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Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros Weekend Series Predictions with Odds and Analysis

by Ryan Cobbett - 6/27/2025

Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros series predictions Pete Crow-Armstrong

With the All-Star Break just over two weeks away and half the schedules behind us, we now have a solid idea of who the contenders and pretenders are. Teams like the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants have seemingly graduated from pretenders to real contenders, while the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles have had a mighty collapse this season and have been officially demoted to pretenders. This weekend there is an incredible interleague set between two teams who are not only in the playoff picture but could also be legit World Series contenders as well. This weekend the Chicago Cubs are traveling to Houston to take on an Astros team who is defying expectations and leading the AL West.

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Where They Stand

The Chicago Cubs are headed down to Houston this weekend after winning each of their last two games in St. Louis in back-to-back shutout performances. The Cubs now have a three-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central and currently have the second-best record in the NL. Their +100-run differential is the best in the NL and second best in the MLB behind only the New York Yankees. It has been the offense that has elevated Chicago to new heights this season. The acquisition of Kyle Tucker and the promotion of Pete Crow-Armstrong has boosted this Cubs lineup into one of the best in the league. They are second in the MLB in runs, third in homeruns, third in stolen bases, and fourth in OPS. Crow-Armstrong leads the team with a 4.5 WAR which also ranks third in the MLB. He has already joined the 20/20 club in his first 80 MLB games as he has 21 homeruns and 24 stolen bases on the year. Tucker is nearing the same club as he has 16 homeruns and 19 stolen bases on the year while posting a 3.4 WAR. Beyond their two new stars, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner, and Dansby Swanson have produced at a high level this season. Hoerner leads the team with 87 hits while having a 3.2 WAR. Suzuki and Swanson have clubbed a combined 35 homeruns while tallying 106 RBIs and combining for a 3.5 WAR. The pitching hasn’t been there thanks to the injury of Justin Steele. However, Shota Imanaga is joined by Matthew Boyd as a solid shutdown duo atop the Cubs rotation.

As for the Astros, most people around the league saw the Seattle Mariners as the top team in the AL West. However, the Astros have continued to be one of the hottest teams in baseball. They have won 17 of their last 23 games and are currently riding a four-game winning streak. They swept the Philadelphia Phillies in a three-game set and held the Phillies to just one run in the series. Unlike the Cubs, it isn’t the Astros lineup that has them here. In fact, Houston ranks just 19th in runs scored this season. Their pitching staff ranks third in the MLB in ERA and is tied atop the league in WHIP. Hunter Brown has proven to be an ace in this rotation as he has a 1.74 ERA through 98 innings while posting 12 quality starts this season. Framber Valdez has also pitched well this season as he has a 2.88 ERA through 103 innings. It doesn’t help that Ronel Blanco, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia are all on the IL, but McCullers may be back this weekend which could elevate this pitching staff. Outside of the rotation, the bullpen has also been incredible. Houston’s bullpen has the second lowest ERA in the league. Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader have been elite this season. Abreu has a 1.72 ERA through 36.2 innings while Hader has a 1.73 ERA through 36.1 innings of work this season. The lineup is missing Yordan Alvarez, but Jeremy Pena has reemerged as a solid bat as he leads the team with a 4.7 WAR as he is hitting .324 and has 11 homeruns and 15 stolen bases.

Team Betting Notes:

Chicago Cubs:

  • The Chicago Cubs are 40-41 ATS this season, but they are 22-19 ATS on the road.
  • The Cubs have seen the over hit in 41 of their 81 games this season, but they have hit the over in less than half of their road games.
  • Chicago leads the MLB in runs scored on the road this season as they are averaging 5.8 runs per game away from home.

Houston Astros:

  • The Houston Astros are 41-40 ATS this season, and they are just 22-21 ATS at home.
  • The Astros have seen the south side of the game total in 46 of their 81 games this season and in nearly 63% of their home games.
  • Houston’s pitching staff ranks sixth in the MLB in home ERA (3.18) this season.

Player Highlights:

Chicago Cubs:

  • Suzuki has three homeruns and six RBIs in his last five games while also reaching base in all five straight games.
  • After hitting .293 in May, Swanson is hitting just .233 in June, and he has just one homerun over his last nine games.
  • Hoerner has reached base in 12 straight games, and he is currently on a five-game hitting streak.

Houston Astros:

  • Pena is 5/16 over his last four games, striking out just once. He has hit .368 in the month of June.
  • Jose Altuve has struggled over his last three games as he is just 1/10 and has struck out five times.
  • Christian Walker has failed to live up to Astros fans expectations as he has just three homeruns over his last 84 at-bats while striking out over 25% of the time.

Game 1 Preview – Cade Horton (3-1, 3.73 ERA) vs. Brandon Walter (0-1, 3.80 ERA)

Game 1 Analysis: Cade Horton and Brandon Walter are new to the big leagues and have not had a lot of chances against their opponent. However, the Astros lineup has been particularly bad against right-handed pitchers this season. They rank 21st in OPS against righties while accumulating just 63 homeruns in 2,262 at-bats this season. As for the Cubs, they are third in the MLB in homeruns off of left-handed pitchers and they rank sixth in OPS against southpaws. With their explosive lineup and their solid performance both on the road and against lefties, it is hard to bet against the Cubs here. Take the Cubs and the over and expect a lot of runs to be scored in this series.

My Pick: Chicago Cubs to Win -105, Over 8.5 -115

Game 2 – Colin Rea (4-3, 4.42 ERA) vs. Ryan Gusto (5-3, 4.62 ERA)

Game 3 – Jameson Taillon (7-5, 4.47 ERA) vs. Framber Valdez (8-4, 2.88 ERA)

Series Picks: The remainder of the series could go either way and there should be a lot of runs scored this weekend. The pitching matchup in the second game of the series is awful, but that gives the edge to the Cubs as their lineup has produced on a much higher level than Houston’s this season. The final game of the series may be the only one Houston wins this weekend thanks to the favorable pitching matchup. Expect the Cubs to keep the winning streak alive into Sunday and win the series on the road.

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