Betting on the Super Bowl Coin Toss 2022
I think it is pretty obvious what the best bet in this year’s Super Bowl is. This wager is pretty much a lock and is one of the easiest bets you should make – in any sport – this year. It’s pretty much guaranteed profit for anyone smart enough and bold enough to play it.
The wager: the Super Bowl coin toss.
And the winning side for this year’s Super Bowl coin toss is so obvious it is almost laughable.
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The Cincinnati Bengals will take on the Los Angeles Rams at 6:30 p.m. on Sunday, Feb. 13 in Super Bowl LVI. The Rams are currently posted as a 4.5-point favorite, and the total is set at 48.5.
It is estimated that between $5-$8 billion dollars will be bet on this year’s Super Bowl. Between 25 and 35 percent of that money will be bet on prop bets, as opposed to the side and the total. And the most popular prop bet of the hundreds that will be posted is the Super Bowl coin toss.
The beauty of this bet is its simplicity. You may not understand a thing about zone blitzing schemes or trap blocking. But by God you understand “heads or tails”. There are no complicated algorithms or sophisticated handicapping strategies involved. It’s a coin. They toss it. It lands heads up or tails up. Simple.
Analytics has been one of the primary themes and noteworthy buzzwords of this year’s NFL season. The integration of data-driven strategies and math model affected game management has altered the nature of the sport. For coaches like Brandon Staley, these numbers can be used to justify going for it on 4th-and-1 from his own 18-yard line in the second half of a three-point game. For other coaches, like Mike McCarthy, NFL analytics can be used to justify the fact that McCarthy has no idea what he’s doing.
Either way, the NFL is now all about analytics. The Super Bowl coin toss is not exempt. The analytics suggest that the coin toss is a 50-50 proposition. Considering that the sportsbooks are charging a 10-20 percent vigorish on any wager of heads or tails, this bet would seem to make little mathematical sense for bettors because you have to bet $110 or $120 to win $100.
However, it is pretty easy to beat the “math nerds” and the “numbers crunching geeks” on this one. Because the coin toss actually isn’t a 50-50 proposition. It is either going to land on heads or it is going to land on tails. That means that one of those sides will go 1-for-1 on Super Sunday, making one of them a 100% proposition!
The math is clearly on our side with this bet. So now we need to sprinkle in a little strategy and you will understand why the winning side is obvious.
In the 55-year history of the Super Bowl coin toss, heads has hit 26 times while tails has come through 29 times. Heads came up in last year’s Super Bowl LV between Kansas City and Tampa Bay. That followed a dominating stretch of six of seven wins for tails, which also followed the “Heads Dynasty” of 2009-2013 when heads came through five years in a row!
Over the last 12 years, betting on the same result as the previous year has gone 8-4. That’s a 67 percent betting angle. Over the last 40 years, that angle has gone 21-19.
That said, just because heads hit last year that doesn’t mean that it will pull off back-to-back Super Bowl victories. In fact, over the last 28 years, betting on the opposite result of the previous year has led to the winning coin toss call 14 times.
We now have a guaranteed winner this year with the coin toss. Despite that, don’t get suckered into trying to parlay this wager. Because Super Bowl coin toss betting is so popular sportsbooks have diversified its wagering options. Now you can bet on which team will win the coin toss or you can do a parlay wager that includes picking whether or not the team that wins the coin toss also wins the game.
Again, don’t get distracted. Let’s just keep our focus on the obvious choice for this year’s game.
Finally, the best thing about this bet is that it is over quickly. You don’t have to endure three-and-a-half hours of actual football, entertainment, commercials and analysis. Nope. Show up at 6:30. By 6:35 the toss will be done and we will be cashing our winning ticket.
Don’t be shy about sharing this winning pick with your friends and family. You know what the winning play on this year’s Super Bowl coin toss is, so it is kind of selfish to keep it to yourself. Let everyone at your Super Bowl party know the winning wager and then sit back and enjoy everyone cashing in at the start of the game.
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Robert Ferringo is a member of the Pro Football Writers Association and has been one of the best football handicappers in the country. Robert has posted 13 of 15 winning Super Bowls and for a full decade from 2010-2019 he banked over +$40,000 in football profit. Robert is looking forward to another Super Bowl score and you can take advantage of his selections exclusively at Doc’s Sports.
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