2020 MLB MVP Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
As bettors, we’ve never been in this sort of pickle before. With a shortened season on the horizon, it’s hard to know what the MVP’s stats will look like when all is said and done. Will there be multiple hitters hitting better than .350? Can a starting pitcher get so hot to start the season and never lose a game?
There are so many questions. All we can do is try to find facts that support our bets. There’s nothing to fairly compare this season to.
The NL MVP
Ronald Acuna Jr. +400
Christian Yelich +450
Mookie Betts: +600
Juan Soto: +800
Cody Bellinger +900
Fernando Tatis Jr. +900
My Pick: Christian Yelich +450
While it seems like forever, Christian Yelich won the NL MVP in 2018. Just last season, some believed Yelich was robbed from winning the award in back-to-back seasons. In that 2018 season to win the MVP, Yelich hit .326. He also added 36 home runs, 110 RBI’s, 22 stolen bases and won the Silver Slugger award along with the MVP.
To get a solid idea of what will be needed to win the MVP this season, we can look at cutting a normal full season in thirds.
Yelich would then have 12 homers and 36 RBI’s in about 54 games. He would add seven stolen bases.
12 homers and 36 RBI’s seem low. We know baseball is a streaky sport. Hitters will go in and out of slumps throughout the season. We’re on a mission to find the player that will be the least likely to slump this season.
12 homers and 36 RBI’s will not win the MVP in a shortened season. One or two players will more than likely be able to reach 20 homers. Why not Yelich?
We’re looking for a guy who will ultimately not strike out much. Yelich struck out only 118 times in 130 games.
Acuna struck out 188 times in 156, while Juan Soto struck out 132 times in 150 games.
Mookie Betts is in an entirely new division, and it’ll likely take him some time to get accustomed to an entirely different setting.
In 2019, Yelich’s season was cut short due to a knee injury in mid-September. He was hitting .329 at the time and had 44 homers with 97 RBI’s. He produced more stolen bases and became the 13th player in MLB history to have 40 homers and 30 stolen bases in a season.
The MVP is likely going to come down to homers and batting average. Yelich has been tremendous in his first two seasons with Milwaukee. He’s got the power, the average, and doesn’t strike out too much.
The AL MVP
Mike Trout: +140
Gleyber Torres: +1000
Aaron Judge +1200
Alex Bregman: +1200
Francisco Lindor +1500
Rafael Devers. +1500
My Pick: Mike Trout +140
Picking Mike Trout is an obvious choice, and the oddsmakers know it. Mike Trout is +140, while no other AL player is below +1000 or worse odds. Trout has won the AL MVP three of the last six seasons and won the 2019 MVP despite playing in just 134 games last season.
However, Trout has never won back-to-back titles. And since he won it last year, there’s a case as to why he won’t win it this year.
The difference for Trout is that the Los Angeles Angels have now signed a premier bat in Anthony Rendon during the off-season. This should help Trout add more RBI’s or score more runs while also giving him protection in the lineup.
Depending on how the Angels build their lineup, having Rendon in the lineup should increase Trout’s RBI total.
Trout hit a career-high 45 homers last season while batting .291 on the season. The power and average will need to continue.
If you would prefer and longer shot in the AL, I would suggest looking at any Yankees player. The Yankees seem to never be healthy. We’ve seen long absences from Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez. If any of these players miss some time during the season, Gleybar Torrres seems like the likely candidate to pick up the slack.
Torres hit .278 last season with 38 home runs and 90 RBI’s. A lot went right for Torres last season playing in Yankee Stadium. If he continues to play at the level that he did last season, then there will be a legitimate case for Torres when the season is completed in 2020.
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