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2022 Houston Astros Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series

by Sean Barnard - 3/21/2022

Houston Astros predictions Justin Verlander

The Houston Astros have established themselves as a team to watch on a yearly basis as they have made solid playoff runs the past five seasons, which was highlighted by their World Series Championship in 2017. Houston was unable to secure their second World Series in franchise history last year as the Atlanta Braves defeated them in the league final. The Astros hope to get back on top this year, but their recent roster shifts could cause the team some problems.

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Offseason Moves:

Additions: Justin Verlander (re-signed) (SP), Niko Goodrum (SS), Hector Neris (RP)

Losses: Carlos Correa (SS), Kendall Graveman (RP), Zack Greinke (SP), Yimi Garcia (RP), Brooks Raley (RP)

The most notable loss for the Astros will be Carlos Correa, who has spent the past 7 seasons n Houston. The 27-year-old is a two-time all-star and finished 5th in the MVP race last season. Correa has been terrific during his time in Houston, but his injury history forced the Astros to pass on matching the 3-year $105.3 million deal that he inked with the Minnesota Twins. Another reason that may have motivated the Astros to move on is the lingering presence of Jeremey Pena, who had been tearing it up at triple-A. With Correa out of the way, Pena is expected to have an expanded role this season.

Niko Goodrum will also likely get some time at shortstop as Correa’s replacement after spending the previous four seasons with the Detroit Tigers. There was skepticism that Justin Verlander would come back to the team. However, with no proper replacement available, it made sense to extend the  16-year vet for two more seasons.

Expected Lineup- stats based on last season

1) Jose Altuve- .308 BA, 31 HR

2) Michael Brantley- .311 BA, 8 HR

3) Alex Bregman- .270 BA, 12 HR

4) Yordan Alvarez- .277 BA, 33 HR

5) Yuli Gurriel-.319 BA, 15 HR

6) Kyle Tucker- .294 BA, 30 HR

7) Chas McCormick- .257 14 HR

8) Jeremy Pena- .287 10 HR (AAA)

9) Martin Maldonado- .272 12 HR

The biggest wild card in the lineup is Jeremy Pena, who is the fourth-ranked prospect in the Astros farm system. The 23-year-old is an elite defender who is expected to have a long-term future at shortstop but can play other infield positions as well. Pena has made some progress in the batters’ box during the past few seasons in the minors and has an impressive walk rate as well.

The loss of Carlos Correa is noteworthy as he has been a huge part of this Astros team for the past seven seasons. Houston will have to try to find a way to replace the 155 hits and 26 home runs that he provided last season.

Expected Rotation:

Justin Verlander- 3.33.ERA (career)

Framber Valdez- 3.74 ERA (career)

Luis Garcia- 3.57 ERA (career)

Jose Urquidy- 3.55 ERA (career)

Cristian Javier- 3.53 ERA (career)

While Justin Verlander has been a very good pitcher for a long time, the questions about when his decline will be are starting to become legitimate. Verlander is now 39 years old with quite a few miles on his arm. Outside of Verlander, the Astros rotation is youthful. All four of the other projected starters are 28 years or younger. Cristian Javier is probably the biggest question mark, as he has only pitched 103 innings in the major league heading into this season.

Astros Predictions:

The Astros have the second-lowest World Series odds, trailing only the LA Dodgers in this category. Houston has odds between +900 and +1000 depending on the sportsbook, which is nearly twice what the Dodgers rank.

Their win total over/under is set at 92.5, which is the highest number of wins for any MLB team in this category. It is worth noting that even with the lockout and delayed season, the MLB is still playing the full 162 games this season, with the games that were already missed being scattered in throughout the season. Even with this adjustment, the season will only end 3 days later than normal.

While the Astros are certain to remain in the mix for competing for a championship, expectations seem to be a little too lofty for the franchise. While they have done a decent job attempting to find band-aid solutions to the players that they have left, the core of this Astros team is not the same as the one that won a championship in 2017. Preparing for the organization to take a slight step back this season and taking the under on season wins should prove to be a good bet.

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