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2022 March Madness Bracket Predictions: Midwest Region

by Robert Ferringo - 3/16/2022

March Madness bracket predictions Midwesr Region Keegan Murray Iowa Hawkeyes

Star power is the name of the game in the Midwest Region. We’ve seen superstar players singlehandedly carry their teams through amazing March runs in past NCAA Tournaments. And if you are looking for guys that can achieve that feat over the next two weeks, then peruse the heartland.

Five of the 15 finalists for the Wooden Award, given annually to the best player in college basketball, are in the Midwest bracket. That’s the most of any region.

Ochai Agbaji (Kansas), Keegan Murray (Iowa), Jabari Smith (Auburn), Johnny Davis (Wisconsin) and Walker Kessler (Auburn) are all future pros. And apart from Kessler (who I would rank No. 14 of the 15 finalists), the top four guys all have the potential to be NBA stars. In fact, the fate of this region will likely be decided by which of these studs plays the best over the next four games.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

Here are Doc’s Sports March Madness bracket predictions for the Midwest Region:

No. 1 Seed: Kansas Jayhawks (+160 to win Midwest Region)

With three wins in three days last weekend in Kansas City, the Jayhawks reestablished themselves as legitimate national championship contenders. The Jayhawks played sharp and looked dominant while earning their victories by an average of 15 points apiece. They appear to be playing their best basketball at the right time. Ochai Agbaji has been outstanding, and big man David McCormack needs to continue his solid work on both ends of the floor. The X-factor for this team is Remy Martin. The fifth-year senior has battled injuries all season long. But this is the final opportunity for a guy that has had some monster games in his career.

Kansas NCAA Tournament Predictions: Kansas has only been to one Final Four since winning the 2008 national championship. And that’s despite six No. 1 seeds and never being seeded lower than No. 4. It hasn’t exactly been lean years in Lawrence, but the Jayhawk faithful must be getting a little twitchy when it comes to getting that next title. It won’t happen this year. But I do expect a very deep run from this group.

No. 2 Seed: Auburn Tigers (+225)

Auburn started the season 22-1 and claimed the school’s first ever No. 1 ranking. Freshman Jabari Smith can do absolutely everything offensively, and superb sophomores Wendell Green, Walker Kessler and K.D. Johnson make up a typical long, athletic Bruce Pearl core. Auburn hasn’t been great on the road this season. And they have come back to earth a bit down the stretch, going just 5-4 in their last nine games. I also have questions about Pearl as a tournament coach. He did guide the Tigers to a Final Four in 2019. But he’s failed to make it out of the opening weekend in half of his 10 career tournament appearances. The Tigers are a team that can put points on the board in a hurry. And they haven’t lost a game by more than six points this season.

Auburn NCAA Tournament Predictions: Auburn was the best team in one of the best conferences in the nation. That automatically puts them on the short list of title contenders. Auburn’s problems outside of its home gym are an issue. As is their inexperience. I think their most difficult task will be avoiding the opening weekend upset. If they get clear, they can play their way into an Elite Eight showdown with Kansas.

No. 3 Seed: Wisconsin Badgers (+900)

This Badgers team is one of the biggest overachievers in the country. The Badgers lost as much talent and experience as any team in the nation from last year’s roster and started the season unranked. Yet they earned a share of the Big Ten regular season crown and this No. 3 seed. The chemistry on this year’s squad is infinitely better, and that has made all the difference. Sophomore wing Johnny Davis is versatile and athletic, and point guard Brad Davison is a bulldog. However, I can’t help but think that this team has peaked. They closed the regular season with an atrocious loss to Nebraska at home (costing them an outright title) and followed that with a one-and-done appearance in the conference tourney. Wisconsin is a mediocre 9-5 in its last 14 games, and its 12 wins by five points or less makes me think these guys aren’t as good as their record.

Wisconsin NCAA Tournament Predictions: No team has ever won a national championship after losing the first game of their conference tournament. Wisconsin isn’t going to snap that streak. But its style of play is a perfect foil to Auburn’s, and the Badgers could be just the team to end the Tigers’ title dreams in the Sweet 16.

No. 4 Seed: Providence Friars (+1400)

Ed Cooley has been a steady, consistent coach for a long time. Yet in his first 10 years in Providence, he has just one NCAA tournament win in five attempts. The Friars’ No. 4 seed is the highest in school history, and their Big East regular season championship was their first in 43 years in the conference. It’s been a banner year for Cooley’s crew. Can they continue to set benchmarks for the program? Providence is one of the most experienced teams in the nation, leaning on four fifth-year starters. They aren’t great on either end of the floor. But they have excellent chemistry and play hard for the full 40.

Providence NCAA Tournament Predictions: Over the last 40 years, only 14 teams seeded No. 4 or worse have made it to the national title game. Providence doesn’t have the goods to become No. 15. That said, I think they are better than they are being given credit for and are capable of a Sweet 16 surge.

No. 5 Seed: Iowa Hawkeyes (+350)

March basketball is about being hot at the right time. And few teams are playing as well and are as hot as the Hawkeyes. Iowa won four games in four days – convincingly – to earn the Big Ten tournament title. They are 9-1 straight up and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games, and 11 of their past 12 wins (during a 12-2 run) have come by double-digits. They aren’t beating teams – they are destroying them. The Hawkeyes are a trendy pick for a deep NCAA tourney run in part because of the dynamic work of freshman Keegan Murray. They also have a bevy of shooters, and Iowa is No. 5 in the country in scoring with 83.3 points per game.

Iowa NCAA Tournament Predictions: Iowa has not been to the Sweet 16 yet this century, and they have just one Sweet 16 appearance since 1988. If they shoot as well in this tournament as they did last weekend, they are going to be a tough out. Richmond, Providence and South Dakota State aren’t pushovers, though. And this program still has a lot to prove.

No. 6 Seed: LSU Tigers (+1200)

Things have gone off the rails for LSU in recent weeks. After a 15-1 start to the campaign, the Tigers have gone 7-10 in their last 17 games, including a bumbling 3-4 in their last seven. Making matters worse, head coach Will Wade was fired last weekend for recruiting violations, and this young group is in chaos. Interim coach Kevin Nickleberry, who has just one winning season in 12 previous tries, will take over. LSU is one of the best defensive teams in the country. But they can’t shoot and can be brutal to watch offensively.

LSU Tournament Predictions: Few teams have the level of negative momentum that the Tigers do heading into the tournament. They have just two wins over teams in the tournament field, and their last one came on Jan. 8. These guys are going nowhere fast.

Best first-round match up: No. 4 Providence vs. No. 13 South Dakota State

It is too bad that this is one of the first games on Thursday’s slate because I feel like this deserves a lot more attention. South Dakota State is the No. 1 offensive team in the country. They are No. 2 in scoring with 87.2 points per game and No. 1 in field goal shooting (52.7 percent) and 3-point shooting (45.1 percent). These guys can bury it from anywhere and could deliver us our first upset of the tournament. Providence is no slouch. They are the Big East regular season champions and won’t go quietly. But after five straight NCAA tournament losses, the Jackrabbits are intent on getting that first W.

Best potential second-round matchup: No. 4 Providence vs. No. 5 Iowa

Both teams have to take on top-tier mid-major programs in the first round. And, frankly, I don’t expect both to make it out alive. That said, this would be a hell of a game pitting Big East and Big Ten champs against one another. I’m sure that senior Nate Watson would have a thing or two to teach sophomore Keegan Murray.

Upset Alert (first round): No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Colgate

Providence is obviously on upset alert. But this is a game that might not be on enough people’s radars. Colgate has overcome a 4-10 start – which included a 100-85 win over Syracuse – to go 19-1 and storm their way into the tournament. Last year this same group of Colgate players was tied with Arkansas with less than nine minutes to play before falling. And in the three years prior, the Patriot League rep had lost by an average of just under six points per game.

Upset Alert (second round): No. 2 Auburn vs. No. 10 Miami

Miami can’t match up with the overall talent and firepower that Auburn brings into this one. However, Miami has three extremely experienced guards, including 24-year-olds Kameron McGusty and Charlie Moore. Miami beat Duke once (and nearly twice), so they have proven that they can take out a top seeded side. The ACC was a mess this season. But this would be an opportunity for the league to get a high-profile W and change the shape of the tournament in the process.

Dark Horse team: No. 5 Iowa

It is kind of hard to call Iowa a dark horse because of what they did last weekend. But none of the other middle seeds in this region have the same upside that the Hawkeyes possess. Again, it is really tough to trust Big Ten teams because this conference has been such a joke in the Big Dance in recent seasons. Despite that, there is no denying that if the Hawkeyes play like they did in the Big Ten tourney that they are a serious contender in this region.

Team That Makes Me Nervous: No. 3 Wisconsin

Did I mention how bad the Big Ten has been in recent tournaments? The conference hasn’t produced a national champion in 22 years, and last season eight of their nine tournament teams failed to make it out of the opening weekend. I like Wisconsin. Davis is legit. Their chemistry and style of play are underrated. And they have plenty of serious wins on their resume. The Badgers have Elite Eight potential. However, I do think that this team is trending in the wrong direction after back-to-back sloppy L’s. How they play in the opener could set the tone for what should be a consequential group in his region.

2022 Midwest Region Predictions: There are pitfalls and landmines all over the first two rounds of this bracket; welcome to March. However, I will still side with talent, and I like Kansas, Iowa, Wisconsin and Auburn to all endure into the Sweet 16. If that is the case, I think that Wisconsin will have an advantage playing in Chicago against Auburn. And regardless of who comes out of that game, I think that if Kansas gets back to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2018 that they will have enough momentum to carry through and win this region.

Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writer's Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has posted 12 of 15 winning seasons. He is looking for a monster March run and you can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.

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