2011 Breeders Cup Longshots
by Trevor Whenham - 11/2/2011
The Breeders’ Cup is a great event for bettors who love longshots. There are so many races to choose from, and each one is full of top-level talent. Therefore there are almost certain to be some winners that pay off at big prices.
In our continuing hunt for Breeders’ Cup longshots here are six horses that are interesting and which should each pay at least $20 if they win. Just one win like that will put your bankroll in decent shape for the day.
Dayatthespa, Juvenile Fillies Turf (12/1)
This filly ran second in the Natalma last time out. Last year More Than Real was second in that race before winning this one. That was a very nicely run race, and showed more maturity than you might expect from a filly at this stage of development. The horse she beat by two lengths in that race, Stephanie’s Kitten, came back to win her next race handily.
She is trained by Chad Brown. He already has a win in the short history of this race, so he knows what it takes to get a runner ready. He’s had a strong year so far, and this would be a good way to cap it.
European shipper Elusive Kate will draw a huge portion of the money in this one. I’m skeptical of that horse at the price she will go off at, so I am happy to look to beat her, and Dayatthespa is the best value option.
Fantastic Song, Juvenile Turf (20/1)
This race is a wide-open mess, so it is a perfect spot to find a longshot.
This is the fifth edition of this race. In the first four closers or deep stalkers have been able to bide their time and pounce late. This year, though, pretty much every horse will be looking to come off the pace, so the pace scenario could be ridiculous.
I happened to be watching the races at Saratoga on Aug. 20 when this horse broke his maiden. He was very impressive — eye-opening. I knew as soon as I saw him that we’d see him somewhere on the Breeders’ Cup card, and I knew chances were pretty good I’d bet on him, too.
He has only run once since, and was third on less than ideal turf against a good field. He has trained well, has obvious talent, and is going to keep moving forward with experience.
Tapizar, Dirt Mile (20/1)
This horse is younger and less experienced than typical winners of this race — the three year old has raced only three times this year. He has a good excuse, though — he was injured.
He’s come back strong from that setback, though, and is training well.
In his last race he looked like he had never missed a second as he ran away from the field.
I really liked this horse earlier in the year when he was on the Triple Crown trail, so I am excited to see him back. I’d bet him at well below this price, so I’m happy with this price.
Dean’s Kitten, Turf (10/1)
The Turf is typically a race that is won by European horses. In seven Breeders’ Cups at Churchill Downs there have been five European winners. That means that two domestic runners have come out on top, though.
It makes sense to look towards Dean’s Kitten, then, since he’s clearly the best domestic runner in my eyes.
He likes to stalk the pace, and there isn’t a lot of pace here to burn him out, so he should have some gas left in the tank later on.
There are four good Europeans in here so he might not be good enough to win, but he’s tough and should hang on for a piece.
Hansen, Juvenile (10/1)
I really, really hate synthetic surfaces, so it is rare that I look towards a synthetic specialist running on dirt for the first time. I’m not that impressed by this field, though, so Hansen stands out as a possibility.
He has been very impressive in two wins at Turfway, and has worked reasonably well on dirt since.
His breeding certainly doesn’t rule out dirt, and the pace sets up well for him — he likes the lead and should be able to find it.
Union Rags is going to be bet down very hard in this race. I’m definitely looking to beat him, and this is a very interesting option.
Strong Suit, Mile (10/1)
Goldikova is the most remarkable story on this card. She has won the Mile three years in a row, and is back as the solid favorite to do so again.
She seems to have lost a step, though, and she’ll be bet down hard enough to rid her of any value she might have.
My heart will be pulling for her, but my head says it is time to beat her.
Strong Suit is a three year old European import who has been improving significantly as the year goes along and is now putting up numbers that are historically competitive in this field. A lot of Europeans that come over for this race are distance specialists that are shortening up for this race, but Strong Suit is primarily a sprinter. I like that for the mile distance.
Doc’s Sports has been handicapping all the major horse races since the early 1970s and they will offer their 2011 Breeders Cup picks on Friday, Nov. 4 and $25 gets you a full slate of action on Saturday with picks from eight races, including the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Click Here to purchase.
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