2023 Kentucky Derby Jockeys: Handicapping and Analysis

by Joey House - 5/2/2023

Analyzing jockey performance is another key facet to handicapping horse races effectively. The style of the rider is almost as important as the running style of the horse. In a large field race like the Kentucky Derby, a fearless and experienced jockey can navigate traffic and position his horse for the best chance to triumph. All statistics for earnings, winning percentage and In the Money (ITM)% are only from the 2023 racing season.

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2. Verifying (15-1): Tyler Gaffalione

Both Tyler Gaffalione and the previous jockey, Manny Franco, are two of the youngest jockeys at age 28, but both have had prodigious careers. Gaffalione hasn't had much luck in his five previous Derbies, his best finish being 7th with War of Will in 2019. He looks to change that this year and is fourth among all jockeys for earnings at $5.8 million, an 18% winning percentage and a 44% ITM rate.

3. Two Phil's (12-1): Jareth Loveberry

While Loveberry is making his Kentucky Derby debut, he's definitely not a rookie, with more than 1,750 victories in a career that spans 19 years. So far this season, he has a 17% win rate and a 42% ITM mark for $1,798,849 in earnings. He's been on Two Phil's since his maiden was broken, winning multiple graded stakes.

5. Tapit Trice (5-1): Luis Saez

One of the true superstars in the jockey game, Luis Saez has been the model of consistency, ranking in the top 10 in both earnings and winnings since 2017. Derby fame has found him, but not in the desired way, as he was the rider of Maximum Security when he was disqualified in 2019. He currently sits in second place in earnings with over $7.7 million already, winning 20% of the time out and ITM 47%. Saez hooked up with Tapit Trice in February and has ridden him to three consecutive victories. They both figure to in the mix at the end on Saturday.

6. Kingsbarns (12-1): Jose Ortiz

Jose Ortiz is another excellent jockey who has yet to stand in the winner's circle at the Kentucky Derby. Since 2014, he has finished in the Top 5 in national earnings, save for the Covid season, when he was 7th. Even though he hasn't crossed the finish line first, he has been amongst the top five finishers in four of his seven Derby runs, highlighted by a second-place finish with Good Magic in 2018. This year he's won over $5 million in earnings while winning at a 15% clip and 49% ITM. He will be riding Kingsbarns for the first time, as his regular jockey elected to ride Angel of Empire. Kingsbarns couldn't get any better for a "substitute" rider.

10. Practical Move (10-1): Ramon Vazquez

A true journeyman jockey, Ramon Vazquez has found success at each stop in his long career. He's raced in only one other Derby, in 2015, aboard Mr. Z, and finished 13th. For 2023, he's winning at a 15% clip, ITM 39% and has earned $2.7 million so far. He's been aboard Practical Move for both of his key California Derby Prep races. With the absence of early speed in this year's Derby, Practical Move's pressing tactics could catapult Vazquez into Kentucky Derby history.

14. Angel of Empire (8-1): Flavien Prat

One of the most successful Derby riders in the field, French-native Prat has finished ITM in four out of the five Derbies he has ridden in, highlighted by the win (by disqualification) in 2019 aboard Country House. He's having another prolific season, having won over $7.2 million in earnings, winning at a 21% clip and ITM in 57% of his rides. He's been aboard Angel of Empire his entire stakes career, which includes the last two victories. If the right pace is set on Saturday, expect to see Angel of Empire streaking along the outside to get up in the money and maybe earn Prat a legitimate Kentucky Derby win.

15. Forte (3-1): Irad Ortiz, Jr

It is only fitting that the most successful jockey in 2023 is aboard the undeniable favorite for the 149th "Running of the Roses". A 4-time Eclipse Award winner, the only thing that has eluded him has been success in the Derby. In his previous six rides, he has failed to hit the board. Coming into Saturday's race, he is leading North American jockeys with a whopping $10,362,138 in earnings, a very impressive 26% win rate and an even better 60% ITM. He's been aboard Forte from race No. 1 and looks to finally taste Derby success with the once-beaten Forte.

Here are the rest of the Derby jockeys with their mounts and their 2023 stats:

1. Hit Show (30-1): Manny Franco

$5,386,918 in earnings, 27% win rate and 57% ITM

4. Confidence Game (20-1): James Graham

$2,287,601 in earnings, 13% win rate and 40% ITM

7. Reincarnate (50-1): John Velazquez

$3,282,421 in earnings, 17% win rate and 47% ITM

8. Mage (15-1): Javier Catellano

$3,509,787 in earnings, 15% win rate and 44% ITM

9. Skinner (20-1): Juan Hernandez

$4,507,998 in earnings, 24% win rate and 61% ITM

11. Disarm (30-1): Joel Rosario

$5,052,569 in earnings, 12% win rate and 40% ITM

12. Jace's Road (50-1): Florent Geroux

$3,123,981 in earnings, 24% win rate and 56% ITM

13. Sun Thunder (50-1): Brian Hernandez, Jr.

$2,737,105 in earnings, 19% win rate and 45% ITM

16. Raise Cain (50-1): Gerardo Corrales

$2,784,994 in earnings, 16% win rate and 45% ITM

17. Derma Sotogake (10-1) : Christophe Lemaire

Based in Japan

18. Rocket Can (30-1): Junior Alvardo

$3,888,595 in earnings, 12% win rate and 34% ITM

19. Lord Miles (30-1): Paco Lopez

$2,928,205 in earnings, 14% win rate and 42% ITM

20. Continuar (50-1): Ryusei Sakai

Based in Japan

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