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2026 Seattle Mariners Predictions with Odds to Win World Series and Futures Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/18/2026

Seattle Mariners predictions Cal Raleigh

Seattle is coming off one of the most important seasons in franchise history. They secured their first AL West division title in 24 years, and they are primed to defend that title and compete for a World Series berth. Cal Raleigh is coming off one of the best seasons in franchise history, and his bat will be heavily relied on again this season. If Seattle can get consistency from Julio Rodriguez, that will alleviate pressure on Raleigh, as Rodriguez has flashed that MVP-caliber skillset. Finally, a healthy rotation could put this team on a fast track to a deep postseason run.

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Summary of Last Season

Last season, the Mariners finished the season atop the AL West division with a 90-72 record, while finishing with a +72-run differential. They dominated at home, posting a 51-30 record, but their road performance was one of the worst among playoff-caliber teams. They finished the season with a 39-42 record away from home. Seattle upended the Detroit Tigers in the Divisional Round after taking the series in five games, but their run ended in the ALCS when they lost to Toronto in seven games.

The lineup took a huge step forward for Seattle last season, which really propelled them to an elite level. They finished ninth in runs scored, third in homeruns, 10th in OPS, third in steals, and ninth in walks. Raleigh’s 7.3 WAR led the team and was good for second in the MLB. He led the way with 60 homeruns, while finishing third in the league in RBIs with 125. He also added 14 stolen bases and finished with a .948 OPS. Rodriguez also dominated, finishing with a 6.8 WAR. He tallied 32 homeruns, with 95 RBIs, and 30 stolen bases. Randy Arozarena led the team with 31 stolen bases, and he also clubbed 27 homeruns. Jorge Polanco added another 26 homeruns, and his 78 RBIs were good for third on the team.

Bryan Woo climbed the ranks and emerged as the ace of the rotation. He finished with a 4.3 WAR after recording a 15-7 record, 21 quality starts, 198 strikeouts, and he finished with a rotation best 2.94 ERA. Logan Gilbert and George Kirby missed extended time with injuries. Gilbert was solid in his 25 starts after finishing with a 2.1 WAR and a 3.54 ERA. Kirby struggled posting a 4.21 ERA in 23 starts. Andres Munoz was elite out of the bullpen last season recording 38 saves, while posting a 1.73 ERA and recording a 12.0 K/9 ratio. Munoz was set up by the dominant combo of Gabe Speier and Matt Brash who combined to throw 109.1 innings and recorded a combined 2.51 ERA.

Key Additions/Losses

At season’s end, the Mariners watched relievers Caleb Ferguson and Luke Jackson hit the free agent market, while Eugenio Suarez and Mitch Garver also became free agents. After a strong season at the plate, Polanco declined his option to also become a free agent. The team also traded three strong prospects in a deal with St. Louis earlier this month.

As for the additions, the Mariners filled Polanco’s hole with Brendan Donovan. They also added rotation depth with the signing of Randy Dobnak, Gabe Mosser, and Dane Dunning. Seattle also added utility guys in Connor Joe, Patrick Wisdom, and Rob Refsnyder, as well as catcher Andrew Knizner, and relievers Michael Rucker and Josh Simpson.

Prospect Outlook

Despite the franchise being in a win now window, their farm system is still loaded. The Mariners farm system ranks seventh in the league, as they have five prospects ranked inside the MLB’s Top 100 Prospect rankings. Their highest rated prospect is shortstop Colt Emerson, who is expected to compete for a spot in the middle of the infield this season. Emerson is followed by Kade Anderson, who ranks 21st thanks to his strong slider. Pitcher Ryan Sloan finds himself ranked 33rd on the rankings, with outfielder Lazaro Montes coming in at 43rd, second baseman Michael Arroyo ranks 67th, and outfielder Jonny Farmelo rounds out the Mariners at 78th.

X-Factors

Cal Raleigh- One of the biggest variables in last season’s climb was the bat of Raleigh. He clubbed 60 homeruns and was a deserved MVP finalist. While he has averaged over 30 homeruns over his previous three seasons, he has come nowhere near 60 homeruns before in his career. He is one of the best bats in the MLB, but he needs to continue his elite performance.

Starting Rotation Health- Losing Kirby and Gilbert for an extended period of time did not help. They need to put together a full season of a complete starting five. If Kirby, Gilbert, Woo, Luis Castillo, and either Emerson Hancock or Bryce Miller can stay put and consistent, they will be the best rotation in American League. However, they have not been able to stay healthy at the same time. Kirby’s numbers were way down, but he also was limited to a career low 23 starts and he had a career worst strikeout to walk ratio (4.7), indicating a lingering injury. Gilbert saw his starts decline by eight last year and his 2.1 WAR was his worst since his rookie year. Kirby, Gilbert, Woo, Castillo, and even Miller have all shown potential in leading this rotation, but they need to stay healthy.  

2026 Seattle Mariners Notable Odds:

Win Total: 89.5

World Series Champions- +1300

Pennant Winners- +550

Division Winners- +110

AL MVP- Cal Raleigh +700

AL MVP- Julio Rodriguez +1400

AL MVP- Radny Arozarena +12500

NL MVP- Adley Rutschman +5500

AL Cy Young- Bryan Woo +1700

AL Cy Young- Logan Gilbert +2200

AL Cy Young- George Kirby +3500

AL Rookie of the Year- Colt Emerson +2500

2026 Seattle Mariners Predictions:

At +110, the Mariners are the favorites to win the AL West again, and they have the best roster to do so. Houston and Texas have improved, but the Mariners have yet to reach their full potential as a team due to lingering injuries in the pitching staff. They are the most complete team, on paper, and at +1300 they have a ton of value to win the World Series and take down the Dodgers, which is worth a flier. Gilbert at +2200 to win the AL Cy Young is also worth some couch change. He has the stuff to win a Cy Young if he can stay on the mound. Raleigh was arguably the most deserving MVP finalist last season, and he has proven to be one of the best bats in the MLB. At +700, there is a lot of value to like about him winning the MVP. In regard to the win total, expect Seattle to reach the 100-win mark this season. Don’t sleep on this beast in the north.

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