2025 Chicago Cubs Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/10/2025

Last season was not great for the Chicago Cubs. They finished with a 83-79 record, which was six games worse than their expected record of 89-73. The Cubs had a losing record in one-run games and finished with a losing record on the road. The Cubs were six games out of the final wild card spot and 10 games out of first place in the NL Central. Despite finishing just four games over .500, the Cubs had a +67-run differential on the year.

Dansby Swanson led the team with a 4.0 WAR after he hit 16 homeruns and recorded 66 RBIs. Ian Happ led the team with 25 homeruns and 86 RBIs while finishing second with a 3.9 WAR. Nico Hoerner led the team in hits (159), stolen bases (31) and doubles (35) while recording a 3.7 WAR. Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch were the only other members of the Cubs to reach the 20-homerun mark, with both hitters clubbing 21 homeruns. Suzuki finished with a 3.5 WAR, while Busch finished with a 2.8 mark. As a team, the Cubs ranked 12th in runs, 20th in homeruns, 13th in OPS, and eighth in stolen bases.

The Cubs pitching staff was in the middle of the pack, like their lineup. They finished 10th in ERA, 15th in WHIP, and 15th in homeruns allowed. The Cubs had one of the most consistent rotations in the league, as all five of their starters recorded at least 24 starts and 130 innings. Shota Imanaga emerged on the scene for the Cubs, as he led the team with a 3.1 WAR, a 2.91 ERA, and a 1.02 WHIP. He also led the team with 174 strikeouts over 173.1 innings and recorded 19 quality starts, finishing with a 15-3 record. Jameson Taillon had a decent year as well, finishing second on the team with a 2.2 WAR, while recording a 3.27 ERA across 165.1 innings. Justin Steele was dominant when healthy, as he finished with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP last season. Reliever Porter Hodge emerged as the team’s best reliever, as he posted a 1.88 ERA and a bullpen best 1.3 WAR across 43 innings of work.

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Chicago Cubs Key Additions/Losses

At the end of the season, pitchers Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, Colten Brewer, Yency Almonte, Enoli Paredes and Jorge Lopez hit the free agent market, while catcher Christian Bethancourt was outrighted to the minors and chose free agency. Pitchers Trey Wingenter and Adbert Alzolay, as well as infielders Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal and outfielders Brennen Davis and Mike Tauchman, were all non-tendered. The Cubs also traded Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith, and Hayden Wesneski to the Houston Astros, while also sending Cody Bellinger to the New York Yankees.

The Cubs acquired Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly from the Astros, reliever Ryan Brasier from the Los Angeles Dodgers, while acquiring Cody Poteet in the Bellinger deal. They signed Matthew Boyd and Carson Kelly to two-year deals while boosting the pitching staff by signing Caleb Thielbar, Ben Heller, Colin Rea, Trevor Richards, Brad Keller, and Chris Flexen. They also signed outfielder Travis Jankowski, infielder Justin Turner, utilityman Jon Berti, and infielder Nicky Lopez.

Chicago Cubs Prospect Outlook

Chicago’s farm system ranks 10th in the league, and they have seven players ranked inside the MLB’s Top 100 Prospect Rankings; all may have an impact at the big-league level. Infielder Matt Shaw is the top prospect internally and the 19th ranked overall prospect. Following Shaw is right-handed pitcher Cade Horton, who is the top pitching prospect in the Cubs system and the 51st ranked prospect overall. Outfielder Own Caissie (53rd), catcher Moises Ballesteros (68th), second baseman James Triantos (72nd), outfielder Kevin Alcantara (89th), and middle infielder Jefferson Rojas (96th) round out the list of the Cubs Top 100 prospects.

Chicago Cubs X-Factors

Justin Steele- Steele isn’t far removed from his Cy Young caliber season. In 2023, Steele finished 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA while striking out 176 batters across 173.1 innings. Last season, Steele made only 24 starts. And while he posted a 3.07 ERA, he recorded 40 innings less than his 2023 campaign. Steele has lost the attention he deserves and is a perfect dark horse candidate, not only for Cy Young, but a dark horse candidate to elevate the Cubs from good to great. He is penciled in behind Imanaga and Taillon in the rotation despite having the makeup to be their ace. If he can stay healthy, the Cubs rotation might be one of the more underrated units in the league.

The Lineup- Adding Kyle Tucker was huge for the Cubs, and he should more than replace Bellinger in the lineup. Tucker was on pace to have a career year and possibly an MVP winning year before his injury. He continues to be one of the most underappreciated names in baseball and is one of the best pure hitters in the MLB. Tucker adds the power and speed element to this Cubs lineup that desperately needed a boost. Outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is a breakout candidate, while Swanson, Suzuki, and Happ continue to be a consistent veteran presence. Their lineup is improved from last season, but they still need more.

Chicago Cubs Expectations

The expectations around the league are for the Chicago Cubs to take over the Brewers for the top spot in the NL Central. Though Milwaukee should remain competitive, the Cubs finally have a playoff worthy roster and should win 90 or so games this season. The NL Central is improving but is still among the easiest divisions in baseball, and the Cubs should run the table despite being a step behind the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and Mets. The rotation is underrated, with some solid depth, and the lineup looks a lot better with Tucker’s name in it. The farm system is loaded with some MLB-ready talent that could benefit the Cubs whether through depth or as trade bait, as they should be in the market for another bat and a shutdown closer. Nonetheless, this is the best Cubs roster we have seen since they won their last title.

Chicago Cubs Notable Odds:

Win Total: 87.5

World Series Champions- +3000

Pennant Winners- +1500

Division Winners- -105

NL MVP- Kyle Tucker +1400

NL MVP- Seiya Suzuki +12000

NL Cy Young- Justin Steele +3500

NL Cy Young- Shota Imanaga +4000

NL Rookie of the Year- Matt Shaw +400

2025 Chicago Cubs Predictions

As mentioned, the Cubs are still a whole tier behind the Dodgers and the NL East trio, but they should make it to the playoffs as the NL Central winner. They may share a similar fate as last year’s Brewers, facing a first-round exit from a lower seeded team, but they should reach the playoffs this season. Steele at +3500 to win the NL Cy Young is worth a look considering he was in the conversation just two seasons ago. If he can stay healthy and lower the number of homeruns he gives up, he could find himself right back in the conversation with the league’s best. Tucker at +1400 to win the NL MVP is another solid value pick. He would have won it last year, at the pace he was performing, but an injury ended his season early. He does find himself in the same league with Shohei Ohtani, but it is still worth a look. As for the win total, the Chicago Cubs will benefit from their weaker division and a deep pitching staff. I expect the Cubs to exceed the 90-win mark, making the over on this win total a solid pick.

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Start:	May 21, 2025 @ 10:00 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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2025 Chicago Cubs Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

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