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2022 Minnesota Twins Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series

by Sean Barnard - 4/6/2022

Minnesota Twins predictions and odds to win the World Series Jorge Polanco

Following back-to-back AL Central titles in 2019 and 2020, the Minnesota Twins ended last in the division with a record of 73-89 in 2021. Despite this, hopes are still fairly high for the Twins as they have been one of the most active teams in baseball since the lockout has ended.

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Notable Additions:

The highlight of the offseason was the addition of Carlos Correa. The former Astros shortstop was given a 3-year contract worth $105 million after coming in fifth in MVP voting last season. Correa hit .279 last season and knocked in 26 home runs, so the Twins will be excited to add the star to the lineup.

Minnesota also made waves by trading for right-handed pitcher Sonny Gray in exchange for their 2021 first-round draft pick, Chase Petty. Gray will be counted on to play a major role in the pitching rotation, which greatly struggled last season. The 32-year-old is expected to be the anchor of the rotation and play a key role in getting them back on track.

Notable Losses:

The biggest loss of the offseason was third-baseman Josh Donaldson. However, Minnesota was able to bring back Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela in the trade with the Yankees. Donaldson’s bat played a major role as he accounted for 26 home runs last year. Gio Urshela will serve as Donaldson’s replacement and Gary Sanchez is expected to step into the starting catcher role this season. The Twins also lost a few valuable bullpen arms and will be without former DH Nelson Cruz.

Projected Lineup (2021 stats):

  1. Byron Buxton (CF)- .306 BA 19 HR
  2. Luis Arraez (DH)- .294 BA 2 HR
  3. Carlos Correa (SS)- .279 BA 26 HR
  4. Jorge Polanco (2B)- 269 BA 33 HR
  5. Miguel Sano (1B)- .223 BA 30 HR
  6. Max Kepler (RF)- .211 BA 19 HR
  7. Gary Sanchez (C)- .204 BA 23 HR
  8. Alex Kirilloff (LF)- .251 BA 8 HR
  9. Gio Urshela (3B)- .267 BA 14 HR

The Twins’ offense simply did not cut it last season, which made the addition of Carlos Correa necessary. In years past, Minnesota has found its identity as a power-hitting team that is able to outscore their opponents, but they were unable to find success last year. If Byron Buxton can remain healthy, it would help out in a major way, and the Twins gave him a 7-year $100 million deal in the hopes this will be the case.

Projected Rotation (2021 stats):

  1. Sonny Gray- 4.19 ERA
  2. Dylan Bundy- 6.06 ERA
  3. Bailey Ober-4.19 ERA
  4. Joe Ryan- 4.05 ERA
  5. Lewis Thorpe- 4.70 ERA

The most notable addition to the pitching staff is Gray, although there are still questions surrounding his production. Kenta Maeda (Tommy John surgery) and Randy Dobak (middle finger injury) are both expected to make a positive impact on the pitching rotation, but each will begin the season on the 60-day injured list.

It was a disappointing season for the pitching staff last season, which started when they traded their No. 1 starter, Jose Berrios, to the Blue Jays midway through last season. Michael Pineda was also lost to the Detroit Tigers in free agency, so the Twins will head into this season with a mostly unproven rotation.

The bullpen was also a cause for concern as they used 29 different pitchers to eat up innings last year. Two of their top three closers that were used last season left in the offseason. And outside of Taylor Rogers, there is some uncertainty surrounding the bullpen as a whole.

Betting Lines:

When taking an optimistic view of the Twins, it is important to note that Covid outbreaks played a negative role in their season last year. Minnesota had three games postponed on a West Coast trip due to the lack of numbers and lost 8 of their last 11 games in April while being shorthanded. However, you can certainly take a more negative view as there are plenty of holes in the current roster despite the changes made this offseason.

Unsurprisingly, the Twins are a longshot to win the World Series at +6000, and it would be wise to stay away from this. Minnesota currently holds the longest streak for consecutive playoff losses in all North American professional sports as they have ended in the loss column for their last 18 playoff games.

It is important to note that the rest of the AL Central is fairly weak as the Twin hold the second-shortest odds to win the division at +475, trailing only the White Sox. The over/under for wins is set at 81.5 games on the season, with the Twins having +175 odds of making the postseason. Carlos Correa will provide some legitimate star power to the roster and should shine with the Twins, but the team as a whole has too many notable concerns. Taking a flyer on Correa to lead the league in hits at a +3500 line holds some value, but you can feel confident in taking under 81.5 wins for Minnesota this season.

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