Betting on the Super Bowl Coin Toss 2023

by Spencer Toth - 1/31/2023

Betting the Super Bowl coin toss Kansas City Chiefs

The world of professional sports offers a plethora of betting opportunities, but there is no day as big as the Super Bowl. From die hard NFL fans watching whistle to whistle, to mothers tuning in for the halftime show, the Super Bowl captures the attention of the nation, and it all starts with a flip of a coin.

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The coin toss is one of the most bet on props of the year, and the simple beauty of it makes it one of the most fun. While a cross route with a quarterback run option may not make sense to a majority of people, everyone knows what a coin toss is. This bet may be the first bet many gamblers ever made, and even the casual fans can choose a side for this one.

The Philadelphia Eagles take on the Kansas City Chiefs on February 12 at 6:30 p.m. EST, and the coin toss bet will be over by 6:35. There is no need to sit through almost 4 hours of football sweating a bet when you can double your money before a ball is kicked.

The bet is simple: Heads or Tails? There is no secret formula on the flip of a coin, as both sides are an even 50/50. Most books will still take a cut on the toss, ensuring they remain in the green regardless of the outcome. This will not deter the millions who will bet on the toss, and the amount of money changing hands in a little under 2 seconds is ludacris. It’s estimated that over 7 billion dollars will be wagered on the Super Bowl, easily sailing over last year's mark, with the coin toss being one of the most popular.

Over the past decade and a half, the toss has been very streaky. Tails prevailed in 2008, before Heads dominated the opening ceremonies, winning 5 straight years from 2009-2013. The Heads superiority was bound to come to an end, and Tails took over, winning the next 4 tosses, including a gutsy back-to-back Tails victory for the Seahawks. Fast forward to 2021, and Heads is looking to recreate the late 2000’s dominance. Heads has emerged victorious in each of the last 2 Super Bowls and will be looking to make it 3 straight this year in Glendale, Arizona.

Overall, the score is perfectly level, with both sides winning the toss 28 times. Whether it will be heads or tails that pulls ahead at Super Bowl LVII is yet to be determined, but a more startling trend has emerged.

The 2014 Seattle Seahawks were the last team to win the coin toss before hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. The last 8 coin toss victors ended up losing the game, which had just a 0.39% chance of occurring. The ‘Coin Toss Curse’ has never been this strong, but that doesn’t mean you should be instantly fading the coin toss loser, as every streak will eventually be broken.

Which way should you go in Glendale? It all depends on the party you are at. If you plan on watching in a large group, I would advise jumping on the ‘Tails Never Fails’ train. There are few things more satisfying than cashing a group bet on a coin toss and ensuring a profit before the game kicks off. Dozens of people crowded around the TV, chanting ‘Tails Never Fails’ before the room goes silent in anticipation. Suddenly the room erupts in celebration and creates a spectacle as grand as the Super Bowl itself.

However, If you are an intellectual like myself, I will be riding the Heads train for one more year. ‘If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ is a saying that applies to this situation. Heads has hit the past 2 Super Bowls, and I’ll be expecting a similar outcome on Sunday. While the intoxicated crowds are chanting a catchphrase over a coin, you sit quietly waiting for the outcome. A Heads result that not only silences the crowds but puts money in your pocket is a tangible victory to start the Super Bowl off.

Just to let you know, this analysis is tongue in cheek. The odds for the coin toss don’t reflect the 50% outcome of the result, as the odds are often listed at -115 for each side of the coin. So this is a sucker bet and a sure winner for the sportsbooks. Don’t fall into this trap as there are many other prop bets with excellent betting value.

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Betting on the Super Bowl Coin Toss 2023

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