2021 Colorado Rockies Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series
It seems like just yesterday we were watching the Colorado Rockies win 14 of their last 15 games to secure a wild card spot and eventually play themselves into the 2007 World Series. Since that crazy run, they’ve made the playoffs just three times and have just one playoff round win, and that was in the 2018 wild-card round against the Cubs. The last two seasons have been atrocious for the Rockies as they finished the last full season in 2019 with a record of 71-91, only 35 games back of the Dodgers. Last season, the Rockies sputtered their way to a 26-34 record, which earned them fourth spot in the NL West, 17 games back of the eventual World Champion Dodgers.
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The Rockies will open the regular season on April 1 with a seven-game homestand that will see the Dodgers stop in for four and the Diamondbacks stop in for three. From there, the Rockies hit the road for six games with a three-game set against the San Francisco Giants and a return matchup with the LA Dodgers. The Rockies come into this season at +15000 to win the World Series, +8000 to win the NL Pennant and +6600 to topple the Dodgers and claim the NL West title. With a season win total set at 64.5, it figures to be a very long and miserable season in the Rocky Mountains.
Rockies 2021 Projected Lineup
Once upon a time, the Rockies lineup was as feared as any in the Major Leagues. This year, not so much. One look at the lineup and you’ll see why the win total is so low. As of writing this, the preferred Rockies lineup looks like this:
- Raimel Tapia
- Trevor Story
- Charlie Blackmon
- Ryan McMahon
- C.J Cron
- Sam Hilliard
- Brendan Rodgers
- Elias Diaz
- Pitchers Spot
Once upon a time, the Rockies lineup was as feared as any lineup in the Major Leagues. The top four batters were Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Ian Desmond, and Nolan Arenado batting cleanup. Fast forward to this year and only Blackmon remains from that quartet. And at 34 years old, he’s still going to be relied upon to lead the way offensively. Blackmon is coming off a season in which he hit .303 with six home runs and two stolen bases. If we look back at the last four seasons, Blackmon has just one year with a batting average that’s below .300, and that was in 2018 when he hit just .291. In that same span, Blackmon has tallied 127 home runs, scored 479 runs and drove in 342. The projections for this year are looking rather thin, however. Despite being projected to hit nearly .300 again, the home runs and RBIs are expected to drop off dramatically. That’s perhaps due to age or perhaps due to the rest of the lineup being terrible.
The guy right before him in the batting order, Story, is going to have a big role to play this season. He’s projected to hit 34 home runs and steal 26 bases while hitting for just under .280. Story has been a solid player through the first four years of his career as he’s hit more than 24 homers in each season and has driven in at least 72 runs. His career high is 37 home runs and 108 RBIs in 2018.
Further down the lineup, the roster thins out in a hurry. Cron, Hilliard, Rodgers and Diaz are relatively unknowns, with Cron projected to have the best year of the bunch. Cron opted out of last season, so a fresh player might just be what the Rockies need. He’s projected for 30 dingers this year. And with 81 games at Coors Field, it’s a very realistic number.
Rockies 2021 Projected Rotation & Closer
So, if the batting order isn’t going to put up many runs, it falls on the pitching staff to keep the Rockies in a lot of ball games. With the rotation they are going to be trotting out this year, I simply don’t see that happening.
The pitching staff consists of German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Jon Gray and Austin Gomber. It’s a relatively young staff, with Gray being the oldest at 29, so the potential for growth and improvement is there. However, none of these guys have electric stuff. And as I mentioned, the team plays 81 games at home, in a hitter-friendly park. That’s a recipe for disaster.
Marquez is the “ace” of the staff, and he sported a respectable 3.75 ERA in 13 games last year. He did, however, give up a ton of hits and walks (the most on the team) but also struck out 73, which was 27 more than Freeland did.
Jon Gray had a good year back in 2017, and many thought he could be the future of the Rockies’ pitching staff. His career has taken a very steep downwards trajectory, and the Rockies are now hoping he can just be a serviceable big-league pitcher.
As for the bullpen, it looks like the strongest part of the pitching staff, with Daniel Bard doing the closing. Bard posted six saves last year while accumulating a 3.65 ERA. He will have a pair of solid setup men working before him in the likes of Mychel Givens and Yency Almonde and a collection of outcasts in middle relief. I’m not sure the Rockies will be doing much winning this year, though, for the bullpen to come into play.
Rockies 2021 Predictions
FanGraphs projects Colorado to finish this year with a 66-96, which would place them dead last the NL West and 32 games back of the first-place Dodgers. I’ve already made up my mind about this team and it’s that they are going to be very bad this year. The win total is already super low, but I still have to take a shot with the under.
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