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2025 March Madness Bracket Predictions: South Region

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/17/2025

March Madness bracket predictions South Region Jaden Akins Michigan State Spartans

The East Region and West Region are the two weaker regions in terms of noise, as the top seeds should find themselves getting deep into the tournament. VCU and Drake are Cinderella candidates out of those regions, and the potential Elite Eight matchup of St. John’s and Florida could be the game of the year.

The Midwest Region is going to be the most exciting region to follow, with a lot of upset bids in the first round and some legit mid major squads who could make a deep run in the tournament.

The South Region is a gauntlet. Auburn earned the top overall seed in the tournament, but they may also find themselves as the first one seed to fall. They will get either an incredibly hot Louisville team or an underrated Creighton team in the second round and then a potential rematch against Texas A&M in the Sweet 16. Michigan State may cruise their way to the Elite Eight since Iowa State is not at full strength, while Yale, New Mexico, and UC San Diego have put their opponents on upset alert. Let’s take a look at the top seeds in the region and identify some key matchups.

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*Value in parentheses reflects odds to win the region

No. 1 Seed: Auburn Tigers (+100)

The Auburn Tigers are the tourney’s top overall seed after heading into the NCAAs with a 28-5 record. Johni Broome is the best player in the country. He is averaging 18.9 PPG, bringing in 10.6 RPG and averaging 2.3 BPG. He also leads the team with 30.1 MPG. Broome leads the Tigers’ seven-man rotation that has five players shooting better than 37% from deep. Chad Baker-Mazara is an incredible compliment to Broome. And when he is on, he is one of the best guards in the country. Miles Kelly is shooting better than 91% from the charity stripe, while Denver Jones is shooting better than 41% from deep. Baker-Mazara can play a little undisciplined at times, which is when Auburn runs into trouble. The depth isn’t special, and the Tigers will need to avoid their top guys getting into foul trouble. It is worth noting that Auburn has lost three of their last four games heading into the Big Dance.

It is hard to pick against a No. 1 Seed. Auburn could run into Texas A&M in the Sweet 16, and this is a team they have already lost to this season. Their second-round matchup against Louisville or Creighton could be incredibly problematic as well, with both teams looking solid in their conference tournaments. If they can survive their second-round matchup, Auburn should reach the Elite Eight and likely the Final Four. Auburn has a high ceiling in this tournament, but they could very easily lose in the Round of 32.

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No. 2 Seed: Michigan State Spartans (+470)

Michigan State took a huge step forward this season, claiming the Big Ten regular-season crown and finishing the season with a 26-5 record. They lost just three conference games this season, and all five of their losses on the year were by eight points or less. The Spartans have won eight of their last nine games and are primed for a deep run. Michigan State has incredible depth, as they have 10 players averaging more than 13 MPG and seven players averaging 7 PPG or more. Jaden Akins leads the team with 12.7 PPG, with Jase Richardson right on his heels with 12 PPG. Richardson is the team’s best three-point shooter, as he has shot 41.2% from beyond the arc. The offense is average for the Spartans, but they have thrived thanks to their stout defense that ranked third in the Big Ten in PPG allowed (67.2). They held opponents to just 27.9% from deep, which not only led the conference, but that number ranked second in the nation.

Michigan State’s defense is good enough to carry them to the Final Four this season. It helps that Iowa State is not at full strength and that Auburn will be battle tested in the Round of 32 and the Sweet 16. The Spartans don’t shoot well from deep, and that could be problematic for Tom Izzo’s team. However, it is hard to see this defense getting beat until deeper in the tournament. I don’t think this team can win it all, but they can certainly get to the Elite Eight and have a chance to reach the Final Four if things go their way.

No. 3 Seed: Iowa State Cyclones (+550)

The Cyclones are benefitting from an incredible beginning to their year. They started 17-2 and picked up wins against Marquette, Baylor, and Kansas before ending the season going just 8-7 over their final 15 games. The Cyclones have lost Keshon Gilbert for the tournament. Gilbert was the Cyclones’ second-leading scorer and was leading the team with 4.1 APG. They still have a solid group with Curtis Jones (17.1 PPG, 37.2% 3P%) leading the way, but now depth becomes a question. We saw in their last game against BYU that the Cyclones got into some foul trouble early and they ended up losing in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. Despite their struggles at the end of the season, Iowa State still managed 80.4 PPG, which was the fourth most in the Big 12, and their defense can be one of the best units in the country when they are on.

They were already inconsistent down the stretch and are now without Gilbert for the tournament. With that, it seems likely that the Cyclones season may come to an end in the Round of 32 if they match up against Ole Miss, with the Sweet 16 being their ceiling. Iowa State might be the sixth or seventh best team in this region without being at full strength, so avoid sending them far in your brackets.

No. 4 Seed: Texas A&M Aggies (+1200)

Texas A&M struggled down the stretch, losing five of their last seven games, including being upset by Texas in the SEC Tournament. The Aggies do have an incredible defense. They finished second in the SEC in allowed PPG, allowing just 67.9 PPG, and they held opponents to just 40.3% from the floor. They also led the nation in offensive rebounding, bringing in 16.2 offensive RPG. They picked up resume-building wins against Creighton, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Missouri, and Auburn. Wade Taylor IV continues to be the biggest offensive weapon for the Aggies. He has averaged 15.7 PPG this season while also leading the team with 4.3 APG. This roster features five players who average more than 4.5 RPG and has 10 players who are averaging double-digit MPG.

Texas A&M has already beaten Auburn this season, and they could potentially meet again in the Sweet 16. However, do not sleep on the Yale Bulldogs. They are a team that can score, and they can get hot from deep. If the Aggies fall behind in this one, they are not built to for big comebacks, especially since they struggle from beyond the arc. Yale does match up well against the Aggies, but Texas A&M is the better team. If they can beat the Bulldogs, they match up very well against Michigan and should get another chance at Auburn… but their ceiling is the Sweet 16.

No. 5 Seed: Michigan Wolverines (+2400)

Michigan has been on a rollercoaster ride since the beginning of March. They finished the regular season losing their last three games by a combined 43 points before they went into the conference tournament and beat three tournament teams and won the Big Ten Tournament title. Seven of the nine losses for Michigan came at the hands of tournament teams, while they were able to boost the resume by knocking off some of the top teams in the conference tournament. Vladislav Goldin leads the Wolverines offense with 16.7 PPG while also bringing in 6.8 RPG, and the center is shooting 62.3% from the floor. Danny Wolf and Tre Donaldson are the other two Michigan players who are averaging double-digit PPG, while Wolf is leading the team with 9.8 RPG.

Michigan got hot when it mattered most, and they won their conference tournament. However, their seeding may be inflated as a result. The ceiling for the Wolverines is the Sweet 16, but they may run into trouble in their first-round matchup, and they may get shutdown against Texas A&M in a potential Round of 32 matchup. Their first-round opponent is taking a 15-game winning streak into the tournament, and they led the country in SPG differential with a +5.3 mark while finishing second in the nation with a +18.1 PPG differential. The Wolverines won’t make it out of the first weekend.

No. 6 Seed: Ole Miss Rebels (+2100)

Ole Miss is another team in this region that struggled down the stretch. The Rebels started the season 15-2 before finishing with a 7-9 record. All 11 of their losses this season came against tournament teams, including three losses to Auburn. They did prove they could beat the top tier teams, as they picked up wins against Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, and BYU. They have a roster that features six double-digit scorers, with Sean Pedulla leading the way with 14.9 PPG. Jaylen Murray is another capable three-point threat, shooting 37.5% from beyond the arc. These Rebels have a lot of weapons, and they rarely turn the ball over. If their defense can step up, the Rebels may be a sleeper team to follow; they sure are battle tested.

The Rebels are a complete team and should be considered to reach the Sweet 16, especially since Iowa State isn’t healthy, and they could find their way to the Elite Eight as they could give the Spartans a run for their money. Chris Beard has a ton of tournament experience, and he has completely revitalized the Rebels basketball program. Watch out for these battle-tested Rebels.

Upset Alert (First Round): No. 10 Seed: New Mexico Lobos vs No. 7 Seed: Marquette Golden Eagles

The Lobos lost some significant players to the portal last offseason, but they figured out a way to win the Mountain West regular season crown. Donovan Dent is one of the best scorers in the country, as he averaged 20.6 PPG this season and shot better than 40% from beyond the arc. Nelly Junior Joseph averaged 14 PPG and 11.2 RPG and forms a star duo for the Lobos. The Golden Eagles have been cold lately, and they have a depth problem. This game will be a shootout between Dent and Kam Jones, and the Lobos have the edge in creating second-chance opportunities. Watch out for the Lobos taking down this Big East foe.

Upset Alert (Second Round): No. 8 Seed: Louisville Cardinals/No. 9 Seed: Creighton Bluejays vs No. 1 Seed: Auburn Tigers

Both Creighton and Louisville made their conference tournament finals. And because they lost, their seeding was hurt. However, they are both capable of upending the Tigers in the second round. The Bluejays won four straight heading into their conference final matchup against St. John’s before the Red Storm pulled away late in the game. Louisville has won 21 of their last 23 games and took Duke to the later part of the conference final. If it’s Creighton, Ryan Kalkbrenner would be an incredibly difficult matchup for Broome, while the Cardinals are a complete team with some exciting players like Chucky Hepburn and Terrence Edwards Jr., while also having some solid depth behind them. It may not happen, but Auburn could be the first one seed to exit the tournament.

Dark Horse Team: No. 9 Seed Creighton Bluejays

Creighton is the best dark horse candidate in the tournament. Kalkbrenner is one of the most underappreciated stars in the country, as the big man is averaging 19.4 PPG and 8.8 RPG while also racking up 2.7 BPG and shooting 65.5% from the floor. This team would have won the Big East if Pop Isaacs hadn’t got hurt. Steven Ashworth and Jamiya Neal have stepped up in his absence, with Ashworth being the Bluejays biggest deep threat. They have picked up wins against St. John’s, Marquette, UConn, and Kansas this season. Creighton has a legit Elite Eight ceiling.

Over Hyped Team: No. 5 Seed: Michigan Wolverines

The Wolverines are the over hyped team and should not be a five seed in this tournament. Ten of their last 12 wins have been decided by four points or less. And while they were wins, with that small of a margin and a high frequency, there is an element of luck to it. Their luck could continue into the tournament. They are hot after winning their conference tournament, but it is hard to see this team getting out of the first weekend.

Region Predictions

Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and the winner of Creighton and Louisville are the three teams to pay attention to here. The Aggies at +1200 to win the region are a great value pick, especially with matching up well, and already having beat, Auburn, and with the Tigers getting a tough test in their Round of 32 game. Ole Miss is another sneaky team that matches up well against most of the teams in the region, and they have some of the best depth in this portion of the bracket. With Iowa State hurt, the Rebels could take advantage of that and work their way into a Sweet 16 matchup against Michigan State. If the Spartans lose, the Rebels could find themselves in the Elite Eight. Creighton may be the most underrated team in the entire tournament, but they have to beat Louisville first. Give me the quiet and disciplined Aggies (+1200) to win the South Region and reach the Final Four.

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