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2023 Alternate Super Bowl Lines can Maximize Betting Profits

by Spencer Toth - 2/6/2023

Capitalizing on the posted lines at -110 odds is a great way to churn a profit in sports betting, but sometimes there are instances where adjusting the line to your liking can create more efficient betting opportunities. As sports betting becomes more widespread across the country, it is easier and easier to find, and bet on, the standard lines in the NFL. The broadcast will talk about it, the advertisements will be about it, and you really can’t miss it. One thing that isn’t widely advertised is the fact that there are many different lines and odds to choose from.

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Alternate Super Bowl lines Trent McDuffie Kansas City Chiefs

For example, instead of a 5-Unit bet to win 4.5 Units at -110 odds on… let's say, the Eagles (-1.5), you can adjust the line to (-3.5) at +125 odds, and now you only have to wager 3.8 units to win the same 4.5 Units. While saving 1.2 Units on a single occurrence is nothing to celebrate, the minute differences in lines and odds can be a real difference-maker.

Sticking with the Eagles, on most books you can bet anything from Eagles (+18.5) at -1800 odds to Eagles (-21.5) at +1250 odds. Of course, it’s unlikely the winning margin will be 3 scores for either team. However, if you’re feeling especially daring, you can skip the same game parlays and get a parlay-like payout with a single bet. In reality, there are much more reasonable ways to attack the game. If you think Jalen Hurts and the Eagle’s dynamic offense will be able to take advantage of the Kansas City Chiefs weak secondary, betting the Eagles at -3.5 at +125 odds or even -6.5 at +180 odds can be a great way to make some extra dollars.

The difference between -110 and +125 may not seem like much, as a $100 ticket would pay $225 instead of $191, but in the long run it drastically changes your breakeven point. At -110 odds, a sports bettor has to win 52.4% of their bets to break even, but at +125 odds, they have to win just 44.4% of the wagers placed.

In the same nature, you can increase the underdog's odds even higher with alternative line betting. The Chiefs are +105 on the moneyline. However, if that payout doesn’t satisfy you, they are +160 if you lay 3.5 points, +280 if you lay 7.5, and if you think Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will win by 2 touchdowns, you can grab a tantalizing +600 line at -14. There is always a possibility this game could get out of hand, as if either quarterback's nagging injuries resurface, we could be in store for a blowout. The Chiefs won 5 games this season by 14 or more points, and they have shown the ability to knock teams out of the park.

Based on the lines, everyone is expecting a close game, but that may not be the case. This season, just 8 of the Eagles 19 games finished within one score, implying Eagles (-8.5) at +250 odds may hold some significant value. If you think the Eagles will win by more than one score at least 29% of the time, skip the -1.5 point spread all together and go for glory.

Just as you can increase the odds by selling points, you can buy points from the sportsbook if you’re satisfied with a reduced price. Phrases such as “buying the hook” are very common in the sports betting world. And bettors that are afraid of losing by a single point or even a half point, will drop down their odds in an attempt to avoid a bad beat. Personally, I do not recommend buying points as your win rate has to skyrocket with the extra insurance. The Chiefs are available at +1.5 at -110 odds, but many bettors will opt for a +3.5 line at -175 odds in case the Eagles win by a single field goal. While sitting back and watching the game with those points in the back pocket is nice, it will cost you in the long run. The aforementioned breakeven point of 52.4% at -110 odds shoots up to 63.6% at -175 odds, dramatically reducing profits. If you’re not confident on the Chiefs at +1.5, I’d recommend avoiding any plus point spreads and looking elsewhere for value. Buying points won’t save bad bets, and increasing your odds will always pay dividends in the long run.

The alternative line market can be a very fun and rewarding market to dive into. Instead of increasing the unit size on a confident bet, increasing the odds while keeping your wager consistent will still pay out increased profits. It will hurt if the team you bet on covers the posted spread, and not your alternate one, but that’s just a risk you have to be willing to take. I don’t know about you, but needing to win only 40% of bets to churn a profit is a pretty tantalizing offer.

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