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2021 Chicago White Sox Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series

by Chris Vasile - 3/31/2021

jose abreu chicago white sox

Since winning the World Series in 2005, the Chicago White Sox have been an afterthought in the American League East. Since 2006, the White Sox have just one division title to their name and have made the playoffs a whopping two times – in 2008, and in last year’s COVID-shortened season. To say they’ve been a disappointment despite having excellent hitters and a collection of great pitchers would be an understatement.

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Last season, the White Sox finished with a record of 35-25, which was good enough for third in the AL Central and one of the wild-card spots in the expanded playoffs. They promptly fell to the Athletics in three games despite having the MVP, Jose Abreu, in their lineup. Maybe this year will be the year of the Pale Hose, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

The White Sox will open the regular season on April 1 with a six-game West Coast trip that will see them stop in for four games against the Los Angeles Angels before heading north to Seattle for three with the Mariners. From there, they return home for three with the Royals before welcoming the Indians for four. The White Sox come into this season as World Series contenders as they check in at +1000, which is fourth favorite. They are +375 to win the AL Pennant and -115 to win the AL Central. Their win total has been set at 91.5

White Sox 2021 Projected Lineup

One quick look at the White Sox batting order and you’ll quickly see why they are projected to make the postseason and quite possibly make some noise once they are there. Their projected lineup for opening day looks like this:

  1. Tim Anderson
  2. Yasmani Grandal
  3. Jose Abreu
  4. Yoan Moncada
  5. Luis Robert
  6. Adam Eaton
  7. Andrew Vaughn
  8. Zack Collins
  9. Nick Madrigal

The White Sox are going to need to score a lot of runs if they want to keep pace with the Twins in the AL Central and have a shot at the division. Thankfully, they have a lineup that is projected to do just that, and it all starts with the reigning MVP, Abreu.

Abreu is coming off a season in which he had 19 homeruns and hit for a .319 average. He was the catalyst the White Sox have been looking for. The projections for Abreu have him once again leading the team in homeruns with 33 and coming in second in batting average at .277.

The good thing for Abreu and White Sox fans is that he should have plenty of support this season. The projections for the rest of the batting order have eight out of nine guys reaching the double-digit homerun mark. Anderson is slated for 24, Grandal (25), Moncada (24), Robert (31), Eaton (13), Vaughn (15) and Collins (10). 

For a few of the guys, those numbers would be career highs. Therefore, if the White Sox are banking on guys like Vaughn, Collins and Madrigal busting out and having a great season, it’s going to be a very intense 162-game season for them.

White Sox 2021 Projected Rotation & Closer

The White Sox pitching staff will be the biggest question mark for this season. They are trotting out the same five guys from last year’s team, and it’ll be interesting to see if they can duplicate the success they had from last season.

Dallas Kuechel has an excellent first year with the Sox, pitching to a 6-2 record in 11 starts, with a 1.99 ERA. If it wasn’t for up-and-coming stud, Lucas Giolito, he’d be the undoubted ‘ace’ of the staff. Nonetheless, it’ll be up to him to continue the winning streaks or stop the bleeding should it come to that.

As for Giolito, he’s coming off a season in which he won just four games in 12 starts (three losses) and his ERA was a respectable 4.38. The year prior, Giolito started 29 games and pitched to a 14-9 record with a 3.41 ERA. If he can replicate that form, the White Sox will have a lethal one-two punch at the front end of the rotation.

Beyond them, Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodon are all pitchers looking to assert themselves as reliable big-league pitchers. Lynn had the best season of the trio last year in terms of ERA as he checked in at 3.32, while Cease and Rodon were at 4.01 and 8.22, respectively. The backend of the rotation scares me as it’s the possible weak link of the team.

As for the bullpen, newly acquired Liam Hendriks will be given the ball in closing situations, and he’s projected to close around 30 games for the team. His setup men will be Aaron Bummer and Evan Marshall.

White Sox 2021 Predictions

FanGraphs projects the White Sox to finish with a record of 85-77, which would put them second in the AL Central, and that record would be good enough for a wild-card spot. I find it interesting how big the discrepancy between FanGraphs projections and Vegas odds are. I believe the White Sox are a good team, but the Twins are better. Given the high win total and the odds, I’d go under the season win total for the White Sox.

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