NBA Handicapping Articles

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, March 17, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 3/16/2018

The Detroit Pistons had an initial burst of success after trading for Blake Griffin, winning their first four games with him in the lineup. But they have fallen off a cliff since, putting Stan Van Gundy's future as president of basketball operations and/or head coach in jeopardy. Detroit is in Portland on Saturday halfway through a six-game trip through the West, and the team could be all but eliminated from the playoffs by the time it gets back home should the trip be disaster. The tandem of Griffin and Andre Drummond has been very good, but Detroit might have the worst backcourt in the East.

Handicapping the NBA Western Conference Playoff Race
by Trevor Whenham - 3/16/2018

The Oklahoma City Thunder currently sit fourth in the Western Conference of the NBA as we cruise towards the postseason. The Denver Nuggets sit 10th. Yet the gap between the teams is as tiny as we have seen in the West in a long while. We are used to the top teams running away with things in the conference, yet this year the difference between hosting a first-round series and staying home on your couch as the playoffs start is just 2.5 games.

Free NBA Picks: Friday, March 16, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 3/15/2018

The Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder are in action on Friday, and both have had success in hiring college head coaches - Brad Stevens and Billy Donovan, respectively. So, with the NCAA Tournament also going on, that got me thinking about which college coach might make the NBA jump this coming offseason. And I think the answer is crystal clear: Arizona's Sean Miller. Of course, we all know about that ESPN report of Miller reportedly talking about payment for one of his players. ESPN also has corrected that story twice, and now it doesn't seem so rock solid. But where there's smoke there's usually fire.

Free NBA Picks: Thursday, March 15, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 3/14/2018

With the NCAA Tournament starting in full Thursday, you can probably guess which schools currently have the most players on NBA rosters (stats from the beginning of the season so an occasional number could change slightly if a guy sent to the G-League or released, etc.). No. 1 is the first-round factory that John Calipari has built at Kentucky with 27 current NBA players. I'm sure a few more Wildcats will be first-rounders this summer, although likely none in the Top 10, which is rare under Calipari. Duke is second with 20 and has two 2018 lottery picks for sure in Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter Jr. (Gary Trent Jr. is likely a first-rounder if he comes out; and Grayson Allen might be.)

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, March 14, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 3/13/2018

OK, here we go: Tanking teams are starting to rule out starters due to convenient season-ending injuries. I'm not saying guys aren't hurt, but if their clubs were in the playoff chase I'm guessing things would be different. Atlanta and Dallas are both 100 percent in the tanking category, and the Hawks have said Kent Bazemore is done with a knee injury, while the Mavs are saying likely the same for Wesley Matthews with a leg issue. Bazemore is a useful player whom the Hawks tried to deal at the deadline and probably will again this offseason.

Free NBA Picks: Tuesday, March 13, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 3/12/2018

I had presumed that Golden State would eventually catch Houston for the best record in the West, but I'm not sure that Warriors now care all that much about landing the top seed. It's more important they get healthy and in sync before the postseason. The Dubs are on a rare two-game slide. Sunday in Minnesota, Steph Curry missed his second straight game because of an ankle injury. Andre Iguodala missed his third in a row because of a left wrist injury, David West a fourth consecutive because of an arm injury, and rookie Jordan Bell his third straight because of an ankle issue.

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, March 10, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 3/9/2018

Spurs-Thunder is the ABC Saturday prime-time game of the week on Saturday, but that's not the most interesting matchup of the weekend. No, that would be Cavaliers at Lakers, and it really has nothing to do with this year. Yes, it's Cleveland's first game vs. the Lakers since trading Isaiah Thomas, etc., to L.A. and landing Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance. That's a subplot to the fact that the next time LeBron takes the court at Staples Center, it could be as a member of the Lakers. It's no secret that James can become a free agent this summer, has two mansions in L.A. and wants to build an entertainment empire.

Free NBA Picks: Friday, March 9, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 3/8/2018

Why is Commissioner Adam Silver singling out the Chicago Bulls? Other teams have been tanking much more obviously this season, yet Silver recently warned the Bulls against tanking even though they have only the eighth-worst record. That came about because the front office coming out of the All-Star break announced that veterans Robin Lopez and Justin Holiday weren't going to be getting regular minutes going forward - if playing at all. Perhaps if the Bulls hadn't been so transparent about that, Silver wouldn't have found a need to warn the franchise.

Expert NBA Handicapping: San Antonio Spurs Struggles
by Trevor Whenham - 3/8/2018

What the heck is going on in San Antonio? The most boringly reliable franchise in all of sports is struggling and full of drama. They are free falling. If the playoffs started now they would not have home-court advantage in the first round, and they sit just 2.5 games out of ninth. They are only a game and a half out of third, so all is not yet lost, but they are certainly not playing like they are a threat to climb up the standings.

NBA Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 3/7/2018

Not many people would have guessed Toronto and Houston would have the best records in the NBA's Eastern and Western Conferences, respectively, in the month of March. Cleveland is in third place in the Eastern Conference, but they are only four games ahead of the eighth-place Miami Heat. The San Antonio Spurs have had a bunch of injury problems, and they have dropped to fifth in the Western Conference. The Spurs are only 2.5 games ahead of the Clippers, who are in ninth place and looking to fight their way into the playoffs.

Free NBA Picks: Thursday, March 8, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 3/7/2018

The Charlotte Hornets haven't done much right in recent years other than drafting Kemba Walker at No. 9 overall in 2011. The next year, they lost out on the draft lottery despite by far the worst record in the NBA and had to settle for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist instead of Anthony Davis. In 2013, they took Cody Zeller at No. 4 overall. It was Noah Vonleh at No. 9 in 2014, Frank Kaminsky at No. 9 in 2015, Malachi Richardson at No. 22 in 2016 and Malik Monk at No. 11 this past season - when the Hornets could have had Donovan Mitchell or even Bam Adebayo, Jarrett Allen or Kyle Kuzma. No wonder this franchise is looking for a new general manager (Former Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak remains a front-runner to receive an offer to replace Rich Cho.).

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, March 7, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 3/6/2018

The Lakers have been a pleasant surprise for weeks, but they might be a decent fade candidate the rest of this week. That's because emerging second-year star Brandon Ingram is dealing with a left groin strain and won't even be re-evaluated for week. Want more proof that positions largely don't matter in the modern-day NBA? Ingram is in reality a small forward, but last month while starting at point guard for an injured Lonzo Ball (sprained left MCL; he's back now), Ingram averaged 18.6 points, 5.6 assists, 5.2 rebounds and 1.1 blocks while shooting 54.5 percent from the field.

NBA Totals Betting and Handicapping: Top Over and Under Teams this Season
by Trevor Whenham - 3/6/2018

When it comes to betting NBA totals, the enemy of bettors is a moderate team. Teams that perform pretty close to expectations consistently are no good for bettors. They are break-even teams, and bettors hate break-even teams. The nice things about totals, though, is that there are two ways for teams to be successful, and both ways work just fine for bettors. A team can go "over" totals in bulk or rarely go over them, and the profits are both just as sweet.

2018 NBA Championship Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 3/6/2018

It tells you a lot about the state of the NBA right now when the race for last place in the league - and all off the ping pong balls that comes with that - seems far more hotly contested than the race for the NBA title. We have seen a real consolidation of power in the league the last couple of years, but it still doesn't feel like things are particularly more competitive than they have been for three years.

Free NBA Picks: Tuesday, March 6, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 3/5/2018

Unless Celtics coach Brad Stevens is outright lying to the media, Boston will not get back big free-agent acquisition Gordon Hayward this season. Of course, the former Utah Jazz All-Star swingman gruesomely broke his ankle on opening night. Hayward has been working out, sparking speculation he could return near the end of the regular season, but Stevens over the weekend said: "He's not playing this year. I don't know what else to say."

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, March 3, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 3/2/2018

You have to like the Houston Rockets' confidence. A while back, young center Clint Capela said his team was better than the Golden State Warriors following a victory over the Dubs. But, Capela perhaps didn't know any better at age 23. James Harden, though, has been around the block. He's not backing down from any challenge, either, saying this week that: "This is the year. For sure," when asked what his expectations for the Rockets are for this season. "This is probably the best team I've ever been a part of, from top to bottom."

Free NBA Picks: Friday, March 2, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 3/1/2018

Don't sleep on the Denver Nuggets going forward. They already have a really talented roster, but perhaps not an alpha male. That group got better Tuesday when former Atlanta Hawks All-Star forward Paul Millsap, Denver's big offseason acquisition, returned earlier than expected from wrist surgery. He had nine points and seven rebounds in 23 minutes off the bench in his first action since Nov. 19 as Millsap works into game shape.

Free NBA Picks: Thursday, March 1, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 2/28/2018

Another day, another piece of news regarding Spurs star Kawhi Leonard. Not long ago, Gregg Popovich stated publicly that he wasn't planning on Leonard returning this season. Maybe Pop doing such an unusual public proclamation was meant to spur Leonard into action. Appears to have worked if so. Leonard was at the Spurs practice facility for their team practice on Tuesday, but he did not participate. He had spent the previous three weeks in New York seeking further consultation on a right quad injury that has sidelined him for most of the season.

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 2/27/2018

Wednesday is a fairly important day in the NBA because it's the last day that teams can add players to where the new addition is eligible for the postseason. So, guys who aren't happy - Minnesota's Shabazz Muhammad comes to mind immediately - will no doubt have their agents negotiating buyouts in order to land with a contender (fairly big names such as Greg Monroe and Joe Johnson are among players who already got buyouts and signed with new teams). For example, once Ersan Ilyasova's buyout is completed with Atlanta, he's expected to sign a deal with Philadelphia.

Free NBA Picks: Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 2/26/2018

Could be tough for the Minnesota Timberwolves to finish third or fourth in the Western Conference and earn home-court advantage in a first-round playoff series now that All-Star guard Jimmy Butler is going to miss 4-6 weeks following surgery Sunday on his injured meniscus. Butler suffered the noncontact injury in the third quarter of the Timberwolves' loss in Houston (at least it wasn't an ACL) on Friday. Seems especially cruel for Butler because he decided not to play in the All-Star Game so he could get more rest. Any Chicago Bulls fan can tell you that former coach Tom Thibodeau, now leading the Wolves, plays his top guys a little too much. Butler is second in the NBA in averaging 37.1 minutes per game.