rank among the nation's best in offensive rebounding percentage, consistently crashing the glass for second chances. Over the course of a game, those additional opportunities can quietly close the gap against a more talented opponent.

Next, consider the forced turnover rate. Teams like McNeese, High Point, and Howard post high forced-turnover percentages, disrupting opponents' rhythm and generating easy chances. When underdogs create steals at a consistent rate, they inject the kind of chaos that favorites struggle to handle.

Then there is three-point shooting, one of the biggest drivers of tournament variance. Underdogs won't win by playing it safe. They need to stretch the floor and score in bursts. Teams like Texas A&M, Santa Clara, and South Florida rely heavily on the three-point line. A short run of made threes can erase a deficit in a matter of minutes and completely change the feel of a game.

Finally, pace shapes the entire environment. Slower teams limit possessions and reduce the number of chances a favorite has to assert control. Northern Iowa, Siena, and Hofstra all play at a controlled tempo, turning games into tighter, more deliberate battles. In those situations, every possession carries more weight, and the margin for error shrinks.

Any one of these traits can give a favorite trouble. When a team can combine them, that is when things get dangerous. Control possessions, create extra ones, and introduce just enough chaos to make the game uncomfortable. That is how upsets are built.

Best Potential Upset From Each Region

South Region: No. 12 McNeese (+ML) over No. 5 Nebraska (-/ O/U)

McNeese has one of the most complete upset profiles in the field. They force turnovers at an elite rate, which creates extra possessions and easy scoring chances. They also rebound well enough to extend their own opportunities and play at a controlled pace that limits Nebraska's ability to pull away. When a team can both take the ball and control tempo, it puts constant pressure on the favorite. If Nebraska struggles with ball security early, McNeese has the tools to turn that into a tight game late, where anything can happen.

East Region: No. 12 Northern Iowa (+ML) over No. 5 St. John's (-/ O/U)

South Florida shows up across multiple key categories, which gives them the balance that many double-digit seeds lack. They force turnovers at a high rate and shoot a high volume of threes, which creates both extra possessions and scoring bursts. They also rebound well enough to stay competitive physically. When a team can create chaos defensively and capitalize from the perimeter, it becomes very difficult to put away, especially if they find a rhythm early.

West Region: No. 12 High Point (+ML) over No. 5 Wisconsin (-/ O/U)

High Point's strength is forcing turnovers and pressuring opposing offenses. This disrupts teams that thrive on control, like Wisconsin. Live-ball turnovers fuel transition points, so if High Point speeds up the game at key times, they have a clear upset path.

Midwest Region: No. 12 Santa Clara (+ML) over No. 5 Texas Tech (-/ O/U)

Hofstra brings a unique combination of slow pace and perimeter shooting that makes them a dangerous underdog. They play at one of the slowest tempos in the field, which limits possessions and forces a more controlled, half-court game. That alone reduces Alabama's ability to create separation. On top of that, Hofstra shoots a high volume of threes, giving them the ability to score in bursts and close gaps quickly. When you combine tempo control with shooting variance, it creates the kind of environment where a higher seed can get uncomfortable late.

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Start:	March 18, 2026 @ 11:00 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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March Madness Upset Predictions for 2026 NCAA Tournament - First Round

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